Rhemyst, a member on Reddit, asked if Riot could provide the probabilities for rewards in Legends of Runeterra to upgrade...and they did!
Quote From RyscG We debated a bunch whether we should just include the upgrade rates in that article, but we were hesitant to. The upgrade chances are among the least confident tuning values we have, and, to be honest, is probably one of the most likely places we'd take value out of the system if we need to buff something elsewhere (or if, hopefully not, we've just overtuned things). While we can, and will, communicate that kind of change, it usually causes a bunch of confusion despite our intent to be clear. We wanted to see how much interest there was in the upgrade chances before signing us and players up for that.
Clearly there is an interest to see them, so I'll share them here. That said, THESE COULD DECREASE IN THE FUTURE! These may be overtuned or it may be that the reward value will better serve players elsewhere in the system.
Remember these can chain as well, but in game it's hard to tell right now.
Reward Upgrade Chance Chests > Chest Tier +1 20% Capsule > Wild Capsule 5% Capsule > Epic Capsule 10% Epic Capsule > Champion Capsule 10% Random Common, Rare, Epic > Wildcard of same rarity 10% Random Champion > Champion Wildcard 5% Random Card > Rarity +1 10% Wildcard > Rarity +1 10%
In another post Rhemyst went on to do the math and come up with a length of time to support Ryan's statement "If you play enough to reach a level 10 Vault each week you should have about 75% of the set complete before the next one comes out."
He discovered that it should take a player who doesn't make any additional purchases about 12 weeks to reach this goal.
Those numbers should put us around three LoR expansions a year and possibly more!
Comments
omg i didnt know they implemented this and this morning i got my epic wildcard from piltover/zaun rewards and it spinned and turned into a champion wildcard! i didnt know it could do this so here i am when i looked it up. 10% chance to upgrade the rartiy by +1 huh? and it happend on my epic wild card i got so lucky!
I had an Epic Wildcard upgrade to a Champion one earlier today myself!
If you are interested in, u/rhemyst from reddit also made a simulation about set completion using Python who is asked that question and also promised to do maths about it :) ,
Here is the link; https://www.reddit.com/r/LegendsOfRuneterra/comments/dtnizg/a_simulation_of_set_completion_for_various_levels/
and here is the post and the results; All are quote from the post itself and thanks to u/rhemyst from Reddit again.
I used it compute the average progression values for several "involvement levels" and compute the set completion over 4 month.
The system makes several assumptions:
Collection starts absolutely empty
You save you shards for champions, then epics, then rares, etc...
You always spend your wildcards, even on commons and rares. It's not optimal in terms of progression, but I believe it's more realistic to assume most people will not want to sit on 50+ wildcards until they can just complete a whole rarity level at once.
You always level your vault to a given level every single week.
I used the "upgrade" values provided by Riot in the above thread. Those could change.
I tested various "involvement levels", with various properties:
Casual: level 6 vault every week. Vault gets less efficient after level 6, unless you reach level 10
Serious: level 10 vault every week. This also means about 1 region every month.
Pro: level 13 vault every week
According to u/herazalila, the above levels represent about 2h, 4h30 and 18h per week.
Whale: buys 3 epic and 3 champion wildcards every week (that's about 12€)
Dolphin: buys 1 epic and 1 champion wildcards every week
Fish: never buys anything
Here are the set completion, as percentage, over the course of 4 months. The line in bold is the example given by Riot : by leveling the vault to 10 every week, you get to about 75 completion after 4 month, i.e. when a new set is released. This would indicated that my simulation is accurate.
EDIT: thank you all for you comments. I need to clarify a few things before you look at those numbers.
Like I said, I ignored the prologue, tutorial and the possibility to buy a starter set. Those the bellow number should thus be a bit higher. I can redo the simulation when the have the exact data for it, during the next beta. EDIT: assuming I got the right data, with the prologue and starter set you'd reach 75% in 12 weeks as a Serious Fish.
On the other hand, my simulation does not account for the fact that when leveling a region, you only gain cards from that region. Which means that you are more likely to get duplicates, and that slows you down a bit. So those numbers below should be a bit lower.
But, at the same time, it means that the "completion percentage" is actually higher for the regions you leveled. Values below are only computed on the total set.
I used the region rewards order provided by Riot in their blog post. Those rewards are sorted in value. In practice, regions rewards are not sorted (you get some very nice rewards in the early levels). In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't change much. In practice, it means the beginning of your progression can be faster.
Overall, you can always add or remove a few points from those numbers depending on how you level regions, how you spend your shards, etc... It's just a broad estimate.
Meanwhile in Hearthstone...
Man 10th December better be coming soon cause I'm really losing interest about the game right now.
I find it hilarious how the sudden meta shake up just ended up making the meta feel even more boring, because the ladder is now mostly Shamans and Priests.
I really hope that, if nothing else, the sudden powercreep from Dragons will at least make it so every class is equally broken. At this point it's very clear that aiming for a "balanced" meta just doesn't work.
Who would have thought that squelch button not working could impact a game so much?
Not me because for last few days the game crashes just on the HS logo
BTW, it is funny that all comments on Runettera post are for Hearthstone :-)