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HGC Week 6 - Day 1 - Survival Guide

To borrow a line from r/cfb...

"Wake the f*** up!!! It's gameday!"

And wake the f*** up you should. Because right out of the gate, we have, according to my elo numbers, the number 1 and number 4 team in the world breaking into the Nexus. Heading into Europe we'll see a rematch of Fnatic and Team Expert, a game the latter actually won in the Kings of the Storm finals. Then we head to NA, where Gale Force will be fighting against sudden NA favorite Team 8 to keep their #1 seed dreams alive.

Let's get to it then!

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World Elo Ratings

Methodology summarized in this post. Source code is available here.

Rank	Team	Elo Rating
1	MVP Black	1893
2	L-5	1856
3	Team Dignitas	1746
4	Tempest	1713
5	Fnatic	1712
6	Team Liquid	1678
7	E-star	1664
8	Team Expert	1611
9	ce	1558
10	Gale Force eSports	1549
11	Team 8	1542
12	Mighty	1537
13	B-Step	1517
14	Tempo Storm	1514
15	SuperPerfectTeam	1513
16	GG	1511
17	MVP Miracle	1499
18	Playing Ducks	1477
19	Tricked eSports	1476
20	Hots Lady--NEW	1476
21	RPG--NEW	1462
22	X-Team	1451
23	Team Blossom	1442
24	Superstars	1424
25	Team Naventic	1419
26	Ocenia	1414
27	Keep It Simple--NEW	1394
28	Latin America	1380
29	Taiwan	1359
30	Southeast Asia	1354
31	No Tomorrow	1332
32	Raven	1331
33	Team Freedom	1330
34	beGenius	1313
35	Synergy	1301
36	Start Over Again	1261

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HGC Korea

Match 1 - Start time 5 a.m. EST

MVP Black	Team Name	Tempest
#1	World Elo Ranking	#4
#1	Region Elo Ranking	#3
#2	Region Standings Place	#3
6 - 1	Current record	5 - 2

MVP Black may currently be second place in Korea behind L5, but they are coming off beating L5 at the Eastern Clash. Tempest is certainly a factor in Korea, but in total went 0-6 against their Korean counterpart L5 at the Eastern Clash. While Tempest has struggled to keep up with MVP Black and L5, they are still a top world team, going 8-0 against the Chinese teams. Tempest currently sits on the outside of possible to get the coveted number 1 seed. If they are going to have any chance of getting there, this series is a must win. That said, it's MVP Black. Nothing is going to come easy.

Set your alarm clock. This one is worth it.

First half result: MVP Black 3 : 1 Tempest

Computer projection:

Team 1	3-0	3-1	3-2	2-3	1-3	0-3	Team 2
Tempest - 11.57 %	1.78	3.95	5.84	16.51	31.6	40.32	88.43 % - MVP Black

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Match 2 - Estimated start time 7 a.m. EST

Team BlossoM	Team Name	MVP Miracle
#23	World Elo Ranking	#17
#7	Region Elo Ranking	#6
#7	Region Standings Place	#6
1 - 6	Current record	2 - 5

To say MVP Miracle had a disappointing first half is a massive understatement. Given their performance at the Gold Club World Championship, where MVP Miracle beat MVP Black, many expected this team to be a top tier competitor in Korea. However, MVP Miracle has shown significant inconsistency and an inability to close out matches cleanly. MVP Miracle has beaten every other team in Korea on at least one map, and lost to every other team in Korea on at least two maps. 4 of their first half series went to Game 5s.

On the other side, we have Team BlossoM. BlossoM has shown they can win games, but they have not been able to win matches. BlossoM is currently on the Crucible Hot Seat. If they are going to climb out, they will likely need to beat at least 2 of Mighty, GG, and MVP Miracle, so losing this game would put them in trouble.

First Half Result: MVP Miracle 3 : 2 Team BlossoM

Computer projection:

Team 1	3-0	3-1	3-2	2-3	1-3	0-3	Team 2
Team BlossoM - 35.03 %	7.34	12.8	14.88	20.66	24.67	19.64	64.97 % - MVP Miracle

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HGC Europe

Match 3 - Estimated start time Noon EST

Fnatic	Team Name	Team Expert
#5	World Elo Ranking	#8
#2	Region Elo Ranking	#4
#2	Region Standings Place	#4
6 - 1	Current record	4 - 3

Team Expert may not be part of Europe's big three, but damned if they aren't making a case for calling it the big 4. Team Expert hung with Fnatic and Team Dignitas in the first half of HGC Europe, but was unable to pull the upset. But the mad scientist that is adrd game out with both guns blazing. Team Expert showed Butcher, Probius, and some good ole' fashion Medivh en route to the finals. But in the finals, they played surprisingly meta (at least, relative to their usual draft) to upset Fnatic 3 : 1 in the finals. Team Expert isn't just looking to pull an upset. They're playing for step ladder seeding. And while it's an uphill climb, definitely look out for them.

Don't sleep on Fnatic however. They have played their best under the brightest lights (just ask MVP Black), and they definitely won't sleep on Team Expert now.

First Half Result: Fnatic 3 : 2 Team Expert

Computer Projection:

Team 1	3-0	3-1	3-2	2-3	1-3	0-3	Team 2
Fnatic - 75.06 %	26.33	28.36	20.37	11.41	8.9	4.63	24.94 % - Team Expert

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Match 4 - Estimated start time 2:30p.m. EST

Team Liquid	Team Name	Tricked eSports
#6	World Elo Ranking	#19
#3	Region Elo Ranking	#6
#1	Region Standings Place	#6
7 - 0	Current record	2 - 5

Playing under the name Misfits under after the Western Clash, Team Liquid dominated the first half of HGC Europe, going 7-0, including 6-2 against the other members of Europe's Big 3. However, despite that success, Team Liquid finished a disappointing 3rd place at the Western Clash, losing to both Dignitas and Fnatic on the big stage. Despite this, Team Liquid still has the inside track to the Summer Brawl; "Win and you're in." It starts here against Tricked eSports.

Tricked eSports was disappointed with their 6 place finish in the first half of HGC. While Tricked got stronger each week, a 2:3 loss to Playing Ducks put them on the edge of the Crucible hot seat. Despite this, Tricked eSports hung with Team Liquid in the first half set, going all the way to a Game 5 in what could have been the upset of the year so far. Despite this, Tricked is still a heavy underdog in this series.

First Half Result: Team Liquid 3 : 2 Tricked eSports

Computer Projection:

Team 1	3-0	3-1	3-2	2-3	1-3	0-3	Team 2
Team Liquid - 90.84 %	44.19	31.59	15.06	4.71	3.09	1.35	9.16 % - Tricked eSports

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North America

Match 5 - Estimated start time 5:00p.m. EST

Gale Force eSports	Team Name	Team 8
#10	World Elo Ranking	#11
#1	Region Elo Ranking	#2
#3	Region Standings Place	#2
5 - 2	Current record	6 - 1

Full disclosure, I am a GFE fan. So you may be thinking to cry foul at them being rated higher than a team they lost to. Be aware that the reason this is the case is because of the Maelstrom Pro-Am, where Gale Force dominated No Tomorrow and Superstars. This boosted their Elo over Team 8, who did not participate in the Pro-Am. Remember, Elo is just a systematic way of quanitifying a team's ability to win. I do not presume it to be perfect. The ratings are just math. I do not manipulate any numbers directly. With that out of the way...

Gale Force showed signs of brilliance in the first half, including domination of Tempo Storm and Team Naventic. They also showed significant inconsistency, culminating in a 2-3 loss to Team Freedom in Week 2. Because of this extra loss, Gale Force is really in a do or die situation. They must beat Team 8 to keep their hopes of a number 1 seed, and an automatic bid to the Summer Brawl, alive.

Team 8 was picked 7th in the first half of HGC at the start by some jackass's Power Rankings Poll. That guy was wrong. I heard he's bald and has no social life also. Anyways, awkward self deprication aside, Team 8 proved basically everyone wrong. It started quickly, going 6-1 over the first week against No Tomorrow and B Step. It culminated with their Western Clash win over Tempo Storm. Team 8 was the first North American team to take even a single map off a European team at an international premier event in nearly a year. Their goal now? Secure the one seed. The advantage is they don't NEED to beat Gale Force to get the 1 seed. But, if Team 8 beats GFE, and beats Tempo Storm on Sunday, watch out. NA has a new sheriff in town. And that sheriff has a Medivh playing ginja.

First Half Result: Team 8 3 : 2 Gale Force eSports

Computer Projection:

Team 1	3-0	3-1	3-2	2-3	1-3	0-3	Team 2
Gale Force eSports - 51.84 %	13.25	19.49	19.1	18.37	18.01	11.78	48.16 % - Team 8

As I said before, GFE is probably overrated by my Elo rankings (though I don't think by much).

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Match 6 - Estimated start time 7:30p.m. EST

Team Naventic	Team Name	B Step
#25	World Elo Ranking	#13
#6	Region Elo Ranking	#4
#7	Region Standings Place	#4
1 - 6	Current record	4 - 3

As surprising as Team 8's rise was, Team Naventic's fall matches that. Team Naventic hung with Tempo Storm in the fall season. And while failing to make the global events, few doubted that Team Naventic was the best teamfighers in NA. Cut forward to the first half of the season, and things went wrong quickly. Team Naventic managed only to defeat No Tomorrow in the first season, despite going to game 5s with Tempo Storm and B Step. Things were clearly just not right. Now is when Naventic has to step up. If the season ended today, they would be going to the Crucible and fighting for their HGC life. If they want to get off the Hot Seat, they need to win some games and pull some upsets.

B Step started HGC looking disorganized but seemed to just grow in confidence week to week. B Step did miss out on the Western Clash, but now they have a chance to get back to internationals. While a #1 seed autobid is likely out of the question, they can fight to improve their seeding in the stepladder playoff to decide the second seat at the Summer Brawl. To do that, however, they have to win the games they should win, and that starts here.

First Half Result: B Step 3 : 2 Team Naventic

Computer Projection:

Team 1	3-0	3-1	3-2	2-3	1-3	0-3	Team 2
Team Naventic - 25.5 %	4.76	9.11	11.62	20.43	28.17	25.9	74.5 % - B-Step

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