Awesome event going on here! Theory crafting has always been one of my favourite things to do before an expansion. So I present to you my Mini-mage miracle rogue!
"We have plans to introduce new archetypes, some of which will definitely be non-aggro"
"some of which"... implying most of the new archetypes are not non-aggro. Would be disappointing if so - aggro has already enjoyed dominance for much of Hearthstone's history while being further incentivized as a faster way to climb the ladder. I'd love to play cool, expensive cards but it's hardly possible when games tend to end by turn 5, especially in Wild. Please, Dean, let's make ALL of the new archetypes non-aggro!
The 46% is refering to the chances of not finding one of those cards by the turn. Sorry if that was not clear enough.
As for how most of calculations were done, there is too many ways of calculating, these being either hypergeometric distribution, which finds the odds of finding success given a total population size, the amount of successes within the total population, the sample size, and the amount of successes we want to see. The other method is through a formula such as 1-((x-4)*(x-5)*(x-6)*etc)/(x*(x-1)*(x-2)*etc), where X is the cards in deck. What this equation does is calculate the chances of not drawing the desired card, and then the 1- part finds 'flips it' to figure out the chances of drawing the cards we want.
Primordial Protector definitely has a lot of potential in these decks, but I feel more often than not its just too clunky for its own good. By the time you have reached the final step of the quest, usually you will have drawn the 7 drop and 8 drop already. As for tutoring for the reward, sure that certainly helps with casting the card as soon as possible, but at that point it is not really an 8 drop for the quest and it hurts the odds quite a bit. Does the flexibility still outweigh this? Probably, but I still think just better tools to stave off aggro might be more useful.
Also, encase it is not obvious, this list I was using the math with is a bit of a hot mess in terms of what is being ran. I did not have a clear idea of what this deck should be while making it and I think it shows very clearly.
You say 54% chance of seeing one copy of these cards by turn 1, then in the next sentence it's 46%.
I realized I have no clue how to calculate that. I figure going first in the mulligan since one slot is taken by the questline, that's 4/29, then 4/28, and if you toss those 2, then 4/27, then 4/26. Finally, 4/27 again to draw at the start of turn 1. If I add those together I get 73%, and multiplying gets me some ridiculously tiny number.
No Quest deck should run this over Venomous Scorpid. While one may think "wow, Quest synergy, must include", Scorpid is just a better card. A 3/4 that's only active for some of the game or an infinite/3 that always gets you a spell. The choice is obvious.
Out of Cards Deckbuilding United in Stormwind Giveaway Entry Thread
Awesome event going on here! Theory crafting has always been one of my favourite things to do before an expansion. So I present to you my Mini-mage miracle rogue!
Wild · Miracle Rogue · by ExtraDeathX · 5 years, 1 month ago
Dean Ayala's Hearthstone Community Q&A #23 - 8th Board Slot, 2022 Expansions Locked-In, Hearthstone Manga?
"We have plans to introduce new archetypes, some of which will definitely be non-aggro"
"some of which"... implying most of the new archetypes are not non-aggro. Would be disappointing if so - aggro has already enjoyed dominance for much of Hearthstone's history while being further incentivized as a faster way to climb the ladder. I'd love to play cool, expensive cards but it's hardly possible when games tend to end by turn 5, especially in Wild. Please, Dean, let's make ALL of the new archetypes non-aggro!
Void Shard
good for shadow priest
New Priest Spell - Void Shard
good for shadow priest
Out of Cards Deckbuilding United in Stormwind Giveaway Entry Thread
Give it a try, thanks guys for the opportunity!!
Wild · Control Warrior · by iiBloodHunter · 5 years, 1 month ago
[Game] Card Treasure Hunt (The Resurrection Attempt)
I'm not Cursedparrot..... I joined this game kind of late and it's the only name I've used
Dean Ayala's Hearthstone Community Q&A #23 - 8th Board Slot, 2022 Expansions Locked-In, Hearthstone Manga?
"Not likely to see a Tavern Pass get added to a Mega Bundle."
Well, Dean, as far as I'm concerned, you are the ones who will be losing.
Questing in Stormwind - Better Understanding Paladin's Rise to the Occasion Legendary Questline
The 46% is refering to the chances of not finding one of those cards by the turn. Sorry if that was not clear enough.
As for how most of calculations were done, there is too many ways of calculating, these being either hypergeometric distribution, which finds the odds of finding success given a total population size, the amount of successes within the total population, the sample size, and the amount of successes we want to see. The other method is through a formula such as 1-((x-4)*(x-5)*(x-6)*etc)/(x*(x-1)*(x-2)*etc), where X is the cards in deck. What this equation does is calculate the chances of not drawing the desired card, and then the 1- part finds 'flips it' to figure out the chances of drawing the cards we want.
Questing in Stormwind - Better Understanding Priest's Seek Guidance Legendary Questline
Primordial Protector definitely has a lot of potential in these decks, but I feel more often than not its just too clunky for its own good. By the time you have reached the final step of the quest, usually you will have drawn the 7 drop and 8 drop already. As for tutoring for the reward, sure that certainly helps with casting the card as soon as possible, but at that point it is not really an 8 drop for the quest and it hurts the odds quite a bit. Does the flexibility still outweigh this? Probably, but I still think just better tools to stave off aggro might be more useful.
Also, encase it is not obvious, this list I was using the math with is a bit of a hot mess in terms of what is being ran. I did not have a clear idea of what this deck should be while making it and I think it shows very clearly.
Out of Cards Deckbuilding United in Stormwind Giveaway Entry Thread
I usually like writing guides, but one of my principles is to never post a deck before I test it. Good luck to everyone who competes!
New Warrior Spell - Raid the Docks
Probably good, even better in wild
New Hunter Spell - Aimed Shot
It is a good card for questline, but not even sure you always run it, more like a tech choice that is meta dependent...
New Warlock Minion - Entitled Customer
Really good board clear... Sign me up
New Priest Spell - Void Shard
you might just want this in shadow priest, because you need some spells with lifesteal
New Paladin Spell - Blessed Goods
Hm there are some decks that might want this, especially questline
New Demon Hunter Minion - Irebound Brute
I mean it is way too situational, even in DH that draws a lot it will be clunky probably
New Hunter Minion - Stormwind Piper
No, don't see it doint much of anything at al
Questing in Stormwind - Better Understanding Paladin's Rise to the Occasion Legendary Questline
You say 54% chance of seeing one copy of these cards by turn 1, then in the next sentence it's 46%.
I realized I have no clue how to calculate that. I figure going first in the mulligan since one slot is taken by the questline, that's 4/29, then 4/28, and if you toss those 2, then 4/27, then 4/26. Finally, 4/27 again to draw at the start of turn 1. If I add those together I get 73%, and multiplying gets me some ridiculously tiny number.
New Neutral Minion - Entrapped Sorceress
This is deckbuilding bait.
No Quest deck should run this over Venomous Scorpid. While one may think "wow, Quest synergy, must include", Scorpid is just a better card. A 3/4 that's only active for some of the game or an infinite/3 that always gets you a spell. The choice is obvious.
New Hunter Spell - Devouring Swarm
Interesting removal and value card...
New Shaman Minion - Spirit Alpha
Sounds nice, but then you think about it and it doesn't sound nice
New Rogue Minion - SI:7 Assassin
Hm interesting Vilespine Slayer but only works in specific deck
New Rogue Spell - Find the Imposter
Decent quest but not as good as some other
New Warrior Minion - Cowardly Grunt
card doesn't have synergy with itself, so there is a bit of problem there
New Priest Minion - Psyfiend
weird, but can be ok in shadow priest