Blizzard recently announced that we're going to receive a balance patch on Thursday, May 19th, regarding both Battlegrounds and Constructed.
Speaking about the latter, Hearthstone's Standard format is in a peculiar position: there's one class that clearly dominates the meta, a few others that can boast somewhat playable strategies and finally there are others that are either completely one-dimensional or almost absent from ladder.
Quote From PlayHearthstone Heads up, Adventurers!
Details on our newest patch are coming May 19. Look forward to adjustments to both Battlegrounds and Standard, including nerfs and buffs!
While the balance patch we received almost a month ago successfully addressed issues related to Ramp Druid, Pirate Warrior and part of Kazakusan's degeneracy, other problems have surfaced in the meantime, and we are beyond the point where the meta can successfully heal itself. With these premises, the announced balance patch comes with an excellent timing.
Even though Team 5 is yet to share the balance patch's details with the community, we know that we'll receive both nerfs and (as teased by Iksar in his last AMA) buffs, which are hopefully going to shake up the meta and increase the environment's diversity, waiting for the Sunken City Mini-Set to come.
In this article, we're going to focus on the nerf predictions, while some possible buffs (much more difficult to predict) are going to be discussed in a later article.
Nerf Predictions - A Premise
While buffs have historically been appreciated by the Hearthstone community, it is as clear as the sky that the current state of the Standard format desperately needs some archetypes to be toned down. Sure, we are not talking about Day 1 Demon Hunter levels of insanity (back then, the situation was so grim that Team 5 hotfixed a bunch of cards after just 24 hours from their launch!), but there are still some power outliers that are preventing the meta to develop further.
Disclaimer: we do not think that all the cards listed below should be nerfed - while this is the case for some classes, in other situations one of the proposed changes should be more than enough! Moreover, keep in mind that these are merely speculations, and therefore highly subjective: please take them with a grain of salt and be respectful of each other's opinion!
Drek'thar
Proposed change: because of complexity, see at the end of the analysis.
Let's start with the major suspect. Drek'Thar currently represents what Barnes was 5 years ago: a swing turn that happens way earlier than it's supposed to be and that, most of the time, wins the game on the spot or immediately after - and there's very little your opponent can do about it.
In an average scenario, you're able to create a very strong board pressure or turn 4 (or even on turn 3 if you're going second), resulting in your opponent being forced to face more than they can actually handle at that point in the game.
Now, the million-dollar question: how do you nerf Drek'Thar? Here are some possible solutions:
- Reduce its cost to 3 mana - We've read about people suggesting this change, but we think it's a rather short-sighted suggestion. Sure, you'd get to summon at best two 2-drop, but the swing turn would happen even earlier!
- Reduce the summoned minions to 1 - The simplest and probably the most likely design Team 5 will follow. You literally halve Drek'Thar's swing potential.
- It would break the character's flavor, but better this than breaking the meta!
- Reduce Drek'Thar's stats - While bringing less stats on the board would certainly help, you'd miss the problematic part of the card, therefore circumventing the issue rather than solving it.
Multi-Strike
Proposed change: cost increased to 2 mana (up from 1) or Attack buff reduced to 1 (down from 2).
If Drek'Thar usually closes the deal, Multi-Strike is fundamental in negating opponents' early initiative. Not only this spell represents a total of 4 damage for 1 mana, but it has great synergy with many Demon Hunter cards that are currently seeing play:
- Dreadprison Glaive allows you to push damage face while clearing the opponent's board.
- Pufferfist - Basically a one-sided Immolation Aura which allows the Demon Hunter to get past most annoying units, like the ones with Divine Shield.
- Battleworn Vanguard - even more board pressure for your opponent to deal with.
Even with Drek'Thar potentially deleted from the game, we are sure that Multi-Strike would still feel like a very strong card. However, we do not think that implementing any of the two aforementioned changes will irremediably cripple the card, as it should still be rather good (especially thanks to all the attack-related synergies Demon Hunter has). You just cannot expect any other board-based strategy to gain traction if you can negate their early game board so efficiently.
Dreadprison Glaive
Proposed change: duration reduced to 2 (down from 3).
It took quite some time for Dreadprison Glaive to appear on the meta radar: when it was released back in Fractured in Alterac Valley, many players recognized it as a powerful tool, but only Voyage to the Sunken City allowed this weapon to find a place, and it is currently a fantastic card in the hands of the best Standard archetype.
Clearing the opponent's board while pushing for face damage is extremely relevant, as it puts your opponent under even more pressure. Demon Hunter has many Attack buffs (Fury (Rank 1), Multi-Strike, Chaos Strike), so fulfilling the Honorable Kill requirement isn't a problem often times.
However, with the Drek'Thar nerf basically guaranteed and a potential Multi-Strike hit, we do feel like addressing Dreadprison Glaive as well would be a bit of an overkill, risking to bring Demon Hunter into unplayability - and we do not want more unplayable classes.
Shield Shatter
Proposed change: cost increased to 12 mana (up from 10).
Let's imagine this scenario: Aggro Demon Hunter gets hit hard, falls off in both power level and popularity, the meta slows down a bit and new aggressive strategies are able to flourish - would things go this way? We're not sure.
See, if Control Warrior is the only deck that is able to consistently keep Demon Hunter in check, what would happen if such a strong removal kit were to meet other aggressive strategies that are not so fast? It is fair to say that the Warrior would have even more time to deal with whatever is thrown at them, resulting in a very strong viability gatekeeper for any fast archetype.
Curbing a portion of Warrior's removal package may allow the upcoming meta to not become too slow, resulting in the opposite problem of what we're experiencing these days.
From the Depths
Proposed change: discount reduced to 2 mana (down from 3) or number of cards discounted reduced to 3 (down from 5).
To be fair, this isn't something we personally thought about: after the announcement of an upcoming balance patch, Hearthstone pro Ike suggested that From the Depths could use some changes. In fact, the interaction with Sir Finley, Sea Guide allows for a lot of mana cheat in the first few turns of the game: it is not rare to see Rokara, the Valorous to be played as soon as turn 4, or other powerful cards being played either ahead of time or with very little mana investment - even without counting the highrolls, you can swing pretty hard when your entire hand costs 3 mana less.
Ike's suggestion was to limit From the Depths's discount to just the bottom 3 cards; on the other hand, if we were to give our two humble cents, we'd suggest to keep the number of discounted cards as it currently is, but reduce the overall impact of the spell by reducing the applied discount to 2 mana - still powerful, still versatile, but a little less swingy.
Nellie, the Great Thresher
Proposed change: Pirates' cost increased to 2 mana (up from 1).
We've read about this nerf candidate multiple times: while in the end we do not agree with such suggestion, let us elaborate a little further. Nellie is currently seeing play in both Control Warrior and what remains of Raid the Docks Pirate Warrior: not only it works as a hand refill mechanism for extra value down the road, but it also represent a remarkable mana cheat effect - this second use is the one that usually ends up being problematic.
In particular, being able to Discover a 1 mana Mr. Smite turns Nellie's crew into a lethal tempo swing for the paltry cost of 3 mana. The situation becomes ever more swingy when you pair Nellie with Brann Bronzebeard in Control Warrior, basically guaranteeing yourself a Smite plus a large portion of stats to throw at your opponent's face - basically an OTK!
This interaction can be very frustrating at times; however, as we were saying, we think it has yet to reach the point where we cannot live another day without a Team 5 addressing Nellie. Maybe, with the Pirate pool increasing in number, this issue will solve itself, or maybe it will become even more relevant with the release of other Pirates, but right now this isn't something that needs to be changed as much as other cards on this list.
Defend the Dwarven District
Proposed change: Knock 'Em Down takes 3 spells to complete (up from 2).
Last, but not least, everyone's favorite: Questline Hunter! Basically the only survivor of the 5 OTK decks that defined a large portion of the Fractured in Alterac Valley meta, it has been able to carve out a rather sweet spot for itself in the Sunken City meta.
As an example of what a "solitaire deck" looks like, here's a quick representation of what it feels like to play against Questline Hunter and to why players have such strong feelings against it:
- Did your opponent play any minions? Kill them with your spells and advance through your Questline.
- Did your opponent not play any minions? Direct your spells towards your opponent's face and advance through your Questline.
Moreover, once Tavish, Master Marksman hits the board, you are literally on a clock: it won't take your Hunter opponent more than a couple turns (sometimes just one) to finish you off, regardless of what your gameplan was all along.
Worth noting is that, despite not being the deck's main goal, Questline Hunter, a deck with basically all spells and that doesn't care about board presence, runs Drek'Thar - not because it needs it, but just because it can. Maybe nerfing Drek will be more than enough to keep Defend the Dwarven District, or maybe it won't.
What we are really worried about is that, Big Beasts apart, Hunter doesn't seem to have many viable strategies available, so there's the risk that knocking out Questline Hunter too much could hurt the class' chances to see play on ladder.
What do you think about these nerf suggestions? Are there any other cards you'd like Team 5 to tone down? Let us know in the comments below!
Comments
I don't think nerfing Questline Hunter is enough just by what you suggest, it still remains an easy target to accomplish from 6 spells to 7 spells, and it's still remains a Solitaire deck. My suggestion is to stop giving quest reward a 0 cost Hero Power.
Seems like Hunter doesn't really have anything else to offer than a meta from Stormwind. It's getting boring to face QL Hunter always all the time. I would say the same to QL Warrior, but I often saw Control Warrior in ranked, so at least it's acceptable.
EDIT. And I also would like to point out that Paladin spells 2 mana draw 5 is still ridiculous, even if it's not always draw 5, 2 mana drawing 3 can be considered too OP. It deserves a nerf at some point.
Only change Nellie needs is make it only able to generate pirates that cost 5 mana or less.
What is the flavor of Drek'thar summoning 2 minions? Is it the wolves in front of him? I assume not since it's any minions instead of just beasts, but I don't know the lore.
The same connection Vanndar has with big minions. They simply have opposite effects (synergy with small vs. big) because they are of opposing factions.
Oh, so it summoning two units is not actually a WoW lore perspective, it just mirrors an effect of it's sister card.
So I assume the author was referencing it had two wolves in the art when he mentions that summoning just one would break the flavor.
I disagree -- they absolutely should nerf the whole Naga DH archetype into oblivion -- that would not not make the class unplayable. The reason we don't see other DH archetypes right now is because Naga DH is so ridiculously OP.
I never thought I'd miss seeing Deathrattle DH.
I just want my Abyssal Curses to not proc the Hunter's Quest
They're awful quiet about this, don't they announce the exact changes before the date?
Usually yes. Maybe they're still refining some parts of the patch.
Where are the Druid nerfs?
What Druid nerfs would you like to see?
I agree with these changes but I think that we would need an adjustment to Paladin also. Mech Paladin and Handbuff Paladin is highly efficient (stats from hsreplay Legend >1000) but get his ass kicked by DH. Removing that deck from the scene would mean that Paladin will become the king of the meta. It crushes every other deck in the meta (maybe excepting Boar priest, which is almost a 50% match)
I have been experimenting with a mage deck built around Wildfire and Blizzard. With Magister Dawngrasp and Grey Sage Parrot you can freeze their whole board for multiple turns, while the upgraded hero power provides massive damage over time and Mordresh Fire Eye and Reckless Apprentice are board clears and burst damage.
It has a great record against paladin.
I think that the fact hunter has no other strategies available Is not a reason to leave It unnerfed. There are lots of classes that have no efficient strategies anyway at the moment (Priest and shaman) and they still won't be played if the Quest hunter Will remain unnerfed.
Not saying that Questline Hunter should not be nerfed because it will make the class unplayable, but rather than nerfing that deck will give us yet another unplayable class.
If a deck is broken, the fact that it's that class' only viable strategy isn't a valid excuse to leave it as it is, but at the same time it makes me sad that there aren't any other valid alternatives...
Just make the 2nd part of the Hunter Quest reduce HP cost to (1) instead of (0).
I know VS said its WR is dropping in standard, but the deck is still complete fucking cancer in wild
Drek'thar and Multi-strike are a given I think. Nerfing Glaive as well would obviously be overkill and probably not even that useful since a single GLaive rarely procs on all 3 hits and then you're just nerfing a 1/3 weapon for no reason.
Disagree about the Warrior nerfs. Nellie is strong but balanced because even if you use Brann you rarely get a full OTK, and also in that case you can't Shield Slam the Ship so Silence will always be a counter.
From the Depths is fine too because it'll never be consistent enough to just win the game at turn 4. A random Nellie is quite literally the only truly unfair thing that can happen and it's the only thing that allows Warrior to even be reasonably proactive. If we nerf it, Control WArrior goes back to just rolling over to any lategame strategy because they can't pressure them effectively.
Shield Shatter is the only thing that makes sense to nerf just because of how easily it is to activate.
Hunter will hopefully get a Questline nerf. I dont# even care if the entire class becomes unplayable (and I'm a Hunter main), Quest Hunter is literally just Quest Mage except even easier and that deck got dumpstered while not even being a meta pick. Just add +1 to the 2nd and 3rd Quest Step, kill the deck for good and buff Big Beasts or something.
If I was doing the changes, I would probably do this:
Drek'Thar - stats change to 2/4
Multi-Strike - increase cost to 2
From the Depths - reduce the discount to 2
Defend the Dwarven District - increase requirement of the 2nd part to 3 spells
Lightforged Cariel - remove the "doesn't lose durability" part from her weapon
Mr. Smite - just make it rush instead of charge. I don't know how many more times someone has to be killed by buffed 30+ attack Smite or some supid Nellie's crew to realize that this card is STILL too good
Cariel should not be a problem. The viper Is One of the best tech card ever printed, I don't know the point in nerfing that hero.
I've been thinking about ways to nerf Drekthar, and what if his effect more closely mirrored Vanndar's?
For example, if this costs more than every minion in your deck, give them all +1/+2
Vanndar discounts your large minions, Drekthar buffs your small ones; each of them is a 4 mana 4/4 alone on the board.