Tian Ding, Hearthstone Data Scientist, has provided more insight into which archetypes are ranking supreme at the top end of Hearthstone's Standard ladder. It has been a couple of weeks since we last got data from Blizzard, so let's see what has changed since the Warlock nerf patch that hit last week.
As a reminder, this data comes directly from Blizzard and uses the top 1% of players by MMR in Ranked Standard. Due to this, its as accurate as it is going to get!
Two Weeks Ago
A couple of weeks back when we got data, the following archetypes made up the top 5 (winrates in brackets).
- Aggro Hunter (54.0%)
- Aggro Druid (54.0%)
- Aggro-Shadow Priest (53.8%)
- Questline-Big Warlock (53.6%)
- Fel Demon Hunter (52.6%)
Let's look at the new data!
This Week's Top Standard Decks - Early September 2021
Here are the numbers provided for the top 10 archetypes alongside their win rate and "first turn advantage".
| Cluster Name | Win % | FTA % |
|---|---|---|
| Aggro-Shadow Priest | 54.2% | 8.3% |
| Aggro Hunter | 53.3% | 6.4% |
| Questline-Big Warlock | 52.6% | 7.9% |
| Token Druid | 52.5% | 5.6% |
| Poison Rogue | 52.0% | -0.7% |
| Spell Druid | 51.2% | -1.9% |
| Secret Paladin | 50.8% | 13.8% |
| Questline Demon Hunter | 50.6% | 9.1% |
| Questline Shaman | 50.5% | 3.6% |
Looks like Secret Paladin is very good if you are going first, which isn't much of a surprise considering how fast it wants to play. Warlocks have also dropped 1% in winrate since the last batch of numbers were dropped.
We also got to see stats from the bottom end of decks. Big Warrior and Questline-Zoo Warlock are not having a great time. In fact, Warriors aren't doing too hot at all. With possible buffs coming soon, maybe we'll see some Warrior love and a boost to get some of the less successful questlines up in win rate.
| Cluster Name | Win % | FTA % |
|---|---|---|
| Deathrattle Demon Hunter | 49.8% | 9.8% |
| Handbuff Paladin | 49.7% | 9.9% |
| Libram Paladin | 49.6% | 7.2% |
| Questline-Lifesteal Demon Hunter | 49.6% | 7.1% |
| Fel Demon Hunter | 49.5% | 5.7% |
| Questline Rogue | 49.3% | 4.9% |
| Celestial Druid | 49.2% | -1.3% |
| Elemental Shaman | 48.9% | 5.8% |
| Questline Warlock | 48.4% | 7.2% |
| Tempo Rogue | 48.3% | 2.1% |
| Rush Warrior | 47.6% | 6.1% |
| Questline Hunter | 47.1% | 4.7% |
| Questline Mage | 47.0% | 4.0% |
| Questline Priest | 47.0% | 7.9% |
| Control Warrior | 43.0% | 5.8% |
| Big Warrior | 39.1% | 3.4% |
| Questline-Zoo Warlock | 39.0% | 8.3% |
Got Lists?
Tian didn't provide any lists this time, so we've gone ahead and fetched some of the best lists for these archetypes off of HSReplay.net.
Comments
Is no one playing around turn 1 Oh My Yogg!, which is why the turn 1 advantage so much higher for secret paladin?
Even if you play around it, eating your Coin gives the Paladin a huge advantage.
Aggro Hunter has been the best deck in standard since scholomance and has received one nerf.
The problem with face hunter right now is that it has just enough cards to be good. Builds aren't flexible at all and if you're not careful with what you're nerfing and how much you could kill the whole deck easily and that's a problem because Hunter has only one viable deck right now and that's exactly face hunter
Then perhaps blizzard should stop forcing the same archetype over and over? Players are like a current (voltage), they will find the path of least resistance. Players are HAPPY to try something new (look at how quest hunter was played in the first few days versus now). But they will only continue to play it if it has the ability to compete with the big boys. This is why decks like spell hunter (with Rok' delar) were viable. They provided hunters with something to fill their weak point (hand size, which in this case was random spell generation from a single card) but required a deck building mechanic to be fufilled.
I also think he's pointing out that Aggro/face hunter has been the best deck for quite awhile with little-to-zero nerfs. It's ok for decks to be "low man on the totem pole" but for some odd reason, hunter is never there. They may never be the #1 or #2 meta deck, but they are never #9 either. (Well except for this meta and the last one, where apparently aggro hunter is the #1 deck.)
It doesn't help that for a lot of people (myself included), that if you have a bunch of fun/flashy cards that cost 6+, but you almost never get to see those cards played (even for memes), then the game is heading in a direction that fundamentally is broken.
TLDR...
Expectation: People should play Hearthstone to have fun. That doesn't mean you need to play aggro decks at the beginning of every month to "rank up faster", hell, the POINT of the monthly star bonus was to allow you to reclaim your previous season's rank without having to work quite as hard as you did the previous season)
Reality: Too many people play Hearthstone like they are planning on joining an e-sports tournament, and think they'll be invited to this year's Inn-vitational.
I read a blog a few years ago, and while I can't remember the specifics at this point, the message roughly paraphrased was this:
If your only goal is to "rank up" or reach a specific competitive milestone on a regularly basis, you'll quickly find that this metric becomes meaningless. Don't make your play sessions into cyclical grinds. (i.e. Ranking up for the sake of ranking up)
Who would've thought that aggro decks were the best decks in this quest meta ?
Its a quest/combo meta. Its no surprise that aggro decks are on top at all.
Aggro decks are always at the top of the meta.