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Bluetracker

Tracks Blizzard employees across various accounts.

Current Arena meta

Hello everyone. I was wondering what the class tier list is like after the most recent patch/nerf/update.

Best regards.

  • Iksar
    Posted 5 years, 5 months ago (Source)

    These are the class win rates as of yesterday afternoon compared to what they were prior to the 13.05 patch. All classes are very close together, which is almost always what happens after a micro-adjustment update (good job data science team!). One of the reasons we do this is so you can pick the class you find most fun or the class you are most comfortable with rather than having to worry about what is good or bad in the current meta.

    ​

    Current:

    Druid - 48.6%

    Hunter - 50.1%

    Mage - 50.1%

    Paladin - 49.5%

    Priest - 49.8%

    Rogue - 50.4%

    Shaman - 48.7%

    Warlock - 50.2%

    Warrior - 50.9%

    ​

    Before Microadjustments:

    Druid - 46.9%

    Hunter - 54.7%

    Mage - 48.2%

    Paladin - 47.6%

    Priest - 47.6%

    Rogue - 51.6%

    Shaman - 46.1%

    Warlock - 47.6%

    Warrior - 52.7%

  • Iksar
    Posted 5 years, 5 months ago (Source)

    This would indicate that 'better' players do much much worse with hunter for example than average players. 54.7% pre-nerf is way higher than what HSreplay ever had. And 50.1% vs 46.5% on HSreplay is also massive. Also seems like Warrior is a bit of a skill class. Both of these statements might be true actually if you look at numbers from the entire player-base - just going face should be easier than controlling the board if you think of it at the level of remembering that vast majority of players average below 3 wins per run.

    Truth is part of me has always remained slightly skeptical of HSreplay - some things on their site make me question their math and competence in general a bit(same with Blizzard tho). But even ignoring that and assuming both the numbers from HSreplay and Iksar are true here, the only answer here can be heavy selection bias, right. And it must make a lot bigger difference than expected.

    In HSreplay you get the data by having a random bunch of players: some infinite, plenty of above average, plenty of average, some bad. And as a group, they seem to average like what, little above 4? And also prefer different classes etc more often perhaps than overall. And if you include all of their games and their opponents, you get their data aye.

    But yeah, if it's actually true that within a huge random group of players who among them average little above 4 wins per run, that if you took just the games from them, that with that alone you can get 4% class win rate difference from the overall total playerbase who average like 2.97 or whatnot, then that's just insane. And that must make it living hell to try and balance if it varies so much on different levels. u/IksarHS can you please tell me that you are monitoring these kinds of statistics on different levels and it's actually not that bad? And like HSreplay or your numbers just has smth goofy going on here instead? :P

    Selection bias, date range, sample size. There are a bunch of reasons the data could be different, most likely a combination of factors.

    I'm not sure if HSReplay uses the data from the player who has the app, both the app user and the opponent, or just the opponent of the app user. There is some benefit to only using the opponent of the app user because it's a less bias sample. It doesn't eliminate all bias, though. Technically, if users of the app are better than average players, they get to matches where they are 7-1, 8-2, 10-1, etc. This would mean their opponents are also better on average.

    We don't really agonize over a 3-5% difference in win rates for players of different skill levels with different decks. It's generally healthy for differences like that to exist and for some classes to be harder or easier to play than others. Constructed decks like Miracle Rogue, Patron Warrior, or APM Priest have huge differences in win rate depending on the level of player playing the deck, but it's not a bad thing. Hunter has historically had a higher win rate at lower levels of play, I imagine it's because the gameplan of Hunter tends to be more straightforward than a class like Rogue of Priest.

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