With the new expansion this evening I thought now would be a good time to offer a few words of wisdom regarding deckbuilding in a new expansion meta. I'm sure to some of you this will all be old news - but I see the same mistakes repeated often enough during the first week of an expansion that I feel a reminder is warranted.
I should add, to be clear - I am not a big deckbuilder. What I am, however, is a deck critic. I may not be able to put together a high legend decklist from scratch, but I can certainly look at a decklist that already exists and tell you what's wrong with it! I will also add that this advice is intended only for people who actively want to win games on ladder during this period - if you're more interested in building a fun list than a good one, by all means, go for it. I won't tell you it's wrong to build a fun list and have fun with it - I will, however, tell you it's wrong to build a 'for fun' list and expect it to win. For my own amusement, I'm going to include a 'that guy' for every point. Remember - don't be that guy.
1. If you want to rise, play aggro. Early control lists tend to be phenomenally greedy as people try to pack in all the shiny new win-more legendaries they got. They skimp on both early board pressure and AoE. If you care more about winning games than about checking out new cards, lean towards aggressive archetypes - not only do these punish deckbuilding mistakes more reliably than other archetypes, they're also a lot harder to screw up! That means if you do want to try out new cards, you can - and if you do it inside an aggro shell you're less likely to lose games because of it. That guy - jams ten 8+ cost cards into one deck and plays one of them per game at most.
2. Don't be greedy. If you are playing control, don't fall into that trap. Pay due respect to the aggressive lists that will be floating around. Don't just throw in a couple of AoE clears and decide that's good enough - if a single on-curve board clear was enough to shut out aggro decks they'd never be played. Even if you've got a control deck, look to be contesting the board as early as turn 1 or 2, bring targeted removal (or weapons) as well as AoE, and only include as many late-game finishers as you'd reasonably need. That guy - builds a mage list with two cards of <5 mana cost and a single flamestrike as AoE. Then whines on every forum he can find about how aggro is stupid and takes no skill.
3. Alternatively, be greedy. If you really want to run a greed list - and let's be honest, who hasn't been tempted when a new expansion drops and there's a bunch of cool high-cost legendaries - then go all out. There's no point including two anti-aggro cards in an otherwise heavily greedy list, because they're never going to be enough to do the job. If you're going greed, go FULL greed and ensure no control deck you meet can even hope to match your value. That guy - includes a tiny amount of anti-aggro in a horribly greedy list, then complains about losing to other greed decks because they'd just lose to aggro. Also loses to aggro; doesn't see the irony in this. If I'm going to be a 'that guy', this is probably the one I'll wind up as.
4. Identify your win condition. I see a lot of post-expansion decks that basically amount to jamming a bunch of new cards into a box and hoping you wind up winning somehow. Unfortunately, that's not really how card games work these days. You will need to know what your win condition is - whether it's aggression, direct damage, tempo, value - and be working towards it as early as the deckbuilding stage. With each card you add, challenge yourself to identify how it's working towards your win condition - and, if you want to win games, don't accept 'because it's so cool' as an answer. In particular, be careful of trying to 'do it all' - don't add cards 'just in case' if they're not furthering your game plan in some way. To give a classic example - I saw a lot of people putting Elysiana in their lists at the start of her expansion, presumably 'just in case it goes to fatigue' - despite their game plan not being value-oriented at all. That guy - has what amounts to 20 tech cards in a 30 card list. Complains about his awful luck because his topdecks are always so bad.
5. Avoid tech cards. Tech cards are for targeting something you're expecting to face a lot of, or for swinging close matchups. Neither is something you can realistically evaluate at this stage with any real reliability. Instead, build a generalist list, but identify 1-4 cards that you can easily flex into tech choices as you get a feel for what you're seeing a lot of. Alternatively, if you want my guess - Dragonmaw Poacher is the obvious one due to all the dragons floating around. The next level, however, is to also tech Big Game Hunter as the on-curve counter to an on-curve Poacher. I strongly suspect anti-weapon tech will be valuable due to Pirate and Warrior both being favoured, as well as Galakrond's fully invoked 5/2. But realistically I'm just taking educated guesses - because that's all you can do right now. That guy - insists on including double Hungry Crab in every list he makes because he hates Murlocs. Last saw a Murloc in-game before the Wild cards rotated in.
6. Think probabilities. Remember that very few games will see you draw your entire deck, and a sizeable percentage won't even make it to turn 10. If your deck requires you to draw certain cards - the most obvious current example being Invokers - include more copies than you're going to need, to ensure you draw the required number. If your deck relies heavily on specific cards, include tutors for those cards. If you're building a combo deck, include a LOT of card draw - preferably low cost card draw, as the longer it takes you to assemble your combo the more likely you are to run out of resources. That guy - puts two copies of Corrupt Elementalist in his Galakrond Shaman list, with no other Invokers. Complains about never having a fully Invoked Galakrond. Alternatively, runs exactly 25 mana of Paladin spells alongside Shirvallah.
Good luck with your Day 1 deckbuilding, folks.
