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Hearthstone | Posted by | 6 years, 7 months ago
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Quest deck winrates

So, we're a few days into the expansion. Of course a lot of decks are still being refined heavily but looking at hsreplay just now surprised me. The meta archetypes tab in particular: https://hsreplay.net/meta/#tab=archetypes

The only quest deck with a positive winrate is the paladin one. Obviously half of the quests were quite obviously going to be meme tier at best. But quest druid and shaman not being able to hit an average winrate of 50% or higher baffles me. 

My assumption why only Uther's quest seems competitive would be because quest paladin destroys the 'strongest' deck right now, control warrior. With a whopping 76.8% winrate no less. Whereas all the other decks stand no chance against good ol' Garrosh. Even quest shaman with its near infinite value seems to be no match. 

What are your thoughts on why this is the case? Do you think druid, shaman or any other quest deck can still climb to a positive winrate?

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  • So, we're a few days into the expansion. Of course a lot of decks are still being refined heavily but looking at hsreplay just now surprised me. The meta archetypes tab in particular: https://hsreplay.net/meta/#tab=archetypes

    The only quest deck with a positive winrate is the paladin one. Obviously half of the quests were quite obviously going to be meme tier at best. But quest druid and shaman not being able to hit an average winrate of 50% or higher baffles me. 

    My assumption why only Uther's quest seems competitive would be because quest paladin destroys the 'strongest' deck right now, control warrior. With a whopping 76.8% winrate no less. Whereas all the other decks stand no chance against good ol' Garrosh. Even quest shaman with its near infinite value seems to be no match. 

    What are your thoughts on why this is the case? Do you think druid, shaman or any other quest deck can still climb to a positive winrate?

    • Quote From iWatchUSleep

      So, we're a few days into the expansion. Of course a lot of decks are still being refined heavily but looking at hsreplay just now surprised me. The meta archetypes tab in particular: https://hsreplay.net/meta/#tab=archetypes

      The only quest deck with a positive winrate is the paladin one. Obviously half of the quests were quite obviously going to be meme tier at best. But quest druid and shaman not being able to hit an average winrate of 50% or higher baffles me. 

      My assumption why only Uther's quest seems competitive would be because quest paladin destroys the 'strongest' deck right now, control warrior. With a whopping 76.8% winrate no less. Whereas all the other decks stand no chance against good ol' Garrosh. Even quest shaman with its near infinite value seems to be no match. 

      What are your thoughts on why this is the case? Do you think druid, shaman or any other quest deck can still climb to a positive winrate?

      Too soon, you're making assumptions too soon, Executus!!!

  • I dont know man, people are still trying and experementing, I wouldnt make any assumptions just yet. I havent played ladder yet but I have tried the brawl twice with quest Shaman and went 12-2 and 10-3 so it feels pretty strong to me tbh. About the other ones I dont know, havent really tried them yet.

  • Hard to tell but i am shure beating warriors has a huge impact. I play paladin myself and warriors have a hard time.I just don´t play mechpala but it´s still good against control.

  • Old wisdom of Kripp: A quest is a waste of where a 1-drop might go. Tempo sacrifice; giving up the board initially. I don't always subscribe to the tempo doctrines, but I see his point. That's the first strike on quests.

    Quest Shaman is using lackeys to fuel it; they're hit and miss at times, and late game they're not pulling their weight. Its only saving grace is flexibility -- and the Shudderwock.

    Quest Druid runs into Control Warrior or anything with multiple board clears -- DELETED, DEFEATED. 

    Quest Priest is no early game, all late game. Which is the situation priest is kinda stuck in already.

    Quest Hunter is Druid and Priest quest issues with a bunch of pinpricks, instead of anything solid or clever. And it takes forever, but that's a good thing BECAUSE HEARTHSTONE DOESN'T NEED MORE HUNTERS RIGHT NOW.

    Quest Rogue slammed into the wall that has the words ROGUE IS NOT A LONG-GAME CONTROL CLASS. Especially when Conjurer's Calling Mage and King Phaoris are running in the streets of the meta. I always seem to get a Quest Rogue paired against me when I play Big Paladin or Big Shaman, come to think of it, and it cheers me up. Rogues rue the day Vanish was exiled to wild.

    Quest Warlock is for now only the playground of Brian Kibler, much like any warlock deck not running zoo. Which explains why every warlock I've run into is aggro garbage these days and anyone else trying a control or OTK warlock deck (including myself) often ends up with egg on their face.

    I haven't run into a Quest Paladin, so I can't really comment. But I've heard good word of mouth after it was initially ridiculed for being underwhelming (didn't we learn anything from Malfurion the Pestilent looking tame compared to his fellow death knights?) and thematically not fitting a paladin? "Sir Uther of the Holy Knightly Order of Necromancy, at your command?"

    Who needs Quest Mage when you got all these options and can end it with just a Conjurer's Calling Mountain Giant combo or discount King Phaoris?

    Who needs Quest Warrior when you got Dr. Boom's hero card and established decks and good taunts taking up choice spots?

  • What about quest wall priest? Also is in tier 2.

    • Quote From DoubleSummon

      What about quest wall priest? Also is in tier 2.

      If you can survive and aren't facing something that can remove/polymorph big stuff fast (control shaman and warrior in particular) it's nice. But I've had more success with warrior, mage and shaman decks.

      I have yet to see a High Priest Amet used though, as much fear and hoopla streamers made of it.

      • Quote From ShotgunSoul
        Quote From DoubleSummon

        What about quest wall priest? Also is in tier 2.

        If you can survive and aren't facing something that can remove/polymorph big stuff fast (control shaman and warrior in particular) it's nice. But I've had more success with warrior, mage and shaman decks.

        I have yet to see a High Priest Amet used though, as much fear and hoopla streamers made of it.

        I am talking about the data OP totally ignored also taunt ress quest priest is at 50%+ win rate..

        also both quest druid and quest shaman have like 100 different builds and different strategies.. I think the sub 50% winrate is cause of experimentation.. you can check that some lists have more than 3000 games and 55+ win rate so it's not over for the 2 most anticipated quests.

    • Quote From DoubleSummon

      What about quest wall priest? Also is in tier 2.

      Oh shoot, you're right! I totally missed that one, my bad.

      So we're at 2/9 now then. 

  • I can't see how Quest Shaman can NOT be refined enough as to reach top tier.

    It's not even necessary to make it a Lackey deck. Murloc would also fit. Or even a Midrange list with Hagatha. The Quest does not need to be completed ASAP, just soon enough. And 6 is so low...

    Losing turn-1 cannot be an issue in a class with so many tools and comebacks in their arsenal.

    Surely only few Quests will survive the meta, but it is too early to call all of them a failure.

  • I have created 5 different decks with Corrupt the Waters.  2 were ok, 2 were decent, 50% win rates, and the third has had me lock in 5-10 wins in 4 brawlasiums...  And no matter what version I play this data will lump every deck as ‘quest shaman.’  

    This data is flawed for lots of reasons but that’s  the guiltiest offender 

  • I've run across almost nothing but Paladins today. Most of those were the quest variety with a couple of Holy Wrath Paladins thrown in for good measure. I can honestly say that the Paladin quest is insanely powerful. The high number of Reborn cards give them great value while they work to complete their quest, and then they invariably drop a Mechano-Egg and magnetize a taunt to it and then copy it to oblivion. Your only options are to clear out all their minions in one fell swoop and deal with all the 8/8's left in their wake, silence everything and hope hope they don't have any more, or somehow muster enough burn spells to take them out directly without dealing with their never ending minions. It's a very oppressive deck in my opinion, and I hope it doesn't become a problem in this meta, but I'm afraid it will. Out of more than a dozen games today, I played at least 10 Quest Paladins. There was only one that I was able to run down before he could run away with the board, and I think it was more because he didn't have a complete collection. Silence is gonna rule if this keeps up.

  • Quest Paladin can be very slow to start. I've been able to crush them with aggro decks. But yes, if they get the quest going and make copies of the deathrattles, it is very oppressive.

  • Quest Shaman is a solid Tier 2 deck but I don't see it making it to Tier 1 with the current crop of mediocre early game battlecry minions. I wonder if someone will perfect a list that incorporates overload mechanics, because Thunderhead and Vessina are amazing four drops. But they're not battlecry minions. Time will tell.

  • I'd like to think that the lower winrate of quest shaman and quest druid is due to the large amount of experimentation, and that as time goes on, the better builds will win out and they will both end up with higher winrates.  I'm not so hopeful though, especially on quest druid.  Quest shaman shows more promise.

    For quest druid:  At all ranks, it is 49.5% over the entire expansion.  Last 3 days it is at 48.7% and last 1 day it is at 47.5%.  So it seems that the quest druid is just worsening over time.  At upper ranks it is doing even worse.  From rank 5-legend, it is 47.1% over the whole expansion, 46.6% over past 3 days and 45.7% over the past day.  It's looking bleak for quest druid.  

    For quest shaman:  At all ranks, it is 49% over the entire expansion.  Past 3 days, it is also 49%.  Past 1 day, it is up to 49.5%.  It's been improving slightly, so there might be some promise here.  At upper ranks, it is 48.2% over the whole expansion.  Past 3 days, it is at 48.3%.  Past 1 day it is at 48.6%.  So we've seen some improvement, though it's still fairly negative.

    Quest shaman I'd say is also the deck that has the most possibilities for different builds.  You can go all the way from a fast aggro version meant to burn down the opponent immediately, all the way up to a fatigue style control deck.  So there's a lot more possibilities and variance in the builds, as well as a lot more room to find the perfect formula that will have the best chances of winning in the current meta.

    Quest druid on the other hand is far more straight forward in its build.  The number of different choose one cards are rather limited, so the different ways you can actually build the deck are limited as well.  Druid doesn't have the tools to be much of a control deck without single target removals or any serious board clears, nor can the quest be aggro with how it forces you to skip using your mana.  It will always be either a midrange value deck or some sort of crazy combo deck with Elise.

    So based on the info we have available, I'd assume that when everything is finished, quest shaman will end up as a pretty solid T2 deck list while quest druid will be little more than a tier 3 deck used in certain competitive circumstances where you can ban bad matchups.  Even then though, there may be better options.

    • Quote From Aidan0816

      I'd like to think that the lower winrate of quest shaman and quest druid is due to the large amount of experimentation, and that as time goes on, the better builds will win out and they will both end up with higher winrates.  I'm not so hopeful though, especially on quest druid.  Quest shaman shows more promise.

      For quest druid:  At all ranks, it is 49.5% over the entire expansion.  Last 3 days it is at 48.7% and last 1 day it is at 47.5%.  So it seems that the quest druid is just worsening over time.  At upper ranks it is doing even worse.  From rank 5-legend, it is 47.1% over the whole expansion, 46.6% over past 3 days and 45.7% over the past day.  It's looking bleak for quest druid.  

      For quest shaman:  At all ranks, it is 49% over the entire expansion.  Past 3 days, it is also 49%.  Past 1 day, it is up to 49.5%.  It's been improving slightly, so there might be some promise here.  At upper ranks, it is 48.2% over the whole expansion.  Past 3 days, it is at 48.3%.  Past 1 day it is at 48.6%.  So we've seen some improvement, though it's still fairly negative.

      Quest shaman I'd say is also the deck that has the most possibilities for different builds.  You can go all the way from a fast aggro version meant to burn down the opponent immediately, all the way up to a fatigue style control deck.  So there's a lot more possibilities and variance in the builds, as well as a lot more room to find the perfect formula that will have the best chances of winning in the current meta.

      Quest druid on the other hand is far more straight forward in its build.  The number of different choose one cards are rather limited, so the different ways you can actually build the deck are limited as well.  Druid doesn't have the tools to be much of a control deck without single target removals or any serious board clears, nor can the quest be aggro with how it forces you to skip using your mana.  It will always be either a midrange value deck or some sort of crazy combo deck with Elise.

      So based on the info we have available, I'd assume that when everything is finished, quest shaman will end up as a pretty solid T2 deck list while quest druid will be little more than a tier 3 deck used in certain competitive circumstances where you can ban bad matchups.  Even then though, there may be better options.

      These statistics are really interesting. I'm guessing they're from hsreplay. Are they premium only?

       

      Some great insights overall. I guess I thought quest shaman would be more straightforward than it is. Throwing in all the lackey synergies + good lategame value cards such as Swampqueen Hagatha and Shudderwock mixed with some boardclear isn't enough to have the deck reach 50% just yet apparently.

      Will be interesting to see how the quests further develop, and what vS' thoughts are coming thursday.

      • Quote From iWatchUSleep
        Quote From Aidan0816

        I'd like to think that the lower winrate of quest shaman and quest druid is due to the large amount of experimentation, and that as time goes on, the better builds will win out and they will both end up with higher winrates.  I'm not so hopeful though, especially on quest druid.  Quest shaman shows more promise.

        For quest druid:  At all ranks, it is 49.5% over the entire expansion.  Last 3 days it is at 48.7% and last 1 day it is at 47.5%.  So it seems that the quest druid is just worsening over time.  At upper ranks it is doing even worse.  From rank 5-legend, it is 47.1% over the whole expansion, 46.6% over past 3 days and 45.7% over the past day.  It's looking bleak for quest druid.  

        For quest shaman:  At all ranks, it is 49% over the entire expansion.  Past 3 days, it is also 49%.  Past 1 day, it is up to 49.5%.  It's been improving slightly, so there might be some promise here.  At upper ranks, it is 48.2% over the whole expansion.  Past 3 days, it is at 48.3%.  Past 1 day it is at 48.6%.  So we've seen some improvement, though it's still fairly negative.

        Quest shaman I'd say is also the deck that has the most possibilities for different builds.  You can go all the way from a fast aggro version meant to burn down the opponent immediately, all the way up to a fatigue style control deck.  So there's a lot more possibilities and variance in the builds, as well as a lot more room to find the perfect formula that will have the best chances of winning in the current meta.

        Quest druid on the other hand is far more straight forward in its build.  The number of different choose one cards are rather limited, so the different ways you can actually build the deck are limited as well.  Druid doesn't have the tools to be much of a control deck without single target removals or any serious board clears, nor can the quest be aggro with how it forces you to skip using your mana.  It will always be either a midrange value deck or some sort of crazy combo deck with Elise.

        So based on the info we have available, I'd assume that when everything is finished, quest shaman will end up as a pretty solid T2 deck list while quest druid will be little more than a tier 3 deck used in certain competitive circumstances where you can ban bad matchups.  Even then though, there may be better options.

        These statistics are really interesting. I'm guessing they're from hsreplay. Are they premium only?

         

        Some great insights overall. I guess I thought quest shaman would be more straightforward than it is. Throwing in all the lackey synergies + good lategame value cards such as Swampqueen Hagatha and Shudderwock mixed with some boardclear isn't enough to have the deck reach 50% just yet apparently.

        Will be interesting to see how the quests further develop, and what vS' thoughts are coming thursday.

        Yeah, they're from hsreplay.  Premium lets you view a lot more things than you get to see for free.  It's pretty cheap, provides some interesting statistics to look at (being able to see deck popularity at each rank is pretty useful too), and I like being able to support the info that hsreplay puts out.

        I've been trying a quest shaman that's basically a control shaman list.  Earthquake is a really nice AOE in a lot of instances and plague of murlocs does give us a way of dealing with early giants.  I'm just not sure if the quest actually makes sense in the deck; it might be better to just drop the quest and lackey stuff in favor of more removal like hex or lightning bolt.

  • It's simple:

    • Quest paladin has an insane winrate against control warrior, which is tier 1
    • Quest shaman is harder to refine than the rest because of how many battlecries there are in the game (you can't just search for "reborn" and add everything like paladin); its winrate should rise at some point
    • Quest druid looks good on paper, but loses hard to all of the current top tier decks (control warrior, giant mages, murloc paladin).  In a more stable meta where people are triharding, the deck is just not good.  I've played 29 games total @ rank 1 and haven't found a single druid
    • Everything else is just bad and/or has a stronger non-quest counterpart

    IMO, the druid quest has potential as a support card for other archetypes of druid, where instead of spamming choose 1 cards as your win condition, you have some kind of combo or other finisher.  The quest is probably worth playing just to activate your nourish, oasis surgers, wrath and starfall.  I wouldn't call these quest druids anymore than you'd call the current control warriors "taunt warrior" for having a small amount of taunt synergy however  

  • I think the largest reasons why the quest decks aren't doing well, like what pretty much everybody else has stated, is simply that the meta isn't in a great spot for them. The whole issue kind of boils down to you jump through a bunch of hurdles to get a hero power that is supposed to synergize with your deck and push you to win, but either the hero power isn't strong enough, like in the case of rogue or hunter, or it just can't compete with other late-game alternatives. I think it is fairly safe to say that almost all the hero powers you get from quests are worse than the Dr. Boom's hero power, which you get from playing a single card instead of dedicating a good portion, if not the entire deck to get a similar power level hero power.

    It's pretty safe to say that some of these quests are going to get better next year, once Dr. Boom (and I guess Hagatha to a lesser extent) rotate out since there will be significantly less powerful control options for the late game (hopefully they don't decide to create more heroes for one class).

    On that note though, I think another large reason why the quest decks don't have a high win rate is that right now, pretty much all of them don't win you the game. If you take a look at all the successful quest rewards in the past, even those which were less successful such as Nether Portal, they would all be powerful to carry you to win the game, if not too powerful cough Crystal Core cough. I love Ascendant Scroll and all, but there are too many 'junk' spells you can get to really have it be a proper win condition. Sure the Heart of Vir'naal can pick on more midrange decks but it doesn't hold a candle to the value generated from Hagatha and Dr. Boom.

  • Another perspective of quest druid is that 90% of the players complete the quest ASAP without actually trying to remove stuff if it delays their quest, people are not used to play quest druid, the deck might be just MEH but at the same time it's build + gameplay not just build for that deck specifically since it's the only quest that requires a lot of choices during it's completion.. do I waste coin to complete the quest? is this board going to snowball?

    Completing the quest 2-3 turns later but not dying to aggro might be a better approach to it, and most players I played against just complete the quest and immediately die..

    I predict quest druid will be tier 3 but good players will have their 55% win rate with the right build so the deck might have higher win rate in legend after a few weeks.