I have always like how Hearthstone plays around with Warcraft lore, and is just canonical enough to be believable even when it is doing the ridiculous. In my own head-canon the Book of Heroes plays out like a big therapy session in the Tavern, with the 10 of them sitting in a circle letting it all out :P
Anyway, my response was originally going to be Valeera protesting that rogue is the true go-to class, but the wiser part of me knew that would be a ridiculous claim when there are 3 classes for whom random value generation is a core part of their identity. So instead I just kept writing as I imagined it playing out if Valeera had actually made such a challenge, which ended up a lot more fun.
I'm not sure de-sexualisation is really the same thing as "cartoonization", and certainly it feels more like a response to modern western ideals than censorship for China. Hiding skeletons on the other hand...
Anyway, none of that has anything to do with which Arthas skin we got. That is a simple matter of representing the Paladin class with a Paladin and not a Death Knight. They can break class boundaries if they end up at a kind of non-class, e.g. N'Zoth isn't anything, and Maiev is a warden which is kind of a rogue but not really. But breaking class boundaries by using another playable class (in WoW) is a no-go.
Since they added DH I wouldn't be surprised if we got the DK class one day, but I don't think this is any sort of hint towards it. After all, it would be pretty tough to tell Uther's story without including his death at the hands of Arthas. Nevertheless, when DK does eventually arrive, and inevitably has Arthas/Lich King as the basic hero, I'm sure his Book of Heroes will involve that fight.
I have been curious for a while how they will handle The Lich King since they went out of their way to replace Illidan's card with Xavius, making it clear they don't want the basic heroes to have minion cards too. I guess they could choose a different character to be the basic hero, but that would feel as wrong as not using Illidan for DH.
I'll tell you what I would consider a hint at an 11th class though: if we (finally) go to Pandaria, have a bunch of Shado-Pan cards, but there is no sign of Taran Zhu. That would scream "monks are coming eventually and we are saving him for that".
The comparison with Apexis Blast (AB) is not as simple as you make it sound. When used for removal, AB has a strictly worse primary effect, and whether a random 5-drop on board is better than 2 known minions in hand is debatable. It is better for tempo, sure, but priest doesn't usually need to play for tempo.
On the assumption a spell priest would play to priest's strengths and grind out long games (instead of just trying to mimic spell hunter and have every spell summon minions, which always feels like it undermines the whole concept of the deck), Shattered Memory would normally be more useful than AB since a lonely 5-drop on board isn't going to achieve much anyway.
There is a fundamental point here: bad tempo does not equate to a bad card. The only reason it has felt that way for a while is because aggro has been pushed really hard in the Year of the Phoenix, but that was not always the case and will not always be the case in the future either.
I may have taken this question a little too literally...
Show Spoiler
Quote From BloodMefist
For quite some time now Mage has been the go-to 'random' class
Valeera's glowing eyes peer out of a dark corner of the Tavern, fixing an intense glare on Jaina. "So it's a random-off you want is it, mage?"
Everyone else groans as they return to their own games. All except Anduin that is, who eagerly watches to learn from his 'aunt'/advisor (Jaina) and bodyguard/spy/messenger/adopted sister/most trusted friend (Valeera). "Wow" he says, "that's really impressive Jaina! Where are you getting those cards from?"
She conjures a small portal and matter-of-factly answers with "thin air".
He turns his head to ask the same of Valeera, who gives the same answer with a sheepish glance at the adjacent table. An answer which she insists upon when Uther storms over calling for justice after his Tirion Fordring vanished from the board during his own game against Garrosh (who, being the good sport that he is, just laughed and pressed his attack).
At the end of the game, all 3 of them are wearing ridiculous smiles, and it doesn't matter that the winning card was the last in a line of 5 cards created out of 'thin air'. But the dark shadow of Illidan looms over them and snarls "Children, the lot of you. Let me show you how to play this game."
"Very well," replies Jaina with a wink to Anduin, "but I must warn you: you are not prepared for what I have up my sleeve."
Vacating her seat, Valeera slinks back to her corner, taking the scenic route past Uther's back pocket on the way.
Time Rip is a perfectly fine card (not stellar, but far from unplayable), and when satisfying the condition Shattered Memory would be better in both quality and quantity of minion generated. So it seems quite reasonable to me.
The Arthas portrait IS available in game. 'Just' beat the Lich King in the Knights of the Frozen Throne adventure with all 9 original classes. I assume you can still do this. Unless you want his portrait from the final encounter, but that's definitely not happening until Death Knight becomes a playable class.
As for a male rogue hero: well there should be a new rogue hero coming soon (TM). It's been a long time since they teased one was planned, and unless they plan these several years in advance it can't be far off now. Who knows whether it will be male though?
I'm hoping we get Bluther for the 3rd portrait when it his turn in the Tavern Pass. Kul Tiran Jaina showed those can depict a much more recent version of the character than the end-of-MoP basic portraits, and let's be honest, Uther hasn't got many looks to choose from...
For me it was kinda hard, because I don´t like the look of the skins. Only one I like is Gul'Dan, but I´m heading towards 1000 win Warlock portrait, which is the best imo, so I went with Rexxar, because I´m a Hunter main with many S/W decks, so I can have different skin for every deck now.
Gul'dan? Yuck, I'll put that one off for another 9 expansions :P Seriously though, it's good that different people like different ones as it would feel less significant if everyone picks the same one. I'm with @Alleria on my general thoughts though: there aren't many that I really like, and I prefer the less cartoon-y artwork of the basic portraits in most cases.
I personally went with Valeera because I'm a rogue main and am probably biased so thought she looked the best anyway. She also has the advantage that she is a lot more unique than many options when compared to alternative portraits of the same characters. That will likely continue when she eventually gets her Book of Heroes one and the Tavern Pass ones, especially with regards to the colour palette since red with green and gold details has always been her style (she is a proud blood elf after all) so she's unlikely to be going with black and orange again.
In the end though, there are no wrong choices, and even if you later decide you prefer another, it'll only be 4 months before you can choose it. (I'm assuming these will be around for 10 expansions.)
For once, Zyella, we are in agreement :) I was arguing for leaving the Custodian alone, and preferring leaving the Corsair to be handled in the Classic revamp (and even then I'm not arguing that strongly for it).
Right, but when there aren't normally so many valid options to target. In this case we have a genuine opportunity to minimise collateral damage, which still means hitting the Kuckles rather than the more widely used cards.
Yeah, a lot of shaman's problems in recent years have been down to a lack of win conditions. I have lost count of the number of times I have started building a shaman deck and stopped because there's no real pay-off. E.g. I can easily make a deck that will survive for ages, but I have no plan to win the game once I get there. I'm not sure where exactly the problem lies, but it means whenever a win condition does turn up the entire deck has be be built around it and there are no alternative routes to victory.
It's a shame, because I love the class on paper: overload makes for interesting mana management, and the hero power is really interesting (if not that powerful most of the time). And as a Jack-of-all-trades class it ought to let you build a deck for any broad archetype, but in practice the "master of none" part has become a bit too apt.
Cagematch Custodian is clearly a key part of it, but increasing its cost probably won't change very much since turns 1-4 are pretty passive anyway (unless they have Lightning Bloom). That would also hit the curve into Whack-A-Gnoll Hammer or other 3 mana weapons, seriously nerfing other decks which aren't a problem. Similarly, changing the Pillager would be hitting other decks.
The issue here is not really coming from any one card, but rather how we currently have a critical mass of cards with strong synergy with Boggspine Knuckles. It will likely resolve itself in April when several key pieces rotate out, and there is an argument for leaving things alone because of that. But people won't want the meta to be that stale for 3 months, and the only fair way to hit the deck is to hit a card that won't cause collateral damage elsewhere, which in this case probably means the Knuckles.
Here's a hot take: what if Dread Corsair was targeted? It has previously been a big part of rogue's dominance in RoS (which led to Preparation and Raiding Party getting nerfed), so it's clearly not as safe a card to be evergreen as it often feels. If there is indeed a Classic set overhaul coming up, I'd probably take the Corsair out then. It is probably too fair under normal circumstances to warrant a nerf though; it's not even used in most pirate decks for example, and few of those aren't also weapon-based.
That's a bit simplistic. The year up to DMF demonstrated that a 5-cost 2x Evolve attached to a decent weapon that makes Dread Corsair cost 0 and can be played 4 times in a game is fine, AND that was even with a 9 mana minion that can be played for almost nothing. It needed a tutor and another board flood in Pit Master before it became a problem.
Doom in the Tomb showed us Evolve is OP at 1 mana when cards like Desert Hare exist (it is no coincidence Evolve Shaman was only strong back in the day thanks to Doppelgangster, which is basically just a bigger version for evolve purposes), but it took a perfect storm of synergies for it to draw much attention at 5 mana.
If I had to guess, I'd say the bare effect (i.e. the Evolve card itself) should probably cost 3 to be completely fair, and 2 if you want to make clear it is a one of Shaman's strengths.
I think moving the Knuckles to 6 mana will have a bigger effect than you expect. That's 1 extra turn when they aren't doing anything significant and you can either draw answers or develop the board, as well as giving you 1 extra mana to spend when responding to their first few waves. That helps out all decks, even if it won't make the difference every game.
Reducing its attack would certainly help too, though it isn't very helpful for decks that usually lose to the sudden massive board rather than the chip damage from the weapon. Then again, as Pezman said, not reducing the pirate to 0 mana is a big deal.
Thankfully Desert Hare, Mogu Fleshshaper and Hoard Pillager all rotate in a few months, so they only need to hit the deck hard enough to make it tolerable for a while.
I actually have 5 accounts, of which 1 is my main account. The single purpose of all the other accounts are just for getting me the extra challenge a friend quests and always get rerolled otherwise. Thus, the rough estimate I mentioned earlier is a real weighted amount, although indeed a bit on the higher side coz my main account does not care about these rerolls that much. 200 rerolls should be a better estimate, my bad. I must admit that with such a low occurrence probability, I wonder if having this many dummy accounts even warrants the daily quadruple logins.
Btw, I have been keeping a spreadsheet with quest occurrences and before the reward track got introduced, the other F2P accounts would net me 40 times the 80 gold quest each year (32 free packs). So, this means each account would give me about 65 gold each month. My prelimary conclusion is that they must have lowered the probability even further.
With 4 accounts dedicated to farming the Challenge a Friend quest, and level 125 already, you are certainly a pro at gathering gold.
I recall you have an impressive stockpile of dust too, and that you dislike spending it "in a significant way". Have you tried spending it on something practically useless like maintaining a few swag-tastic, all-golden decks? That's how I keep my dust reserves from climbing too quickly. Valeera's been burgling, pirating and one-upping High Justice Grimstone for years!
How many of you have gotten the Challenge a friend. You both earn a reward! 1500 XP quest already? I have several F2P accounts and still no sight of this particular quest. I'm probably biased, but I have a gut feeling the drop rate of this quest is much lower than the others.
It was always quite rare. That might just be down to it being a unique quest in a large pool with a lot of similar looking quests that only feel common because you group them together. E.g. the 'Play 3 games class X, Y or Z' quests come up all the time, but how many times have you seen "Play 3 games with Hunter, Mage and Warlock' specifically? (I know those quests actually are down-weighted, but only by so much that we occasionally see other ones.)
Still, with a pool of 66 daily quests (datamined) and me having multiple accounts which means a total of approximately 250+ possible rerolls, one might think a single appearance would be likely to have happened already at least once for me.
Of course, always getting lower XP daily quests from the higher XP quests does not help either. Their excuse for this implementation of receiving easier quests is simply ridiculous. It is obviously meant to reduce the chances for getting the more unique daily quests.
A quick test: assuming 66 equally weighted quests and 250 attempts to find a single one, the probability of not seeing it once is (1-(1/66))^250 = 2.2%. That is indeed unlikely.
250 attempts sounds like a really high estimate though. We've has the system since the 12th of November, so ~38 days. Let's be generous and call it 40 since we had 3 dailies on day 1. If you have 3 accounts, that's a max of 3*2*40 = 240 quests seen, though I doubt you have been rerolling all of them. If you reroll half of the time, that gives 180 instead. That doesn't stop it being unlikely (you end up at 6.4%), but it's helpful to be precise when making these sorts of arguments.
As for whether their their justification of making high XP quests reroll into low XP quests is ridiculous (does it still do this? I haven't tested since the new system arrived), I kind of agree with them on this to be honest. It's easy for players who play a lot to forget that many players don't devote much time to the game and might just want to be able to clear a quest asap. In fact it is generally quite easy to forget many players think differently to you, even when you're playing against Big Priest and asking your screen "who even likes that deck?!" :P
How many of you have gotten the Challenge a friend. You both earn a reward! 1500 XP quest already? I have several F2P accounts and still no sight of this particular quest. I'm probably biased, but I have a gut feeling the drop rate of this quest is much lower than the others.
It was always quite rare. That might just be down to it being a unique quest in a large pool with a lot of similar looking quests that only feel common because you group them together. E.g. the 'Play 3 games class X, Y or Z' quests come up all the time, but how many times have you seen "Play 3 games with Hunter, Mage and Warlock' specifically? (I know those quests actually are down-weighted, but only by so much that we occasionally see other ones.)
The new formats must also fulfill that one corporate criteria of generating profit. Duels fulfilled it via paywall and heroics mode, and so it follows that if a new format must be introduced at all, I'm sure it must go the same route; either paywalling certain features, or present a tacit requirement for players to spend some* money to have fun in it.
I personally like the idea of a rotating 'limited wild' system, with the cards available for this format to change with every expansion. Will certainly be easier to balance, and will allow us to play with decks from previous metas. It wouldn't even take team5 that much to make it happen. But I hold little hope of seeing this ever coming through. Unless there's some pass you have to buy (either in gold or real money) every expansion to play this mode, I just can't see this design document ever getting past management approval.
I would have thought it would help monetise Wild all by itself, at least enough to cover the small cost of implementing it (they don't need to do anything at all to support it beyond choosing new sets every so often). It would actually push people to buy Wild packs, whereas at the moment most Wild players already have what they need for the slowly changing meta and only buy Standard packs.
It would certainly push wild pack sales if this was implemented, but there will come a time when nearly all serious players would already have all the wild cards they need and then the sales will come crashing to a halt, which will ironically come faster than we think because of the duplicate protection. That's probably why it hasn't been implemented yet, despite the fact that it wouldn't even come to close to the resources needed to implement the duels mode.
There needs to be a monetization system for this mode that is equal if not surpassing that of duels for this to ever be a realistic consideration. Sadly that's the kind of world we live in with activision-blizz
As it stands, HS is failing to tap into the advantages of digital games being able to sell old packs to new players, and it cannot be that hard to convince the accounting department with the prospect of a permanent trickle of income from the entire history of the game for a low initial cost of setting it up.
Yeah I remembered that. That was what led me to believe that the incoming new format was going to be exactly a rotating wild mode. Then reality hit and we got duels instead, which incidentally enough, also came with the idea of a rotating set. Maybe the stars will align and limited wild gets considered in some distant future. But its becoming clear from battlegrounds and now duels, that unless a strong and subtle monetary system can be jammed, crying and screaming, right into it, I'm not optimistic.
I am hoping that the new game mode penned in for the DMF block is the simple rotating Wild format. It's proximity to the release of Duels makes it unlikely to be something that requires a lot of effort to implement, and more likely to be something they could sort out quickly. (These are the same devs that took forever to do the obvious and give us a scroll bar for extra deck slots, so 'quickly' is a relative term.)
This. Or, find a way to move him into a class so he's not gone completely, but priest can't continue to abuse him.
Here is a series of choices that could be believable (even if it's exceedingly unlikely):
Job done. Now, about Raza...
I have always like how Hearthstone plays around with Warcraft lore, and is just canonical enough to be believable even when it is doing the ridiculous. In my own head-canon the Book of Heroes plays out like a big therapy session in the Tavern, with the 10 of them sitting in a circle letting it all out :P
Anyway, my response was originally going to be Valeera protesting that rogue is the true go-to class, but the wiser part of me knew that would be a ridiculous claim when there are 3 classes for whom random value generation is a core part of their identity. So instead I just kept writing as I imagined it playing out if Valeera had actually made such a challenge, which ended up a lot more fun.
I'm not sure de-sexualisation is really the same thing as "cartoonization", and certainly it feels more like a response to modern western ideals than censorship for China. Hiding skeletons on the other hand...
Anyway, none of that has anything to do with which Arthas skin we got. That is a simple matter of representing the Paladin class with a Paladin and not a Death Knight. They can break class boundaries if they end up at a kind of non-class, e.g. N'Zoth isn't anything, and Maiev is a warden which is kind of a rogue but not really. But breaking class boundaries by using another playable class (in WoW) is a no-go.
Since they added DH I wouldn't be surprised if we got the DK class one day, but I don't think this is any sort of hint towards it. After all, it would be pretty tough to tell Uther's story without including his death at the hands of Arthas. Nevertheless, when DK does eventually arrive, and inevitably has Arthas/Lich King as the basic hero, I'm sure his Book of Heroes will involve that fight.
I have been curious for a while how they will handle The Lich King since they went out of their way to replace Illidan's card with Xavius, making it clear they don't want the basic heroes to have minion cards too. I guess they could choose a different character to be the basic hero, but that would feel as wrong as not using Illidan for DH.
I'll tell you what I would consider a hint at an 11th class though: if we (finally) go to Pandaria, have a bunch of Shado-Pan cards, but there is no sign of Taran Zhu. That would scream "monks are coming eventually and we are saving him for that".
The comparison with Apexis Blast (AB) is not as simple as you make it sound. When used for removal, AB has a strictly worse primary effect, and whether a random 5-drop on board is better than 2 known minions in hand is debatable. It is better for tempo, sure, but priest doesn't usually need to play for tempo.
On the assumption a spell priest would play to priest's strengths and grind out long games (instead of just trying to mimic spell hunter and have every spell summon minions, which always feels like it undermines the whole concept of the deck), Shattered Memory would normally be more useful than AB since a lonely 5-drop on board isn't going to achieve much anyway.
There is a fundamental point here: bad tempo does not equate to a bad card. The only reason it has felt that way for a while is because aggro has been pushed really hard in the Year of the Phoenix, but that was not always the case and will not always be the case in the future either.
I may have taken this question a little too literally...
Valeera's glowing eyes peer out of a dark corner of the Tavern, fixing an intense glare on Jaina. "So it's a random-off you want is it, mage?"
Everyone else groans as they return to their own games. All except Anduin that is, who eagerly watches to learn from his 'aunt'/advisor (Jaina) and bodyguard/spy/messenger/adopted sister/most trusted friend (Valeera). "Wow" he says, "that's really impressive Jaina! Where are you getting those cards from?"
She conjures a small portal and matter-of-factly answers with "thin air".
He turns his head to ask the same of Valeera, who gives the same answer with a sheepish glance at the adjacent table. An answer which she insists upon when Uther storms over calling for justice after his Tirion Fordring vanished from the board during his own game against Garrosh (who, being the good sport that he is, just laughed and pressed his attack).
At the end of the game, all 3 of them are wearing ridiculous smiles, and it doesn't matter that the winning card was the last in a line of 5 cards created out of 'thin air'. But the dark shadow of Illidan looms over them and snarls "Children, the lot of you. Let me show you how to play this game."
"Very well," replies Jaina with a wink to Anduin, "but I must warn you: you are not prepared for what I have up my sleeve."
Vacating her seat, Valeera slinks back to her corner, taking the scenic route past Uther's back pocket on the way.
Time Rip is a perfectly fine card (not stellar, but far from unplayable), and when satisfying the condition Shattered Memory would be better in both quality and quantity of minion generated. So it seems quite reasonable to me.
The Arthas portrait IS available in game. 'Just' beat the Lich King in the Knights of the Frozen Throne adventure with all 9 original classes. I assume you can still do this. Unless you want his portrait from the final encounter, but that's definitely not happening until Death Knight becomes a playable class.
As for a male rogue hero: well there should be a new rogue hero coming soon (TM). It's been a long time since they teased one was planned, and unless they plan these several years in advance it can't be far off now. Who knows whether it will be male though?
I'm hoping we get Bluther for the 3rd portrait when it his turn in the Tavern Pass. Kul Tiran Jaina showed those can depict a much more recent version of the character than the end-of-MoP basic portraits, and let's be honest, Uther hasn't got many looks to choose from...
Gul'dan? Yuck, I'll put that one off for another 9 expansions :P Seriously though, it's good that different people like different ones as it would feel less significant if everyone picks the same one. I'm with @Alleria on my general thoughts though: there aren't many that I really like, and I prefer the less cartoon-y artwork of the basic portraits in most cases.
I personally went with Valeera because I'm a rogue main and am probably biased so thought she looked the best anyway. She also has the advantage that she is a lot more unique than many options when compared to alternative portraits of the same characters. That will likely continue when she eventually gets her Book of Heroes one and the Tavern Pass ones, especially with regards to the colour palette since red with green and gold details has always been her style (she is a proud blood elf after all) so she's unlikely to be going with black and orange again.
In the end though, there are no wrong choices, and even if you later decide you prefer another, it'll only be 4 months before you can choose it. (I'm assuming these will be around for 10 expansions.)
For once, Zyella, we are in agreement :) I was arguing for leaving the Custodian alone, and preferring leaving the Corsair to be handled in the Classic revamp (and even then I'm not arguing that strongly for it).
Right, but when there aren't normally so many valid options to target. In this case we have a genuine opportunity to minimise collateral damage, which still means hitting the Kuckles rather than the more widely used cards.
Yeah, a lot of shaman's problems in recent years have been down to a lack of win conditions. I have lost count of the number of times I have started building a shaman deck and stopped because there's no real pay-off. E.g. I can easily make a deck that will survive for ages, but I have no plan to win the game once I get there. I'm not sure where exactly the problem lies, but it means whenever a win condition does turn up the entire deck has be be built around it and there are no alternative routes to victory.
It's a shame, because I love the class on paper: overload makes for interesting mana management, and the hero power is really interesting (if not that powerful most of the time). And as a Jack-of-all-trades class it ought to let you build a deck for any broad archetype, but in practice the "master of none" part has become a bit too apt.
Cagematch Custodian is clearly a key part of it, but increasing its cost probably won't change very much since turns 1-4 are pretty passive anyway (unless they have Lightning Bloom). That would also hit the curve into Whack-A-Gnoll Hammer or other 3 mana weapons, seriously nerfing other decks which aren't a problem. Similarly, changing the Pillager would be hitting other decks.
The issue here is not really coming from any one card, but rather how we currently have a critical mass of cards with strong synergy with Boggspine Knuckles. It will likely resolve itself in April when several key pieces rotate out, and there is an argument for leaving things alone because of that. But people won't want the meta to be that stale for 3 months, and the only fair way to hit the deck is to hit a card that won't cause collateral damage elsewhere, which in this case probably means the Knuckles.
Here's a hot take: what if Dread Corsair was targeted? It has previously been a big part of rogue's dominance in RoS (which led to Preparation and Raiding Party getting nerfed), so it's clearly not as safe a card to be evergreen as it often feels. If there is indeed a Classic set overhaul coming up, I'd probably take the Corsair out then. It is probably too fair under normal circumstances to warrant a nerf though; it's not even used in most pirate decks for example, and few of those aren't also weapon-based.
That's a bit simplistic. The year up to DMF demonstrated that a 5-cost 2x Evolve attached to a decent weapon that makes Dread Corsair cost 0 and can be played 4 times in a game is fine, AND that was even with a 9 mana minion that can be played for almost nothing. It needed a tutor and another board flood in Pit Master before it became a problem.
Doom in the Tomb showed us Evolve is OP at 1 mana when cards like Desert Hare exist (it is no coincidence Evolve Shaman was only strong back in the day thanks to Doppelgangster, which is basically just a bigger version for evolve purposes), but it took a perfect storm of synergies for it to draw much attention at 5 mana.
If I had to guess, I'd say the bare effect (i.e. the Evolve card itself) should probably cost 3 to be completely fair, and 2 if you want to make clear it is a one of Shaman's strengths.
I think moving the Knuckles to 6 mana will have a bigger effect than you expect. That's 1 extra turn when they aren't doing anything significant and you can either draw answers or develop the board, as well as giving you 1 extra mana to spend when responding to their first few waves. That helps out all decks, even if it won't make the difference every game.
Reducing its attack would certainly help too, though it isn't very helpful for decks that usually lose to the sudden massive board rather than the chip damage from the weapon. Then again, as Pezman said, not reducing the pirate to 0 mana is a big deal.
Thankfully Desert Hare, Mogu Fleshshaper and Hoard Pillager all rotate in a few months, so they only need to hit the deck hard enough to make it tolerable for a while.
With 4 accounts dedicated to farming the Challenge a Friend quest, and level 125 already, you are certainly a pro at gathering gold.
I recall you have an impressive stockpile of dust too, and that you dislike spending it "in a significant way". Have you tried spending it on something practically useless like maintaining a few swag-tastic, all-golden decks? That's how I keep my dust reserves from climbing too quickly. Valeera's been burgling, pirating and one-upping High Justice Grimstone for years!
A quick test: assuming 66 equally weighted quests and 250 attempts to find a single one, the probability of not seeing it once is (1-(1/66))^250 = 2.2%. That is indeed unlikely.
250 attempts sounds like a really high estimate though. We've has the system since the 12th of November, so ~38 days. Let's be generous and call it 40 since we had 3 dailies on day 1. If you have 3 accounts, that's a max of 3*2*40 = 240 quests seen, though I doubt you have been rerolling all of them. If you reroll half of the time, that gives 180 instead. That doesn't stop it being unlikely (you end up at 6.4%), but it's helpful to be precise when making these sorts of arguments.
As for whether their their justification of making high XP quests reroll into low XP quests is ridiculous (does it still do this? I haven't tested since the new system arrived), I kind of agree with them on this to be honest. It's easy for players who play a lot to forget that many players don't devote much time to the game and might just want to be able to clear a quest asap. In fact it is generally quite easy to forget many players think differently to you, even when you're playing against Big Priest and asking your screen "who even likes that deck?!" :P
It was always quite rare. That might just be down to it being a unique quest in a large pool with a lot of similar looking quests that only feel common because you group them together. E.g. the 'Play 3 games class X, Y or Z' quests come up all the time, but how many times have you seen "Play 3 games with Hunter, Mage and Warlock' specifically? (I know those quests actually are down-weighted, but only by so much that we occasionally see other ones.)
I am hoping that the new game mode penned in for the DMF block is the simple rotating Wild format. It's proximity to the release of Duels makes it unlikely to be something that requires a lot of effort to implement, and more likely to be something they could sort out quickly. (These are the same devs that took forever to do the obvious and give us a scroll bar for extra deck slots, so 'quickly' is a relative term.)