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mathNerd

Joined 07/28/2020 Achieve Points 50 Posts 1

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  • mathNerd's Avatar
    50 1 Posts Joined 07/28/2020
    Posted 3 years, 9 months ago

    Okay did some quick "mathing" on this. I did not include the new shaman reveals and counted only the 30 shaman standard spells that cost 1 or more.

    1x (10), 1x (7), 3x (5), 3x (4), 8x (3), 7x (2), 7x (1)

    Since discover never offers us the same card twice the highest cost option always will be 5. (the 10 mana card, the 7 mana card and the next highest can only be 5 mana).

    I ran a quick simulation (with 100,000 iterations) where I only ever pick the cheapest card to maximize card generation: 

    56.56% (1)
    29.71% (2)
    12.38% (3)
    1.11% (4)
    0.25% (5)

    If I sum those numbers up I get an average mana cost of: (1.58)
    This means played on turn 10 I can use it 4.4 times on average (not counting additional mana sources like coin or that new innervate card I might still have in hand).

    If you throw in 1-2 Dwarven Archaeologist (like mentioned above) chances are you will rope before you run out of mana? :D

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