Talking About Standard Shifts & Why Numbers Lie

Proper stats analytics is very difficult people spend their whole job learning it

For me I do marketing numbers ad metrics etc.

So I wont pretend to be the expert on meta stats but I often see things others don't

So with that out of the way let's get started:

1.  Evelyn down to 56% we are going to talk a little bit about why this is deceptive

2. Annie down to 53%

3. Pros keep going down 41% now

4. Ambush keeps going down 45%

5. Lurk down to 53%

6. Atrox down to 53%

7. Jinx aggro 57%

8. Niko down to 48%

9. Fizz down to 54%

10. Ash down to 48%

So typically when we see massive winrate drops across the board something is really wrong

Now you could say Jinx aggro too strong bro

And I would say Jinx is too strong?

Are you high Jinx isn't single handedly killing midrange frostbite

No what the issue really is that you A either go big in standard or B you go agressive

This means you're either playing Siren song Evelyn or you're playing aggro, maybe a little kaisa and illoi if you want to get crazy

So in this instance while there is an aggro deck in standard that can kill Evelyn before she plays Siren song twice in a row at 4 mana

Every other deck in the game can't

So in this instance sometimes you need to look deeper at the root cause that is throttling the meta and not just say durrr aggro exists

It's like yeah it dooooos gj for pointing that out

But the reason why midrange frostbite went from a decent deck to literally a terrible deck

And the reason every new deck is terrible in standard can be answered with one word

Siren song plz 5 mana riot

Idk or maybe that frostbite list is built like Dookie cuz I just beat it with 1 spell shapeshifter soooo

Maybe I should just rebuild it?

Why isn't it running any landmarks?

You can use the rally one, or the hp buff one

Stop making bad beater lists not everything is a beater list!

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Here us this and frostbite Evelyn and xolati into the ground

Swap with brittle steels if you want but in average crackling should be better because brittle can become dead as a 3 of

Wolf becomes a 12 12 overwhelm easy so instead of a bad bearer list you can a good burst list with a strong finisher on average that should be better 

I think there are some fundamental misunderstandings that come from the Majin school of deck building that work exceptionally well in certain circumstances and massively underperform in others:

1. You need tempo

2. You need aggression to pressure

3. You need fast answers 

4. You need to win on numbers

5. You need to win on cards

6. You need to turbo

7. If you arent doing these things you better ping the opponent into the grave

The reality is all of this is circumstantial

For example if frostbite is sitting at 48% because it was built like a.beater list and it's no longer the best at beating

Then rebuild it into something it can be good at lockdown plus combo finish

If poros is sitting at 41% take it to a format where it has the tools to succeed and create an eternal list

If Ionia is basically absent from the meta build a God damn Ionia list

Like am I speaking in tongues?

Am I not making sense here?

Just swim it up it isn't hard!

Swims approach to deck building was anything can be competitive if you play to it'd strengths.

I can win with a 1 spell shapeshifter tribal list because I understand where the power is

I can win with midrange frostbite

I can win with elites or yordles or transform or poros

Not because I follow the rules of LOR deck.building but because I chose to ignore them

Will that make be a top 1% meta grinder?

No

Will it make my lists superior to 48% and 41% losers?

Yes

Honestly in this deck I might even drop LeBlanc and the 5/1 challenger for Samara and starlit seer

Samara can eat thralls for free and is ping immune

Starseer buffs with your massive number of spells

Easy game

Yah no that's memeing back to the 5/1 and leblanc

True true pushing 10 dmg on turn 3 into ramp is probably gg

That deck doesn't typically tech 3 minimorphs was that for me rofl?

Again you're not gonna have visuals into what your opponent is playing so hence your 46% ambush deck

But I do think I run hawk

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here standard three sister midrange list

let's try not to tech a 3 card hard counter if you can

just play it normal and see how it goes

You already lost

In 2 seconds

Yep my list is better

Gg

I'll even drop the meme yeti to be nice to you

run 1 elixir or brittle or whatever

who cares

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we already established this frame is better and you were running beater scissors

cuz youre a beater guy

who beats his meat

but not everything is a beater deck sorry

like 48% midrange frostbite for example

Yeah that one's done too I threw away my buffed ash even with regen in hand

But yes better than the last list

Okay I'm bored onto ranked with the new frostbite list

So we can learn our mulls

Insta leblanc level into insta ash level into harsh winds deny spell

As John Wick once said I'm thinking I'm back!

here lets drop the 3 sisters and main 3 brittle I don't care

and 1 elixir

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let's take this meme to the moon!!!!

Yuuuuup

That was the dream matchup

How did you like triplle frostbite lockdown

Mr competitive one?

Rofl

Still cutting the tripple brittle for thripple three sisters dead card

Jesus that was fun wow those creatures sure were big Evelyn

Too bad they had 0 attack eh?

Wee done

And that was 1 hour deck fixing by nifty

Eat the big D brewer energy

Fucking up all the meta decks

Suck it