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Bluetracker

Tracks Blizzard employees across various accounts.

this is my experience too. i have smart, compassionate, considerate friends who will chalk covid up to "higher risk tolerance". they choose to remain ignorant while i try to help them understand... but parties are more important than avoiding long covid or immune system damage. https://t.co/p4F9xe5gD5

this is my experience too. i have smart, compassionate, considerate friends who will chalk covid up to "higher risk tolerance". they choose to remain ignorant while i try to help them understand... but parties are more important than avoiding long covid or immune system damage. https://t.co/p4F9xe5gD5

  • trulyaliem
    Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
    this is my experience too. i have smart, compassionate, considerate friends who will chalk covid up to "higher risk tolerance". they choose to remain ignorant while i try to help them understand... but parties are more important than avoiding long covid or immune system damage. https://t.co/p4F9xe5gD5

    • freblyspaghetti
      Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
      @trulyaliem At this point though what are we supposed to do? Never ever go outside again like this is as good as it's going to get.

      • trulyaliem
        Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
        @freblyspaghetti i wear an elastomeric n95 respirator whenever i share indoor air with people. yeah it's not awesome but you can't tell me that the effects of long covid are more fun.

        • freblyspaghetti
          Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
          @trulyaliem And you're going to do that for the rest of your life?

          • trulyaliem
            Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
            @freblyspaghetti this sounds like "are you going to wear seat belts the rest of your life?" there is a danger. i can take steps to significantly protect myself from it.

            • freblyspaghetti
              Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
              @trulyaliem I'm trying to understand. My sister in law has long covid and i'm very aware of the effects but I just don't feel like it's still necessary to wear a mask. There is a lot of diseases that can cause long term effects and lots of risks We take every day.

              • trulyaliem
                Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                @freblyspaghetti current expectations are that you get infected twice a year, right? every infection gives you a ~10-20% chance to develop long covid, per the world health organization. and covid *also* depletes your immune system rendering you vulnerable to opportunistic infections.

                • freblyspaghetti
                  Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                  @trulyaliem Yes. Am aware. Many of us are just making an informed choice you disagree with.

                  • trulyaliem
                    Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                    @freblyspaghetti so like... let's say it's 10%. two infections per year. in a year, this means that you have a 19% chance to develop long covid, which lasts for years or possibly a lifetime. in five years, that's a 65% chance of getting long covid. in ten? 87%. fifteen years? almost 96%.

                    • trulyaliem
                      Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                      @freblyspaghetti if it's 20%? five years almost gets you to 90% long covid. and that's on top of the additional health costs of being sick from opportunistic infections. this isn't just playing russian roulette. it's playing russian roulette by yourself. eventually it'll get you.

                      • freblyspaghetti
                        Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                        @trulyaliem Thats not how math maths. That ten percent doesn't compound every year. Every year you have a ten percent chance to contract long covid but that doesn't mean that you have a sixty five percent chance over ten years.. That's not how stats work.

                        • trulyaliem
                          Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                          @freblyspaghetti 10% chance of long covid means 90% chance of not long covid. after one infection, given 100 outcomes 90 of them are good, 10 are bad. two infections means you need to hit that 90% chance twice to avoid long covid. that's 0.9^2, or 0.81. 81% chance to avoid long covid means...

                          • Chadd Nervigg
                            Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                            @trulyaliem >~10-20% chance to develop long covid, per the world health organization. Question. Are these independent chances? Like if someone gets covid but not longcovid, is there still a 10% chance to get longcovid the next time they get covid? Source link on that would be great!

                            • trulyaliem
                              Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                              @Celestalon https://t.co/endjhnisSv look under the "who's at risk" question. i've definitely heard of cases for long covid off sequel infections, but i don't have a good source for that handy.

                              • Chadd Nervigg
                                Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                                @trulyaliem "Research suggests that approximately 10–20% of COVID-19 patients go on to develop prolonged symptoms that are associated with post COVID-19 condition." That sounds more like dependent chances, since it says "10-20% of patients", not "10-20% of infections", implying that some… https://t.co/rwb5Y7Ixc8

                                • trulyaliem
                                  Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                                  @Celestalon i think your question is "if i didn't get long covid from an earlier infection, am i not vulnerable?" i would strongly urge you to not consider yourself immune just because you dodged it so far. if anything, you're more vulnerable since you've had immune system damage.

                                  • Chadd Nervigg
                                    Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                                    @trulyaliem Right, I don't think it's black and white, and certainly not immunity. But my intuition says that there would be SOME connection between whether a previous infection resulted in longcovid, and whether a future infection would, for the same patient. And I'm not suggesting that… https://t.co/YWIG3Bw9zD

                                    • Chadd Nervigg
                                      Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                                      @trulyaliem And for context, I'm personally still way more covid-careful than most, masking when social distancing isn't happening. Like I come into the office, but mask up when talking to people at my desk, or in meeting rooms. I still go out and do things, but am often the only person in… https://t.co/6cXUaQ91Z8

                                      • Chadd Nervigg
                                        Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                                        @trulyaliem Oh, this (thx @feuer_ameise) is exactly what I was looking for. https://t.co/4S2MXMf6PM Honestly, I'm struggling to properly parse the scientificese a bit, but...

                                        • Chadd Nervigg
                                          Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                                          @trulyaliem @feuer_ameise ...I *think* this chart is showing that it's a strongly negative correlation. Hard to tell from the log scale on the chart, but it looks like... ~150/1000 who got covid ONCE have 1+ longcovid symptom ~225/1000 who got it TWICE ~250/1000 who got it THRICE https://t.co/mw9Z4DP0cl

                                          • Chadd Nervigg
                                            Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                                            @trulyaliem @feuer_ameise ...of course that base rate of 150/1000 doesn't jive with the WHO quote of 10-20%. So I'm not very confident in my understanding there. Would love if there was some more layman-readable version of that study!

                                          • feuer_ameise
                                            Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                                            @Celestalon @trulyaliem I’m not quite sure what you’re referring to with “negative correlation”, it shows that repeat infections are positively correlated with worse health outcomes. I don’t think the data tells us a lot about how exactly the probability of long covid depends on previous infections.

                                            • Chadd Nervigg
                                              Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                                              @feuer_ameise @trulyaliem If they were independent equal chances, you'd expect 150/1000 for once, 277.5/1000 for twice, 385.875/1000 for thrice. It's considerably less than that, so I think you'd call that "negatively correlated", as in the second time has less of a chance of causing longcovid. Right?

                            • freblyspaghetti
                              Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                              @Celestalon @trulyaliem They dosent understand stats or have sources. Tbh I am thinking it's anxiety. I'm out

                              • Chadd Nervigg
                                Posted 2 years, 7 months ago (Source)
                                @freblyspaghetti @trulyaliem Allison very *very* much understands stats, and is citing sources in this thread when asked.
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