Talking About Standard Shifts & Why Numbers Lie
Proper stats analytics is very difficult people spend their whole job learning it
For me I do marketing numbers ad metrics etc.
So I wont pretend to be the expert on meta stats but I often see things others don't
So with that out of the way let's get started:
1. Evelyn down to 56% we are going to talk a little bit about why this is deceptive
2. Annie down to 53%
3. Pros keep going down 41% now
4. Ambush keeps going down 45%
5. Lurk down to 53%
6. Atrox down to 53%
7. Jinx aggro 57%
8. Niko down to 48%
9. Fizz down to 54%
10. Ash down to 48%
So typically when we see massive winrate drops across the board something is really wrong
Now you could say Jinx aggro too strong bro
And I would say Jinx is too strong?
Are you high Jinx isn't single handedly killing midrange frostbite
No what the issue really is that you A either go big in standard or B you go agressive
This means you're either playing Siren song Evelyn or you're playing aggro, maybe a little kaisa and illoi if you want to get crazy
So in this instance while there is an aggro deck in standard that can kill Evelyn before she plays Siren song twice in a row at 4 mana
Every other deck in the game can't
So in this instance sometimes you need to look deeper at the root cause that is throttling the meta and not just say durrr aggro exists
It's like yeah it dooooos gj for pointing that out
But the reason why midrange frostbite went from a decent deck to literally a terrible deck
And the reason every new deck is terrible in standard can be answered with one word
Siren song plz 5 mana riot
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Proper stats analytics is very difficult people spend their whole job learning it
For me I do marketing numbers ad metrics etc.
So I wont pretend to be the expert on meta stats but I often see things others don't
So with that out of the way let's get started:
1. Evelyn down to 56% we are going to talk a little bit about why this is deceptive
2. Annie down to 53%
3. Pros keep going down 41% now
4. Ambush keeps going down 45%
5. Lurk down to 53%
6. Atrox down to 53%
7. Jinx aggro 57%
8. Niko down to 48%
9. Fizz down to 54%
10. Ash down to 48%
So typically when we see massive winrate drops across the board something is really wrong
Now you could say Jinx aggro too strong bro
And I would say Jinx is too strong?
Are you high Jinx isn't single handedly killing midrange frostbite
No what the issue really is that you A either go big in standard or B you go agressive
This means you're either playing Siren song Evelyn or you're playing aggro, maybe a little kaisa and illoi if you want to get crazy
So in this instance while there is an aggro deck in standard that can kill Evelyn before she plays Siren song twice in a row at 4 mana
Every other deck in the game can't
So in this instance sometimes you need to look deeper at the root cause that is throttling the meta and not just say durrr aggro exists
It's like yeah it dooooos gj for pointing that out
But the reason why midrange frostbite went from a decent deck to literally a terrible deck
And the reason every new deck is terrible in standard can be answered with one word
Siren song plz 5 mana riot
Idk or maybe that frostbite list is built like Dookie cuz I just beat it with 1 spell shapeshifter soooo
Maybe I should just rebuild it?
Why isn't it running any landmarks?
You can use the rally one, or the hp buff one
Stop making bad beater lists not everything is a beater list!
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Here us this and frostbite Evelyn and xolati into the ground
Swap with brittle steels if you want but in average crackling should be better because brittle can become dead as a 3 of
Wolf becomes a 12 12 overwhelm easy so instead of a bad bearer list you can a good burst list with a strong finisher on average that should be better
I think there are some fundamental misunderstandings that come from the Majin school of deck building that work exceptionally well in certain circumstances and massively underperform in others:
1. You need tempo
2. You need aggression to pressure
3. You need fast answers
4. You need to win on numbers
5. You need to win on cards
6. You need to turbo
7. If you arent doing these things you better ping the opponent into the grave
The reality is all of this is circumstantial
For example if frostbite is sitting at 48% because it was built like a.beater list and it's no longer the best at beating
Then rebuild it into something it can be good at lockdown plus combo finish
If poros is sitting at 41% take it to a format where it has the tools to succeed and create an eternal list
If Ionia is basically absent from the meta build a God damn Ionia list
Like am I speaking in tongues?
Am I not making sense here?
Just swim it up it isn't hard!
Swims approach to deck building was anything can be competitive if you play to it'd strengths.
I can win with a 1 spell shapeshifter tribal list because I understand where the power is
I can win with midrange frostbite
I can win with elites or yordles or transform or poros
Not because I follow the rules of LOR deck.building but because I chose to ignore them
Will that make be a top 1% meta grinder?
No
Will it make my lists superior to 48% and 41% losers?
Yes
Honestly in this deck I might even drop LeBlanc and the 5/1 challenger for Samara and starlit seer
Samara can eat thralls for free and is ping immune
Starseer buffs with your massive number of spells
Easy game
Yah no that's memeing back to the 5/1 and leblanc
True true pushing 10 dmg on turn 3 into ramp is probably gg
That deck doesn't typically tech 3 minimorphs was that for me rofl?
Again you're not gonna have visuals into what your opponent is playing so hence your 46% ambush deck
But I do think I run hawk
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here standard three sister midrange list
let's try not to tech a 3 card hard counter if you can
just play it normal and see how it goes
You already lost
In 2 seconds
Yep my list is better
Gg
I'll even drop the meme yeti to be nice to you
run 1 elixir or brittle or whatever
who cares
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we already established this frame is better and you were running beater scissors
cuz youre a beater guy
who beats his meat
but not everything is a beater deck sorry
like 48% midrange frostbite for example
Yeah that one's done too I threw away my buffed ash even with regen in hand
But yes better than the last list
Okay I'm bored onto ranked with the new frostbite list
So we can learn our mulls
Insta leblanc level into insta ash level into harsh winds deny spell
As John Wick once said I'm thinking I'm back!
here lets drop the 3 sisters and main 3 brittle I don't care
and 1 elixir
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let's take this meme to the moon!!!!
Yuuuuup
That was the dream matchup
How did you like triplle frostbite lockdown
Mr competitive one?
Rofl
Still cutting the tripple brittle for thripple three sisters dead card
Jesus that was fun wow those creatures sure were big Evelyn
Too bad they had 0 attack eh?
Wee done
And that was 1 hour deck fixing by nifty
Eat the big D brewer energy
Fucking up all the meta decks
Suck it