New Burn

Deck Code: 

CICACAYEAUBAEAYDAQCACAYCDYSSQBABAQISONBWAMAQCAZPAEAQICABAMCAWAIBAEBQ6

General Idea

So Burn isn't a new concept at all. There have been multiple Burn decks in LoR's history, and they all seem to come and go. With the new cards Ballistic Bot and Aftershock, Burn is making a comeback! With these new cards, we can now create an entire deck in which every card deals guaranteed damage. This is exactly what you want in an efficient Burn deck.

Here is how the math works out.

The Math

The average amount of damage per card is 2.975. This means that, since players start with 20 health, 7 cards should be enough to kill your opponent (2.975 x 7= 20.825). Playing seven cards to kill your opponent (before they kill you) should be very doable, since you start with five cards in hand and the average mana cost of these cards is 2.2. This means you should be able to kill your opponent with 15 mana total (2.2 x 7 = 15.4), or around turn 5. 

On average, you should be killing your opponent on/by turn 5 (assuming they aren't running any healing).

If your opponent IS running heal cards, take how much healing they did, divide by the average damage per card, and that will give you an idea of how many extra cards you'll need to play for lethal (Opponent Healing Amount / 2.975 = Number of extra cards needed for lethal).

For example, if your opponent gains five life from a Star Shaping, you will have to draw two more cards to deal the extra five damage. (5/2.975 = 1.68)  Obviously, you can't draw .68ths of a card, so we round up to two cards.

How To Optimize Your Burn Damage

However, if you aren't optimizing your burn damage and keeping your nexus alive, none of the math matters. The biggest mistake I see people make is thinking "Ok this unit has 3 attack. That means it will do 3 damage if I swing with it." That's not how I look at these units at all. I don't look at only a unit's attack damage, but rather focus a card's text to see what damage is guaranteed, even if the unit's attack damage is blocked. Every unit in this deck (with the exception of two) has a number of guaranteed damage written in the card's text.

Let's go over the guaranteed damage from each card's text: 

• Legion Saboteur - 1 Guaranteed damage on attack, most of the time you can hit them on turn 1 and get the full 3 damage.
• Precious Pet - 0 Guaranteed damage, but because this card has fearsome, it's guaranteed 2 damage on turn 1
• Teemo - 0 Guaranteed damage, but because this card has elusive, it's almost guaranteed 1 damage on turn 1, and has a maximum damage of 6.
• Ballistic bot - 1 Guaranteed damage if this card only lives for 1 turn, but if not answered, this card can make up to 3+ damage worth of spells, not even including its attack power increasing
• Boomcrew Rookie - 2 Guaranteed damage per attack (even if it's blocked)
• Crimson Disciple - 1 Guaranteed damage each time you can deal damage to it with something like Imperial Demolitionist or Transfusion, and if your opponent blocks with a unit with 2 or less power
• Imperial Demolitionist - 2 Guaranteed damage with the 'play' ability
• Legion Grenadier - 1 Guaranteed damage from the last breath effect
• Mystic Shot - 2 Guaranteed damage
• Transfusion - 2 Guaranteed damage by buffing an unblocked minion as well as a potential +1 damage if you use the "deal 1 damage to an ally" effect on Crimson Disciple
• Get Excited! - 3 Guaranteed Damage
• Noxian Fervor - 3 Guaranteed Damage
• Used Cask Salesman - 2 Guaranteed damage because of the casks. ONLY USE THIS CARD ON DEFENSE AGAINST MIDRANGE DECKS!! It will save you sooo much health because the 2 Casks can block big units. You get 3 bodies with this card. That stops at least half of your opponent's attackers from hitting you.
• Aftershock - 3 Guaranteed Damage
• Decimate - 4 Guaranteed Damage

TLDR

• Each card does an average of 2.975 damage
• The average cost of your cards is 2.2
• On average, you should get the kill by turn 5
• Look at your units as "How much damage do you guarantee me" to maximize your damage output.

Thanks for your time. I hope this deck does well for you. Make sure to check out my twitch channel

- HDR eMOEtional