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Wins:losses in arena - How even is the match-making?

I just played a game at 2-0, and won. I added the player as I wanted to talk to them, and saw that I had finished their run at 3-3. I really didn't think that the game would match a 0 win deck with a 2 loss deck, even if it already had 1 more win than mine. ESPECIALLY at such low wins. I know that often at 9+ losses don't matter for match-making, and it will often be +- 1 win or so, but this is the weirdest I have seen.

Has anybody else seen this recently?

Iksar

Posted 6 years, 11 months ago (Source)

At 2-0, around 90% of the time you get matched against someone else that is 2-0. As someone else in this thread stated, sometimes we don't find a good match for you right away and rather than extending your queue time we look for the next closest match. In this case the surrounding matchups are 1-0 and 3-1. So in this case it looks like the matchmaker looked beyond secondary matchups and went even further. This is actually pretty rare (<1%) but it can happen. As players get higher and higher wins, the likelihood you are matched against someone with the exact same record gets lower because the population size of those players is lower. However, I think small differences between arena records is also less impactful the higher you go. For example, the difference in average quality of player/deck is pretty high between 0-0 and 0-2, but the differences between player/deck quality is much smaller at 11-0 and 11-2.

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<div class="md"><p>At 2-0, around 90% of the time you get matched against someone else that is 2-0. As someone else in this thread stated, sometimes we don't find a good match for you right away and rather than extending your queue time we look for the next closest match. In this case the surrounding matchups are 1-0 and 3-1. So in this case it looks like the matchmaker looked beyond secondary matchups and went even further. This is actually pretty rare (<1%) but it can happen. As players get higher and higher wins, the likelihood you are matched against someone with the exact same record gets lower because the population size of those players is lower. However, I think small differences between arena records is also less impactful the higher you go. For example, the difference in average quality of player/deck is pretty high between 0-0 and 0-2, but the differences between player/deck quality is much smaller at 11-0 and 11-2.</p>
</div> (<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/ArenaHS/comments/6jropd/winslosses_in_arena_how_even_is_the_matchmaking/djm8stf">Iksar</a>)
<hr/>

<p><div class="md"><p>At 2-0, around 90% of the time you get matched against someone else that is 2-0. As someone else in this thread stated, sometimes we don't find a good match for you right away and rather than extending your queue time we look for the next closest match. In this case the surrounding matchups are 1-0 and 3-1. So in this case it looks like the matchmaker looked beyond secondary matchups and went even further. This is actually pretty rare (<1%) but it can happen. As players get higher and higher wins, the likelihood you are matched against someone with the exact same record gets lower because the population size of those players is lower. However, I think small differences between arena records is also less impactful the higher you go. For example, the difference in average quality of player/deck is pretty high between 0-0 and 0-2, but the differences between player/deck quality is much smaller at 11-0 and 11-2.</p>
</div> (<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/ArenaHS/comments/6jropd/winslosses_in_arena_how_even_is_the_matchmaking/djm8stf">Source</a>)</p>
    
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Wins:losses in arena - How even is the match-making?

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