A unit with Challenger + Quick Attack is basically a 0 for 1 removal card. That pair of keywords isn't broken today because getting a unit with both Challenger and Quick Attack typically requires spending a card on top of the body (e.g. Sonic Wave or Rush), making it a 1 for 1 trade every time. Since your nightfall cards aren't being destroyed to give Diana her buff, she will be super broken in match-ups where your opponent lacks 3 damage removal spells.
@FortyDust, if they include enough ways to trigger Diana's effect on open attack, Nightfall isn't working properly as a mechanic. Getting a Nightfall effect and open attacking is probably okay in a small percentage of games (after all, you certainly want to feel like your champion is powerful), but the mechanic needs to really force players to make hard choices about open attacking or it's not going to make for fun play patterns. It does seem to be possible to do with Diana's signature spell - Pale Cascade - but so far that's the only burst speed Nightfall spell.
I'm very disappointed they aren't pushing digital copies with the purchase. It would be an amazing way to boost the sales and make paper look even larger than it is.
Though, I do agree, they should just make this available as a purchase in MTG Arena itself. It would have to be a bit cheaper, though you would get a full playset since they are cosmetic skins, so it wouldn't be too cheap. I'd love myself some Eldraine lands or those SUPER SEXY Theros gods they put out during the world champs last year.
I think the ban and suspensions is important though. Keeping the games 1:1 makes it very easy to transition between them. Magic already has a lot of rules and is quite a complicated game so adding more confusion into the mix doesn't seem like a great idea. Definitely one of the more unfortunate downsides to their digital format since it doesn't feel very digital.
I cannot give you a real answer to this as I don't know how the program exactly resolves the discovery choices (and to my knowledge Blizzard has never said how they are doing it exactly). I would like to point out a couple of issues though:
Your conclusion (or the videos) seems to be flawed; if this would be actually resolved like you describe in the last sentence (which I don't think) the probability of getting Rotnest Drake would actually be even higher (e.g. if the first card option is the other class dragon the second option would not be 25% but already 50% as there are no duplicates offered)
Having said this based on my experience of discovery results I am pretty sure that this does not work as you described (can't give you any proof though)
But hey I'm not a statistics expert, so feel free to proof me wrong. Besides even an expert (outside Blizzard) might not be able to answer this properly without the knowledge how this is exactly resolved by the program. I guess there are multiple options.
TL;DR - Does Discover give every card an equal probability of being displayed?
When the Discover effect was changed to "not favor class cards", I just naively assumed that every available card had an equal probabiltiy of being shown as an option.
For example, Primordial Explorer gives you the option of 3 dragons and there are currently 20 Neutral Dragons and 2 Hunter class Dragons in Standard (not counting Primoridal Explorer itself given the recent change). Without thinking about it, I just assumed that the probability of getting say Rotnest Drake was 1/22 for the 1st discover option, 1/21 for the 2nd discover option, and 1/20 for the 3rd discover option (I don't remember ever getting the same Dragon shown twice, but if that's possible then the probability would be 1/22 for each option).
However, this video was randomly recommended to me on YouTube today (had never heard of them before) and I gave it a listen. The hyperlink skips to the 43:45 mark where an argument is made that Discover instead works as a 2-stage gamble so-to-speak. For each of the 3 options there's a 1/2 probability that the card will be drawn from the Neutral Pool or the Class Pool. After this, another die is rolled where every card in the respective pool has an equal probability of being displayed (without replacement).
So in the example above the probability of Rotnest Drake would be 25% for each of the 3 discover options (50% to be a class card and then 50% to be Rotnest Drake given that it's a class card). Is this really the case??
Yeah, for a game that has only been officially released for the last ~8 months, it already feels like they've added a ton of stuff. Rotations are going to be really important, and I agree that due to the mechanical constraints of different champion cards as well as the sheer number of regions, that will be very difficult for them to do well. Ultimately they'll probably end up rotation champions as well as their supporting cards, though it's hard to tell how they'll pick them. Some are obvious (e.g. all the Nightfall cards for Diana and Nocturne), but some are less obvious (e.g. you could remove various Freeze effects with Ashe, but that strikes at the core identity of Freljord). Honestly, I think they probably should be thinking about rotating regions too (which only makes the problem much harder). But then someone who really loves a specific region or champion might lose interest in the game.
This gets at the core of what I was talking about in my "what's their plan?" thread. They've created a huge, complex mess underneath this otherwise intriguing (and in some ways very novel) card game, and their solution to the complexity seems to be "keep throwing a bunch of stuff out there and see what sticks."
I promise you something like Mogwai putting a Fury of the North out to protect against Sunburst will happen and he will entirely change his view on the card. I'm pretty convinced his opinion was based on a lack of full understanding. Pretty much only Deny, Recall, (and maybe spellshield depending on how that works) will be able to stop it.
Hmm...we really only have one more space for a champion, don't we. I thought we had two left, for ASol and Soraka together, but I miscounted (stupid Nocturne). It's got to be Soraka, though...right? They've been showcasing Soraka cards throughout the week D:
Watch it be Tahm Kench and totally mess up all your predictions. :-P
@CursedParrot: Those are some important questions! My gut says progress is not lost but also cannot be gained while Silenced. (If the Champion can remember its buffs and text, it should also be able to remember its progress.)
Suddenly Sunburst is feeling a little more niche, but I'm still not convinced it's as bad as some streamers say. I don't imagine they'll be all that gung-ho for Hush, either, since it's also not permanent. I think they are both good, but they have very different applications. As the only Champion Silencers in the game, I have to believe they are relevant.
You just don't want to pay 6 mana for a 2-health body unless it's going to be immediately lethal. So the question is, how often will that happen with this card? I'm actually starting to think a Daybreak-Nightfall hybrid deck might be a good look. Or support? Giving a supporter Elusive is pretty fun.
A lot of Champion spells are weak or borderline, but this one is absolutely worth including on its own merit, even without Diana. Combat trick cantrips are solid gold in this game. As possibly the only way to give Diana her self-buff on an open attack, I think you'll definitely be running a full set of these with her.
Love the card, but can we take a moment to note that her voice in the showcase video is not the same as her League iteration? She sounds very different, and I'm not super thrilled about it :(
Finally, as a zero mana spell it could be useful in a fizz deck.
I think it was shown with Diana's Nightfall cards on purpose, to push people to realize/theorize the two of them together (Targon/P&Z). A zero mana spell means a free Nightfall proc, and the Daring Poros are also useful cards to trigger Nightfall ('cause they're so cheap).
It's arguably better than Warning Shot for this purpose, the main card people were speculating about for Nightfall procs.
no offense, but this just seems like a worse version of Face Hunter.
I can't try it because I don't have Polkelt, but overall you're playing a burn deck with such a large curve and no utility whatsoever that if your opponent ever gets ahead you have no way of coming back (especially since about 20% of your draws are just dead until turn 7)
As for the card, even though it's slow, the buff can be very substantial in a Daybreak-heavy deck. Of course, that means you're already running Leona, so do you need even more copies? No one runs For Demacia!, so it's iffy at best. But part of me thinks you're really going to enjoy playing this when Leona's on board.
New Targon Champion - Diana
A unit with Challenger + Quick Attack is basically a 0 for 1 removal card. That pair of keywords isn't broken today because getting a unit with both Challenger and Quick Attack typically requires spending a card on top of the body (e.g. Sonic Wave or Rush), making it a 1 for 1 trade every time. Since your nightfall cards aren't being destroyed to give Diana her buff, she will be super broken in match-ups where your opponent lacks 3 damage removal spells.
@FortyDust, if they include enough ways to trigger Diana's effect on open attack, Nightfall isn't working properly as a mechanic. Getting a Nightfall effect and open attacking is probably okay in a small percentage of games (after all, you certainly want to feel like your champion is powerful), but the mechanic needs to really force players to make hard choices about open attacking or it's not going to make for fun play patterns. It does seem to be possible to do with Diana's signature spell - Pale Cascade - but so far that's the only burst speed Nightfall spell.
Secret Lair Returns Later This Month With a Dog Sleeve in MTG Arena - International Dog Day 2020
I'm very disappointed they aren't pushing digital copies with the purchase. It would be an amazing way to boost the sales and make paper look even larger than it is.
Though, I do agree, they should just make this available as a purchase in MTG Arena itself. It would have to be a bit cheaper, though you would get a full playset since they are cosmetic skins, so it wouldn't be too cheap. I'd love myself some Eldraine lands or those SUPER SEXY Theros gods they put out during the world champs last year.
I think the ban and suspensions is important though. Keeping the games 1:1 makes it very easy to transition between them. Magic already has a lot of rules and is quite a complicated game so adding more confusion into the mix doesn't seem like a great idea. Definitely one of the more unfortunate downsides to their digital format since it doesn't feel very digital.
Discover Effect: What are the probabilities?
I cannot give you a real answer to this as I don't know how the program exactly resolves the discovery choices (and to my knowledge Blizzard has never said how they are doing it exactly). I would like to point out a couple of issues though:
But hey I'm not a statistics expert, so feel free to proof me wrong. Besides even an expert (outside Blizzard) might not be able to answer this properly without the knowledge how this is exactly resolved by the program. I guess there are multiple options.
Discover Effect: What are the probabilities?
TL;DR - Does Discover give every card an equal probability of being displayed?
When the Discover effect was changed to "not favor class cards", I just naively assumed that every available card had an equal probabiltiy of being shown as an option.
For example, Primordial Explorer gives you the option of 3 dragons and there are currently 20 Neutral Dragons and 2 Hunter class Dragons in Standard (not counting Primoridal Explorer itself given the recent change). Without thinking about it, I just assumed that the probability of getting say Rotnest Drake was 1/22 for the 1st discover option, 1/21 for the 2nd discover option, and 1/20 for the 3rd discover option (I don't remember ever getting the same Dragon shown twice, but if that's possible then the probability would be 1/22 for each option).
However, this video was randomly recommended to me on YouTube today (had never heard of them before) and I gave it a listen. The hyperlink skips to the 43:45 mark where an argument is made that Discover instead works as a 2-stage gamble so-to-speak. For each of the 3 options there's a 1/2 probability that the card will be drawn from the Neutral Pool or the Class Pool. After this, another die is rolled where every card in the respective pool has an equal probability of being displayed (without replacement).
So in the example above the probability of Rotnest Drake would be 25% for each of the 3 discover options (50% to be a class card and then 50% to be Rotnest Drake given that it's a class card). Is this really the case??
Tell me about the current state of Hearthstone - Good time to return?
What do you guys think are the safe/must craft legendaries? For example, is DQ Alexstraza still good post-nerf?
The Pepper Thread - Share Some Good Vibes!
My first attempt at Murlocs in BG. Apparently they're good?
[Game] Card Treasure Hunt (The Resurrection Attempt)
Reptilian Animosity
And Equal Opportunity .
Seeks out He and She,
If not for Your Scrutiny.
[Game] Card Treasure Hunt (The Resurrection Attempt)
Oops sorry I even assumed it might be wrong. Give me a few minutes to whip one up...
Thoughts on the new sets and expansion structure
Yeah, for a game that has only been officially released for the last ~8 months, it already feels like they've added a ton of stuff. Rotations are going to be really important, and I agree that due to the mechanical constraints of different champion cards as well as the sheer number of regions, that will be very difficult for them to do well. Ultimately they'll probably end up rotation champions as well as their supporting cards, though it's hard to tell how they'll pick them. Some are obvious (e.g. all the Nightfall cards for Diana and Nocturne), but some are less obvious (e.g. you could remove various Freeze effects with Ashe, but that strikes at the core identity of Freljord). Honestly, I think they probably should be thinking about rotating regions too (which only makes the problem much harder). But then someone who really loves a specific region or champion might lose interest in the game.
This gets at the core of what I was talking about in my "what's their plan?" thread. They've created a huge, complex mess underneath this otherwise intriguing (and in some ways very novel) card game, and their solution to the complexity seems to be "keep throwing a bunch of stuff out there and see what sticks."
New Targon Spell - Hush
I promise you something like Mogwai putting a Fury of the North out to protect against Sunburst will happen and he will entirely change his view on the card. I'm pretty convinced his opinion was based on a lack of full understanding. Pretty much only Deny, Recall, (and maybe spellshield depending on how that works) will be able to stop it.
nightfall
skitterer over shadestalker maybe?
A Wild Hearthstone Weekend Featuring Oil Rogue, Turtle Freeze Mage, Cubelock, and More!
New Piltover & Zaun Spell - Poro Cannon
Oh yeah! Since it discards 1 card to generate 2 cards, it's also not a net card loss like Warning Shot.
Quest Trading - Play A Friend!
Battletag: Umbra#1359
Region: NA
Trade Only?: Yes, you go first
Diana is the Newest Legends of Runeterra Targon Champion Coming in Call of the Mountain (5 New Cards Revealed!)
Watch it be Tahm Kench and totally mess up all your predictions. :-P
But seriously, I think you're right about Soraka and that she'll have a healing synergy--cards like Broadbacked Protector, Resplendent Stellacorn, and Guiding Touch just seem too weak without payout from a champion synergy.
New Targon Champion - Diana
Always love Quick Attack, but it takes a bit of effort to give her Challenger on an open attack -- even more effort than Lee Sin.
We definitely need more Duskpetal Dust generators.
New Targon Spell - Hush
@CursedParrot: Those are some important questions! My gut says progress is not lost but also cannot be gained while Silenced. (If the Champion can remember its buffs and text, it should also be able to remember its progress.)
Suddenly Sunburst is feeling a little more niche, but I'm still not convinced it's as bad as some streamers say. I don't imagine they'll be all that gung-ho for Hush, either, since it's also not permanent. I think they are both good, but they have very different applications. As the only Champion Silencers in the game, I have to believe they are relevant.
Diana is the Newest Legends of Runeterra Targon Champion Coming in Call of the Mountain (5 New Cards Revealed!)
all new champions seems very weak, compared to some old guy ...
New Targon Card - Cygnus the Moonstalker
You just don't want to pay 6 mana for a 2-health body unless it's going to be immediately lethal. So the question is, how often will that happen with this card? I'm actually starting to think a Daybreak-Nightfall hybrid deck might be a good look. Or support? Giving a supporter Elusive is pretty fun.
New Targon Spell - Pale Cascade
A lot of Champion spells are weak or borderline, but this one is absolutely worth including on its own merit, even without Diana. Combat trick cantrips are solid gold in this game. As possibly the only way to give Diana her self-buff on an open attack, I think you'll definitely be running a full set of these with her.
New Targon Champion - Diana
Love the card, but can we take a moment to note that her voice in the showcase video is not the same as her League iteration? She sounds very different, and I'm not super thrilled about it :(
New Piltover & Zaun Spell - Poro Cannon
I think it was shown with Diana's Nightfall cards on purpose, to push people to realize/theorize the two of them together (Targon/P&Z). A zero mana spell means a free Nightfall proc, and the Daring Poros are also useful cards to trigger Nightfall ('cause they're so cheap).
It's arguably better than Warning Shot for this purpose, the main card people were speculating about for Nightfall procs.
New Piltover & Zaun Spell - Poro Cannon
Once you've eaten a couple of Poro Snax, Daring Poro becomes a huge threat. Creating two at once could be a strong finisher for that kind of deck.
7 Off-Meta Decks Using Unpopular Scholomance Legendaries
no offense, but this just seems like a worse version of Face Hunter.
I can't try it because I don't have Polkelt, but overall you're playing a burn deck with such a large curve and no utility whatsoever that if your opponent ever gets ahead you have no way of coming back (especially since about 20% of your draws are just dead until turn 7)
New Targon Spell - Morning Light
First, thank you for creating this thread.
As for the card, even though it's slow, the buff can be very substantial in a Daybreak-heavy deck. Of course, that means you're already running Leona, so do you need even more copies? No one runs For Demacia!, so it's iffy at best. But part of me thinks you're really going to enjoy playing this when Leona's on board.