Balance Patch Predictions?

Here's mine:

• Boomcrew Rookie from 1/4 to 1/3
• Used Cask Salesman from 3/2 to 2/2
• Loyal Badgerbear from 4/4 to 4/3
• Unyielding Spirit increases from 8 mana to 9 mana
• L1 Vi from 2+/5 with tough to either 2+/4 or no tough.
• L1 Jinx from 4/3 to 4/4
• L1 Shen from 2/5 to 2/7
• Chief Mechanist Zevi decreased from 6 mana to 5 mana (5/6)
• Unscarred Reaver gains tough (1 mana 0+/3)
• Ember Maiden from 3/2 to 3/3
• Aurora Porealis from 7 mana to 6 mana
• The Syren's passive bonus loses the stipulation of attacking

Good ideas! The only things that I think could be different is that I think Unyielding Spirit might become Fast (so there’s more counterplay) and Loyal Badgerbear will probably either not be nerfed or gain some kind of text to make up for it losing stats (like it could be a 3 Mana 3/4 with “I have +1|+0 while you have a Demacian Ally”).

In terms of my ideal changes, I would also like Vi to be changed to be a little more synergistic, like maybe “Whenever you play a card that didn’t start in your deck or has Fleeting, grant me +1|+0 wherever I am.” This would make her good in something like a shuffle deck, a fleeting deck, or a Pursuit of Perfection deck, instead of making her amazing in every deck.

I get a lot of these changes, but why the update to Jinx? Just because they added Noxian Fervor and Gotcha! to the game?

Also, while Loyal Badgerbear is very powerful, the nerf you're suggesting makes him a worse Iron Ballista. The real problem in my mind is the Grizzled Ranger.

And I agree with CursedParrot that Unyielding Spirit needs a speed change.

Quote From meisterz39

And I agree with CursedParrot that Unyielding Spirit needs a speed change.

Might just delete the card as well.

There are plenty of other ways to nerf it, you guys are just picking the worst one.

Quote From Hellcopter

Quote From meisterz39

And I agree with CursedParrot that Unyielding Spirit needs a speed change.

Might just delete the card as well.

There are plenty of other ways to nerf it, you guys are just picking the worst one.

So what do you recommend instead? Or is the snarky response all you've got?

One card I'm surprised missed the original list is Shadow Assassin. It's a 3-of auto include in every Ionia deck regardless of the strategy they're trying to implement. It just does a little too much for its cost. I'd nerf it down to a 2/1.

 Cards that might be nerfed next patch:
 Unyielding Spirit -> Change text "Ally" to "Follower".
 Boomcrew Rookie -> 1/2 or 1 damage
 Imperial Demolitionist -> 1 damage
 Crimson Disciple -> 1 damage
 War Chefs -> 2/2
 Grizzled Ranger -> 2/1

Cards that i would like to see nerfed but i don't think Riot will do it right now:
Deep Meditation -> Slow
Will of Ionia -> 5 mana
Solitary Monk -> 3/4
Precious Pet -> 1/1 + Last Breath: Deal 1 damage to the enemy nexus
Ezreal -> Level Up: target 10 times
Terror of the Tides -> 9 mana

Cards i like to see a buff someday:
Iceborn Legacy -> Fast
Avalanche -> 3 damage OR Fast
Poro Herder -> Remove condition
Braum -> 5 damage (His level up is not that OP for todays meta anyway)
Shared Spoils -> 3 mana, draw a card OR reduced cost 1 mana. 

When I first saw this list, I though the Ember Maiden was a great idea for a buff; I've played a lot of Sejuani/Swain and would love to see Ember Maiden stick to the board a little longer and/or offer a meaningful blocker after one proc.

This morning, though, I've been playing some Demacia/Freljord midrange, and her 2 Health has actually been a pretty big deal for how well she curves out in the deck. As a 3/2, she can easily activates Wolfrider and Radiant Guardian on curve*. Add in the fact that you can pretty easily use Take Heart to keep her on the board, and all the sudden I'm not convinced she needs any buffing.

* Obviously the "on curve" part gets a little odd if you manage to get both on curve rather than just one or the other, as you'll have 6 mana going into Round 5 and might prefer to play something like Sejuani

Quote From meisterz39

So what do you recommend instead? Or is the snarky response all you've got?

You are a smart guy, i am sure you don't need me for you to come out with a better solution that won't kill the card.

It was vastly discussed already, you might want to check for hints in old topics:

I am perfectly familiar with those discussions, and have even partaken in a few of them. And looking back on them, I think you articulated exactly why Unyielding Spirit needs to be nerfed.

• In that first linked post: "Riot has plans to release more Obliterate cards in the future, i would not worry too much about it."
  
  • "In the future," so the card is not being properly balanced out by the existing set of answers in LoR today.
• In the second linked post: "Let's not forget Judgment played on Fiora can potencially [sic] win the game right away while Unyielding spirit will take a couple turns."
  • The reason Judgment isn't a massively OP card is that its speed allows for counterplay from any region (with hard removal, damage-based removal, bounces/stuns, Frostbite, etc.).
• In the third linked post: "it is too costly/situational for high level games...its too annoying/lacks counterplay for casual/slow games."
  
  • You conflate casual and slow here, suggesting that "high level" is equivalent to fast/aggro. I suspect this is why you don't see clearly that this card is a problem. Two of the top tier decks today are slower Demacia decks that run one or two copies of Unyielding Spirit. Expensive, situation cards are the bread and butter of control decks, which plan to stabilize in the mid game and win with big, powerful, expensive plays in the late game. When the only reasonable counterplay to the card is "win with aggressive decks before Round 5 or 6," the meta game gets warped in a way that makes the play experience less fun for all archetypes. This was exactly what happened in Hearthstone with The Caverns Below.

Frankly, I don't know why I'm bothering to continue to argue this with you. We've already had this discussion (https://outof.cards/forums/legends-of-runeterra/runeterra-general/4170-fiora-unyielding-spirit-is-bs?page=1#comment-90407), and you yourself made my point for me:

Quote From Hellcopter

I fully agree with you but wasn't Hearthstone always this way after Naxxaramas? 

I mean, there was always this 1 way too powerfull [sic] deck warping the meta which was so much stronger then [sic] everything else that forced every other deck to either tech against it or to play counters.

I added the bold-facing in that quote to draw your attention to the critical part here - balance only works when other decks can tech against/play counters for the OP effects of decks they face off against.

I should have prefaced: these are my predictions for what Riot will actually patch, not necessarily what I would like to see patched.  I'm basing off patterns I've noticed:

• Overly popular early-game followers tend to get health reduced (e.g., Frenzied Skitterer, Chump Whump, Crowd Favorite, Kinkou Lifeblade)
• Overly popular champions either also get health reduced or lose a keyword (e.g., Hecarim, Fiora)
• Overly popular cards that generate board advantage tend to gain mana cost (e.g., Black Spear, The Rekindler, Back to Back, Rhasa the Sunderer)
• Unpopular champions--especially those you need to build you deck around--usually get a health buff (e.g., Kalista, Yasuo, Lux)
• Unpopular early-game followers also tend to gain health (e.g., Starlit Seer, Crimson Curator, Arena Battlecaster, Wyrding Stones)
• Unpopular spells meant to generate value tend to get cost reduced (e.g., Poro Snax, Brood Awakening, Blood for Blood)
• The majority of changes are either to the mana cost or unit stats.  Tweaking a champion's leveling is also fairly common, but stat changes are more prevalent.  Changing a spell's speed never occurs unless it is part of a rework, and reworks are only done to cards which are virtually unplayed.

Additionally, I'm making an assumption that Rising Tides cards are more likely candidates to receive buffs than the core set since they are effectively time-limited--e.g., Frejlord is more likely to see a buff to Ember Maiden than Avalanche and Demacia is more likely to see a nerf to either Loyal Badgerbear or Grizzled Ranger than Vanguard Bannerman or Single Combat.

Quote From Hellcopter

 Cards that might be nerfed next patch:
 Unyielding Spirit -> Change text "Ally" to "Follower".
 Boomcrew Rookie -> 1/2 or 1 damage
 Imperial Demolitionist -> 1 damage
 Crimson Disciple -> 1 damage
 War Chefs -> 2/2
 Grizzled Ranger -> 2/1

Good catch on the chefs--I meant to include that on my list but forgot.   I don't think I can agree with any of the others, though--perhaps Ranger as a 3/1, but 2/1 just seems too punitive for a 4-mana unit, and the others don't match the patterns.

Based on your newly stated set of patterns, I think Grizzled Ranger going from 4 to 5 mana seems pretty fair. He's certainly an overly popular card with the potential to create board advantage (though that category seems incredibly broad). More importantly in my mind, he's very easy to curve into Radiant Guardian today if your attack rounds are odd. Drop him at the end of round 4, then open attack with at the start of next round - worse case, you deal 4 damage, best case you get a 4/4 and an active Radiant Guardian to attack with when you go in with your whole board.

I disagree with Unyielding Spirit change. It needs its speed changed to at least fast. Even slow would be fair or at least make it so it can't be cast on champions.

I didn't had much time to play myself, but I watched quite a bit of mogwai and swim here's my observations about stuff that might need change.

gone over ALL cards and looked at what I think is too strong/weak (tons of buffs!) I will mark on bold those that I care about rather than just mentioned with a "why not"?

Nerfs:

Demacia:

buffs:

Suggestion: have an audio option to turn on "annoying voicelines" or something.

Quote From OldManSanns

Quote From Hellcopter

 Cards that might be nerfed next patch:
 Unyielding Spirit -> Change text "Ally" to "Follower".
 Boomcrew Rookie -> 1/2 or 1 damage
 Imperial Demolitionist -> 1 damage
 Crimson Disciple -> 1 damage
 War Chefs -> 2/2
 Grizzled Ranger -> 2/1

Good catch on the chefs--I meant to include that on my list but forgot.   I don't think I can agree with any of the others, though--perhaps Ranger as a 3/1, but 2/1 just seems too punitive for a 4-mana unit, and the others don't match the patterns.

The problem with ranger is that it has Scout. With a statline of 3+ attack, the defender doesn't really have the option to NOT block it, as taking 6+ damage directly for 4 mana and keeping the unit alive is Huge. On top of that, its also great on defense despite being an offensive card, as it deals 3+ damage to the target it blocks while summoning a 4/4.
Even as a 3/1, i still would play Ranger everywhere i could. Only starting from 2 attack that the defender may have interesting decisions if it should be blocked or not. 4 direct damage + (2/1+LB) body is not bad at all for 4 mana. Increasing the cost to 5 mana is also an option, but it probably won't see play there.

Finally, i don't expect all the cards to see nerfs, just some of them to tune down the clock on burn decks a bit.

I believe Riot will adress Unyielding Spirit just as DoubleSummon suggested, but 1 mana higher:
Unyielding Spirit -> 6 mana. Burst. Last until end of the turn.

They Who Endure cannot cost 7 without nerfing Ezreal first.

Great guesses everyone!  I count my final tally as 2 hits, 2 close, and 9 misses out of 13 total.  DoubleSummon had the most hits--6 direct, 2 close--but he also had a lot of misses so I don't know how you want to weigh that.  :-P  Shout-outs to CursedParrot on coming close to Badgebear and Hellcopter for close on Boomcrew and Ranger.

Quote From meisterz39

I get a lot of these changes, but why the update to Jinx? Just because they added Noxian Fervor and Gotcha! to the game?

No, I think Shen and Jinx need buffs strictly due to their playrate & winrate.  And honestly: even before Rising Tides, she was just too easy to pick off.  She would die to all the stuff old Yasuo died to: Get Excited, Thermo Beam, chef + challenger, kamikazi Fiora, single combat on anything with 3 attack, frostbite, barrier, etc.  2 new direct 3-damage spells plus AoE plus vulnerability have only hampered her survivability, and dumping your hand to level her only to see her picked off is almost always GG.

I was close with Shen (although honestly I think the HP would be much more appropriate than +1 attack--he needs to level to justify playing him, and most of the time he just doesn't live long enough to see 4 things get barrier), but then they went with Vladimir and Hecarim which surprised me.    They are both on the unpopular side, but I still at least see them both on occasion.  Honestly I think Hecarim is still quite strong as a 4/5 overwhelm that summons two 2/2s; I'm surprised he hasn't found his way into a meta deck.  But meanwhile I can't remember the last time I saw a Jinx in constructed.

Consider this: one of the most popular decks on the ladder right now is a P&Z/Noxus deck composed almost entirely of 1-3 mana cards, and you have a P&Z champion who's ability is "once your hand is empty, start drawing 2 cards at the start of your turn" of whom everyone gets 2 free copies, and everyone's like "nah, I think I'll just run some Decimates and Statikk Shock instead--they are more consistent".  That's really sad.

You did great OldmanSanns... but DoubleSummon must be a DoubleAgent ;)

Quote From Hellcopter

You did great OldmanSanns... but DoubleSummon must be a DoubleAgent ;)

When you fire so many bullets you are prone to hit a few XD I mentioned almost every over played/ underplayed card.

You all do a great job predicting which cards are gonna be hit. Sometimes eerily on point!