Starting an Arena and letting it expire after 2 losses

Someone told me that if you start an arena run right, stop at 2 losses then when it expires cause of new rotation you will get a free arena pass? That true ? 

yes, i've done it multiple times

And you get the key for however many wins you got.

You get a free arena ticket when the expansion drops IF you have an arena run active at the time.

I don’t know how this is going to work this time, because the Arena was updated way too early.

Maybe that was their way of disrupting the pattern.  By making the change to Arena happen sooner than the expansion.  However, it was most likely just a mistake.  Blizzard isn’t THAT clever!

I had a warning from hearthstone yesterday as "You have an active arena run and 4 days left to complete it." even though Arena has been rotated. I had that warning before so much times and whenever I got this warning, I always got ticket so maybe I am not who to confirm but I'm %100 sure we will get an arena ticket.

It would be weird to change their ticket policy without a proper announcement.

They know the procedure of leaving one run open is established, it would be extremely rude and superficial on their customers to change that without any proper notification.

Is there any possible strategy to maximise the profit? Is a 2-2 run better to be saved for the reset then a 7-2 for example? Both have Pros and cons... 

Probably not worth the thought but how do you approach it? 

I tried to mathematicly solve this but it‘s more complexe then i thought. Guessed winrate, average profit per win and stuff

Quote From Bersak

Is there any possible strategy to maximise the profit? Is a 2-2 run better to be saved for the reset then a 7-2 for example? Both have Pros and cons... 

Probably not worth the thought but how do you approach it? 

I tried to mathematicly solve this but it‘s more complexe then i thought. Guessed winrate, average profit per win and stuff

It's easier than you think.

The only definitive factor towards the choice of risking beyond x-2 is your knowledge of your average Arena skills, compared with the value of x.

But there is no final maths of a better bet, simply because variance is too great for the single case.

Quote From Bersak

Is there any possible strategy to maximise the profit? Is a 2-2 run better to be saved for the reset then a 7-2 for example? Both have Pros and cons... 

Probably not worth the thought but how do you approach it? 

I tried to mathematicly solve this but it‘s more complexe then i thought. Guessed winrate, average profit per win and stuff

Honestly there's no real point to forcing yourself to 'hold' to a spot.  If you want to keep playing when you are at 2 losses that's fine.  If you lose, just start another run.

The only serious requirement is this: to have an active arena run when the reset happens.  I've literally had times when the only literal thing I had literal time for is to open the program, start a run, pick random cards, then close the program.  It was literally 0-0.  Literally.  Note that this isn't an issue since I start a new set spamming arena anyway.

Basically, unless you litera(ok I'll stop) never play arena, it's a benefit to have SOMETHING up.

Even if you go 0-0, let it reset, then run the free ticket and retire at 0-0, and get the worst reward at each time, you get 2 packs, and 2 common cards.  10 dust and 200 gold worth of packs for 150 gold. You're 50 gold and 10 dust ahead without playing a single game.  

If you really REALLY want to min max it, I can see ONE way to lose out: every arena run that ends in 3 losses is just that, a normal arena run. And any time you get less than 50 gold/dust you technically lose out.  That happens at 2/3 or less and sometimes happens at 3/3 (4 wins guarantees at least 50 gold).  So playing at 1/2, 2/2, or 3/2 risks you getting a third loss and losing out.  Again, a reset arena run, even at 0/0 is always an advantage.  

So if you really REALLY want to min-max things I would go with this:

Start an arena run. Play it to 2 losses.  If you are 4 wins or more at that point, play the whole thing out, then start a new run.  

If you are 3 wins or less when you hit 2 losses, STOP and let that one sit for a reset.  

And, of course, if you run out of time, just stop where you are.  No point forcing 2 losses just to 'be at 2 losses'.  If you don't have a run going, you can leave it at 0/0 before you close.

Then after reset, play as normal.

But really this is nitpicking.  So honestly if you want my advice, I'll TL;DR it for you:

TL:DR Summary

1. JUST #()$#)( play.    

2.  There IS a min-maxed exact way to maximize this thing, but I'm playing the Snob card here:  If you aren't interested in reading more than this summary then sacrificing some enjoyment of the game to make sure you don't accidentally lose 20 gold isn't that important.  So again.

Play Arena like you normally do, a lot, nothing at all, I don't care.

Do NOT close the game without an Arena run open, even if it's 0/0 with random cards picked.  

Reset happens.  play the run.  Even if you go 0/3 you won.  Enjoy.