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Hearthstone | Posted by | 5 years, 11 months ago
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Do the odds increase the closer you are to the pity timer?

Hey guys,  just wondering, do the odds increase the closer you are to the pity timer?

For example, I am at pack 25 without a legendary.
Are the odds to get the legendary like scenario 1 or scenario 2?

(NOTE: I am guessing the numbers here lol, I don't know the actual value)

Scenario 1 - Flat Percentage

Pack 26 - 1.50%
Pack 27 - 1.50%
Pack 28 - 1.50%
...
Pack 39 - 1.50%
Pack 40 - 100.00%

Scenario 2 - Increasing Percentage

Pack 26 - 1.50%
Pack 27 - 5.00%
Pack 28 - 10.00%
...
Pack 39 - 80.00%
Pack 40 - 100.00%

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  • Hey guys,  just wondering, do the odds increase the closer you are to the pity timer?

    For example, I am at pack 25 without a legendary.
    Are the odds to get the legendary like scenario 1 or scenario 2?

    (NOTE: I am guessing the numbers here lol, I don't know the actual value)

    Scenario 1 - Flat Percentage

    Pack 26 - 1.50%
    Pack 27 - 1.50%
    Pack 28 - 1.50%
    ...
    Pack 39 - 1.50%
    Pack 40 - 100.00%

    Scenario 2 - Increasing Percentage

    Pack 26 - 1.50%
    Pack 27 - 5.00%
    Pack 28 - 10.00%
    ...
    Pack 39 - 80.00%
    Pack 40 - 100.00%

  • Id guess the first one 

  • It's probably the first scenario, I could imagine scenario 2 being true but with much smaller increases each pack. 

    As in Pack 39 might have as high as a 5% if there are incremental increases and then the large jump to 100% chance at pack 40.

  • The second one is true. Although I can't provide a source ( yet) I remember reading that the probability increases for the 35th to 39th Pack.

    Edit: found a link, the probability increases after Pack 35.

    ttps://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3zaeou/pity_timer_on_packs_opening_analysiskinda_proofed/

    Mind you, it's just a reddit post, nothing official. 

  • As far as I remember, and understood back then, odds increase with packs, but following a slow curve that flats out at 40.

  • I remember hearing that the chance of a Legendary does increase as you open more packs. The number jumps a lot at 20 packs, and is 100% at 40 packs.

    Friendly

  • Thanks for the responses!

  • Really? has this progressive chance increased been confirmed or hinted at before?

    I've often suspected it, but obviously never confirmed

    Friendly