Blizzard recently announced that we're going to receive a balance patch on Thursday, May 19th, regarding both Battlegrounds and Constructed.
Speaking about the latter, Hearthstone's Standard format is in a peculiar position: there's one class that clearly dominates the meta, a few others that can boast somewhat playable strategies and finally there are others that are either completely one-dimensional or almost absent from ladder.
Quote From PlayHearthstone Heads up, Adventurers!
Details on our newest patch are coming May 19. Look forward to adjustments to both Battlegrounds and Standard, including nerfs and buffs!
While the balance patch we received almost a month ago successfully addressed issues related to Ramp Druid, Pirate Warrior and part of Kazakusan's degeneracy, other problems have surfaced in the meantime, and we are beyond the point where the meta can successfully heal itself. With these premises, the announced balance patch comes with an excellent timing.
Even though Team 5 is yet to share the balance patch's details with the community, we know that we'll receive both nerfs and (as teased by Iksar in his last AMA) buffs, which are hopefully going to shake up the meta and increase the environment's diversity, waiting for the Sunken City Mini-Set to come.
In this article, we're going to focus on the buff predictions, while some possible nerfs (definitely easier to predict) were previously discussed here.
Buff Predictions - A Premise
Buffs have historically been appreciated by the Hearthstone community: improving your already existing collection's worth without further investments is a win-win scenario, and in case things turn out ugly (Luna's Pocket Galaxy anyone?) you can just revert that change and live with it.
Speaking of buffs, in his recent AMA (here you can find our recap), Iksar mentioned that Warlock and Priest are "in a lower than average for 'worst' classes of the expansion" and therefore Team 5 may want to look at them in the near future - this balance patch seems the perfect occasion to put such intentions into practice!
However, we think that those are not the only two classes that will receive some love, as there are a few others that do see competitive play, but they are so atrociously one-dimensional (meaning that they only have one viable archetype, without anything else to fall back to in case the meta develops unfavorably) that pushing some narrow archetypes could improve the meta and class' internal diversity. Yes, we are currently in a 4-set-meta, but bumping a couple cards here and there won't hurt anyone (possibly).
Disclaimer: we do not think that all the cards listed below should be buffed - in some cases, we just provided more than one candidate for the same goal, showcasing how you can reach the same result in different ways! Moreover, keep in mind that these are merely speculations, and therefore highly subjective: please take them with a grain of salt and be respectful of each other's opinion!
Warlock Overview
Let's start with Gul'Dan. After losing many good tools with April's rotation, Warlock is not in a good shape: Handlock is in shambles, The Demon Seed has seen better days, Fel Warlock has never been a thing, Zoolock is way too fair to make the cut and the new Murlock and Curse Warlocks saw play only in the first few days of the Sunken City expansion, before falling off completely.
Warlock may even have good cards here and there, but it just misses some crucial gears to make the entire machine work. Remember last year's Shaman? Right before the Wailing Caverns Mini-Set, the class was more or less as bad as Warlock is nowadays, but Primal Dungeoneer and Wailing Vapor turned Thrall into a tier 1 contender for many months.
Now, a buff patch can rarely achieve something as impactful as a new card release can, but Team 5 certainly has the chance to either improve cards that are performing below their expectations or prepare the field for the next mini-set's coming, which shouldn't be farther than two weeks (beginning of June probably?).
With all of this being said, we think the Fel package from Fractured in Alterac Valley could definitely use a revisit: in particular, we're referring to Grave Defiler, Seeds of Destruction, Felfire in the Hole!, Felwalker and Impfestation.
Disclaimer: we could've made buff suggestions for all 5 of the cards you see above, but instead we just cherry picked the ones we see as most impactful in the short-long period.
Grave Defiler
Proposed change: Health increased to 2 (up from 1).
1 mana 2/2s are not new to the game: just look at Shivering Sorceress for Mage and Bloodsail Deckhand for Warrior (although it got nerfed shortly after being buffed to a 2/2). Grave Defiler does not represent a universal inclusion in Warlock decks, as it is obviously bound to its Battlecry revolving around Fel synergy: unless all you care about is a plain 2/2, you'll always run it for reasons that are beyond the unit's statline.
Just like Big Spell Mage, Fel Warlock would love a strong opener to jam on turn 1 and fight the board with, waiting for the mana crystals to grow in number.
Felwalker
Proposed change: Felwalker reduces your highest cost Fel spell in your hand to 0 this turn (rather than automatically casting it).
This suggestion comes directly from Ridiculous Hat, who sees in this buff a potential synergy to exploit with the aforementioned Grave Defiler. If you pair this improved Felwalker with Defiler, you'd be able to get two 0-Cost copies of the spell you would've normally cast at random targets, and such scenarios can give you lots of agency:
- You can either cast both.
- Cast just one and keep the other for later.
- Potentially keep both, and play those units just for the board presence (remember that, differently from Clumsy Courier, Felwalker has the remarkable upside of having Taunt).
The most expensive Fel spell for Warlock is Impfestation, which is still... not very expensive, and to be fair not that impactful either. But hey, you always start from the bottom, right?
Seeds of Destruction
Proposed change: now also draws a spell from your deck.
Dread Imps are cool, especially if they are free, and Seeds of Destruction shuffles 12/12 worth of stats in your deck for the paltry cost of 2 mana. However, the problem stands in the fact that this card doesn't make any immediate impact without external aid, and even with additional card draw alongside it you're not guaranteed to draw your Fel Rifts anytime soon.
Therefore, we think that adding a tutor effect on top of the already existing Seeds of Destruction's effect could be beneficial for the card's viability, as well as for (Fel) Warlock. If Seeds were to draw a spell, you'd be able to either summon a Dread Imp right off the bat or draw another spell, which you specifically included in your deck.
An example? Seeds of Destruction could draw Felfire in the Hole!, which could later draw into a Fel Rift (which is a Fel spell) for its additional 1 AoE damage. To be fair, it's nothing particularly broken, but it would be better than what we currently have!
Priest Overview
As we see it, Priest is very difficult to buff without adding more cards to the Standard pool. Right now, it's almost as if Anduin is still waiting for an actual expansion to drop: Sunken City gave the class plenty of support tools, but you'll go nowhere without a solid backbone to build around. Sure, you can reduce the cost of some centerpieces like Lyra the Sunshard or Blackwater Behemoth, but then? Are those changes really going to make Priest viable? We doubt so. Anduin needs some form of lethality that isn't just Elwynn Boars, and it's not like they already have it but it's not good enough.
For example, take Darkbishop Benedictus Shadow Priest: you may even buff some core pieces (we've read about someone asking for Void Shard to go to 3 mana), but this doesn't change the fact that Anduin currently has just 9 Shadow spells available, some of which have nothing to do with the archetype's gameplan (Whispers of the Deep), and that the rotation took away most of the early drops the deck run in order to generate board pressure.
You'll understand that such deep problems cannot be completely solved by just buffing one card or two. However, we wish all classes in Hearthstone to be playable, so we'd be more than glad to be absolutely wrong about all we just said.
Blackwater Behemoth
Proposed changed: cost reduced to 7 mana (down to 8) or it has Stealth.
Just like Team 5 buffed underperforming Hero cards back when Alterac Valley was released, we wouldn't be surprised if they actually planned to give some love to the least performing Sunken City Colossals. If this were to be the case, then Blackwater Behemoth definitely makes the cut: just like any other Colossal, it does represent a lot of stats for its cost, but at the same time it feels so... average, anonymous, boring. For the same cost, Gaia, the Techtonic basically clears the enemy board, and for one less mana The Leviathan grants the same amount of damage, with a Dredge+draw effect on top.
Sure, the Lifesteal bonus may be a lifesaver at times, but we feel like 8 mana are just too much for the current iteration of Blackwater Behemoth, and the first month of Voyage to the Sunken City seems to agree with us. Therefore, what can be done in order to make this Colossal a little more appealing? We have two suggestions.
The first one is rather straightforward: reduce the card's cost to 7 mana. N'Zoth, God of the Deep showed us all how the cost reduction of a single mana crystal can turn a card from niche to very competitive, so the same may happen to Behemoth. You may want to slightly tone down the unit's stats in the meantime, but we'd be fine with it. On a side note, Priest does not have many good 7-cost cards available, so this would also be an indirect buff to Seek Guidance.
The second suggestion we have would give the card more flavor, although we recognize that this is not what Anduin really needs right now. Blackwater Behemoth is a predator, that stealthily lures its preys near itself before attacking them - accordingly, Behemoth's Lure makes the enemy minion bump into the Behemoth, and not the other way around. So, what if Behemoth had a Stealth effect? This way, the Priest player would be guaranteed its 8 mana investment to have better chances to survive a trade and not be subsequently killed on the following turn: you'd be more likely to get additional attacks, for even more Lifesteal gain. You'd still have to pay 8 mana for it, but now it may feel like a better investment.
Lightbomb
Proposed change: cost reduced to 5 mana (down from 6).
Lightbomb is one of Priest's most iconic board clears. However, time has passed since it was released back in Goblin v. Gnomes, and the game's power level has gone up to the point where a conditional board clear like this cannot still cost 6 mana - Mass Hysteria costs 5 mana and Hysteria costs just 4, granting pretty much the same outcome.
Lightbomb is almost an 8-year-old spell (GvG was released in December 2014) and it's part of Priest's Core Set, so it seems fair for Team 5 to rebalance it so that it can compete with the current Standard pace.
Lyra the Sunshard
Proposed change: Cost reduced to 4 mana (down from 5).
Literally the same argument of Lightbomb: time has passed (less time, since Un'Goro released in April 2017, but still a lot), and in the meantime Team 5 printed a way cheaper version of Lyra the Sunshard in Sethekk Veilweaver, which is also an Epic! To be blunt, 5 mana is simply too much.
We do not think that such a buff will bring Priest back into playability without further cards being introduced, but it does seem an owned change nonetheless.
Serpent Wig
Proposed changed: buff increased to +1/+2 (up from just +1/+1).
To be fair, we do not believe buffing Serpent Wig would be impactful: the Naga tribe has been around for just a month, so it is fair for some synergistic cards to be yet to find a home - in cases like this, you just need more tools to play with!
Sure, increasing the buff provided by Serpent Wig would be nice, but it would not instantly push Miracle/Naga Priest into playability, so the reasoning we made for Shadow Priest stands for this case as well - just wait some time and then reconsider this buff.
Rogue Overview
With Demon Hunter very likely to decrease in both popularity and power level after Thursday's patch, it is reasonable to think that Pirate Rogue will have better odds to climb the ranks and stabilize as a competitive archetype. Rogue, however, is one of those classes which suffer from the aforementioned "one-dimensional" issue: Pirate Rogue might become better, but then? What's next? Is there anything else for the class that is remotely playable?
As things stand now, the answer is no: there is absolutely nothing else that the class can do, especially since almost the entire Sunken City Rogue set was about - you guessed it - Pirates. Therefore, we think this balance patch might be the perfect occasion for Team 5 to improve a couple tools already in Valeera's hands, so that the class will be able to branch out a bit more.
In particular, we predict that Rogue will receive some buffs regarding the Burgle package. Here are some cards that could use a glow up.
Hench-Clan Burglar
Proposed change: cost reduced to 3 mana (down from 4).
In a world with Venomous Scorpid, Vulpera Scoundrel and Entrapped Sorceress in the current Standard pool, a 4 mana Hench-Clan Burglar feels kind of outdated, as if we were still in 2019.
Buffing Hench-Clan Burglar to 3 mana means hitting two birds with a single stone: such a change will support both Pirate Rogue (Burglar is a Pirate!) and will give Burgle Rogue better quality tools - another Core change that is basically due to time having passed since this card was printed.
Wildpaw Gnoll
Proposed change: cost reduced to 5 mana (down from 6) or Attack increased to 4 mana (up from 3).
Second in line, we've got Wildpaw Gnoll. Back in the Fractured in Alterac Valley meta, Rogue had access to Secret Passage, which allowed players to fish for 0-mana Gnoll in the very first few turns of the game, therefore generating an unsustainable swing for the opponents. In the end, Gnoll was nerfed because it represented too many stats coming down too early and because decks that run it were not Burgle decks, but just Rogue lists that happened to run Maestra of the Masquerade in order to get access to 0 mana 4/5 Rushers ahead of time.
Now that Passage is going and Rogue's card draw appears more limited, Team 5 may want to reconsider this nerf, at least partially. We do not think that Gnoll should be completely unnerfed, but even in this case there are two possibilities:
- Keep Gnoll at 6 but revert its stats - You'll still need to work the same for Gnoll to be cheap/free, but at least you'll get more tempo back.
- Reduce Gnoll's cost to 5 mana but keep it as a 3/5 - We think this solution represents the stronger buff out of the two proposed, as the unit would come down earlier.
To be fair, we'll be fine as long as Burgle Rogue will receive some love, so we're okay with leaving the actual decision to Team 5.
Tooth of Nefarian
Proposed change: because of complexity, see at the end of the analysis.
Since Tooth of Nefarian was released in the Onyxia's Lair Mini-Set, is has never been a relevant option for Burgle Rogue. The reasons of this can be found in the fact that Valeera received some nerfs (Wildpaw Gnoll above all) that made its Burgle archetype less performing, but on the other hand we can say that Tooth of Nefarian is not that great of a card either.
Sure, it can go face, but then why don't you just run Wicked Stab (Rank 1)? It has a chance to Discover a spell from another class and therefore discount your Wildpaw Gnolls/activate your Double Agents, but the fact that you can do it only with a Honorable Kill makes it so unreliable and therefore now worthy of consideration.
There are multiple ways to make Tooth of Nefarian more appealing:
- Reduce its cost to 2 - A 2 mana deal 3 damage with an upside in case you meet a certain requirement, on par with Hunter's Quick Shot.
- Rework the Discover/Honorable Kill requirements - Make it so Tooth of Nefarian always Discovers a spell and the Honorable Kill allows you to keep all three options.
- You may even take away the fact that Tooth of Nefarian can go face, but would still be an improvement.
Hunter Overview
Just like Rogue, Hunter is another of those class which suffer from being too "one-dimensional" in their current gameplay possibilities. With Face Hunter in shambles after the rotation, if you take away Questline Hunter (something we wouldn't be sad about) what does Rexxar have? Probably just Big Beasts, which to be honest do not look particularly great right now.
We feel like we should wait the next meta to settle before looking at Hunter's situation, but even in this case there is a suggestion we can already make.
Azsharan Saber
Proposed change: increase both unit's Attack to 4 (up from 3).
A 4 mana 3/3 with Rush is just sad, no matter how you put it. Sure, Sunken Saber has a potentially broken Deathrattle, but this doesn't change the fact that we're talking about a really below average body, to the point where even Stormpike Battle Ram looks decent in comparison.
We may even consider reducing Saber's cost to 3 mana, but we prefer taking one step at time.
Demon Hunter Overview
Asking for Demon Hunter buffs right after asking for nerfs to it is quite ironic, isn't it? We've read about many people asking for Xhilag of the Abyss to be buffed: while we agree that this Colossal could use a glow up, we're kind of conflicted about the timing.
Let us explain. Basically any Demon Hunter strategy has been suppressed by Aggro Drek'Thar DH until now, simply because the latter is plainly better under every aspect. Nerfing Drek and maybe Multi-Strike will have the effect of opening up more space for both the other classes and all the other Demon Hunter archetypes, resulting in a buff to all those cards which haven't seen play until now.
Based on this reasoning, how could you buff a card you haven't had a realistic chance to play yet? Yes, if a card is bad, it's bad, no questions asked, but what if it's not and we are yet to understand it? We think it's better for Demon Hunter to not receive buffs in the immediate future: we may change our opinion after the next content release or in time for another balance patch, but we'll repeat this: with the nerf of Aggro DH, every non-Aggro DH card will be buffed - maybe this "buff" will be enough, maybe not, but Team 5 will have other chances to correct their aim in the future.
Xhilag of the Abyss
Proposed change: Xhilag's Stalks become 1/3 or always target the lowest Health enemy.
Despite everything we just said, if we were to buff a single Demon Hunter card we'd probably go for Xhilag of the Abyss. While it looked really good during the reveal season, paying 7 mana for some stats and a slightly better Arcane Missiles is just not enough, especially since Xhilag's Stalks start out slowly and are very easy to remove.
What could Team 5 do to improve Xhilag?
- Increase Xhilag's Stalks' Health to 3, granting them more resilience and the chance for at least a couple of them to survive the opponent's turn.
- Allow Xhilag's Stalks to always target the lowest Health enemy - pretty much like Fel Barrage, such an improvement would help the player clear the board, increasing the chance of Xhilag and its appendages to stick and survive more turns.
What do you think about these buff suggestions? Are there any other cards you'd like Team 5 to improve? Let us know in the comments below!
Comments
Nice job!
Thanks!
Those are quite accurate buff predictions, some are on-the-nose. Congrats!
Still no fel buffs for Warlock tho...
It felt good seeing that I actually nailed a few ;)
No Fel Warlock buffs sucks, but what can we do...
The stealth effect on behemoth makes sense flavorwise, but the problem is that when it attacks it losses its stealth, so in effect what this does is merely make it stealth if there's no enemy minions around. I think the mana reduction to 7 would be enough. 8/10 for 7 mana with lifesteal, that's very nearly illegal.
As for the proposed buffs to rogue, Im not sure if it needs any help except reverting gnoll back. The main problem with rogue is simply that it has much less options than it did before. Losing Wand Thief is one of the biggest reason why only pirate rogue can exist today. This can be remedied in the midset or future expansions. I think we can survive with pirate rogue for the next 3 months. Its hardly a bad deck, only losses badly to dhunter who will doubtless be nerfed.
Also, fel warlock needs more than buffs, it needs an overhaul. Its just really weak, and in need of a good pay off. None of the cards offer that, and a small mana push here and there would not change this.
Burgle rogue actully needs help, more then just gnoll( and the rogue in AV wasnt a burgle deck, it was a tempo deck that run maestra and gnolls to be free of passage.
Tooth of Neferian and burglar are just terrible/really weak cards
Pirate Rogue doesnt need (much) help, if blizz wants burgle rogue to be anything but completly dead and worthless it actulyll really needs the buffs.
And current lack of options for rogue is aslo its overall lack of draw after loss of swindle and passage, there is sprint but its terrible and smokescreen which is even worse unless have a full on DR deck (which is aslo doesnte xcist/is terrible atm)
Blackwater Behemoth wouldn't lose stealth because it doesn't attack. It forces enemy minion to attack it.
That being said I think either of the buffs proposed would be pretty much okay.
Props on the article but...you're out of your mind if you think Lightbomb at 5 is reasonable. Even in Wild that's be offensive (I run it in Wild Questline Priest, a meme deck, and it destroys). It's a more predictable and generally more powerful boardclear than Mass Hysteria, it deserves to be more expensive as a result.
But lightbomb just doesnt see play, and mass hysteria can clear alot more boards then lightbomb.
Aslong they got more hp the attack (which isnt exactly uncommon), lightbomb doesnt clear. Mass Hysteria often is actully 5 mana twistin,g nether.
I love the flavour of the stealth keyword for Blackwater Behemoth, he is hidden and you can only see the Behemoth's Lure. 5/5 for avalon!
Yay!
Am I alone in thinking Blackwater Behemoth is actually great already? Practically every time I play it it puts in some serious work, and I recall Zeddy looking through the colossals and recognising the card actually had a good win rate, but the surrounding decks didn't. I.e. the problem is that it is only one card in a weak deck, and the deck would be better served by being made stronger elsewhere.
Its win rate is high likely because of the meta, which is pretty aggressive. If priest somehow survives until turn 8 in a quest hunter or dhunter game, then its likely going to seal the win for you. But if you're playing from behind, you're likely dead before this even comes out so that might explain its good play win rate.
According to hsreplay, the play win rate and mulligan win rate is about 18 points apart, while its play win rate vs its drawn win rate is 10 points apart. I think we can call it a win more card. If its improved to the 7 mana slot, then it'll actually do more than just winning a game that youre winning already.
In my experience, it has actually been strongest when I'm a decent way behind, just not quite so overwhelmed that the opponent will still have lethal the next turn. In those cases, they have to divert attention to killing it lest it just heals everything back up again, and it ends up like this big removal (and often pseudo-AoE as minions trade into it) that also heals for a ton. I certainly don't count that situation as 'winning already', and I wouldn't call it a win more card. Rather, it's priest's best way to turn a losing game into a winning one. It's not even bad against slow decks: sure the healing matters less, but it still goes at least 2-for-1 every time.
Deep down, I think there's a philosophical aspect to choosing which cards to buff. If you have a bad deck and only one card in it that ends up with a positive played win rate (and it isn't an OTK card since that would seriously skew it), then that card should be the last one you consider buffing. Otherwise you're actively pushing power creep and making the deck super reliant on finding that one card at the right time.
In this case, I think people are just targeting the Behemoth because it's a colossal and that's the flagship cycle of cards this set, so it is the first card people think of. It's the same with Xhilag, though that card actually is weak at least.
The only time for me, that behemoth worked the way you describe it is largely whenever Im not playing it as priest. Or whenever Im playing against an aggro deck that somehow manages to last past 8 turns. In any case, in absence of a case study, we can agree to disagree on this one.
Im actually looking at this card being buffed to push quest and highlander archetypes that may well benefit the most from this being 7 mana. Looking at the list there's really not many cards that needs a buff that won't end up buffing another archetype that will then take over the priest class. From that perspective, buffing this card seems like a no brainer.
I would agree that for the most part people are sneering at this card because its supposed to be the flagship of the class in this expansion. I mean, look at nellie and leviathan and somehow those cards are 7 mana. But on its own merits, this is one card that simply doesn't seem to fit priest at all. What purpose could a priest, in consideration of what priests tends to do and what they have at the moment in standard, does this card even fit in? If nothing else, buffing it to 7 (and likely lowering its stats) would make it fit more roles. Maybe its fast enough now to be a stabilizer - past turn 6, one turn can mean a lot.
Regarding your last paragraph, I would argue the Behemoth fits very well with priest mechanically: a big value minion with lots of healing and effectively a destroy effect is very on-brand for the class. Not every priest archetype will want to use it of course, but there's no doubt it fits the class. However, it does suffer from priest already having good healing, so other classes might be happier to generate a Behemoth than priest is to run it.
I guess rogue's current position is a great demonstration of how heavily success depends on the meta, and not just on how good your own cards are. Rogue's Year of the Gryphon archetypes were all left incomplete upon rotation, and VSC only pushed pirates, hence why that class is stuck with only 1 deck atm, and double-hence why a class that's usually extremely resilient in the meta is now so beholden to it. Priest is much less resilient than rogue, and often finds itself in the dumps. That's relevant here because it means it's often not a problem of priest cards being weak so much as the class's overall design being easily countered (and then everyone hates it when it's top dog...). So to me it looks like people are making Behemoth the scapegoat for much wider priest problems, and doing so for no better reason than that it's the latest set's flagship card.
On a broader comment about the colossal cards, I think they have dug themselves a bit of a hole with them. Most of them are serious power creep over previous big minions, and I definitely count Behemoth in that already. (It's so much better than Ragnaros, Lightlord is almost upsetting :P) I'm always very conservative with my thoughts on power creep, but we should still be mindful of what benchmark we are comparing them and future cards to. I feel like perhaps 'Nellie is too strong' should be the narrative here, not that Behemoth is too weak.
I like that someone wants to add Stealth to the Behemoth but wouldn't it reveal itself at the end of the turn? They have changed the mechanic to reveal whenever damage is received - at least in Mercenaries.
No, units lose stealth when they "take action". If you mass hysteria a normal unit and it attacks a stealth one without killing it, the stealth stays stealth