MANA COMPENDIVM

Hello dudes,
I would like to start this thread with the purpose of finding a scientific explanation on how cards "Balance" is done in Hearthstone.

I will start with some example of inexplicable cards, I'll take in consideration their cost and stats to compare each others.

1° Example

Cost: 4
Stats: 4/6 (10) = +1 EV - Taunt

Cost: 5
Stats: 10/12 (22) = +6 EV - Taunt

In this case, Dragon's Pack starts from a +5 EV from the average +1 EV of Saronite Chain Gang, but requires a condition to be played with buff as a double 5/6.

The question is: is it worth of a (5*) mana discount ?
The answer is: "I don't think so".

We can compare it to Scion of Ruin
Cost: 3
Stats: 9/6 (15) = +4,5 EV - Rush.

Seems fair enough?, but it's not. Because Scion of Ruin has minus 1,5 EV compared to Dragon's Pack. Which means that Dragon's Pack should get at least his cost increased by (1*) mana, or the buff decreased from +3/+3 to +2/+2

Anyway, the major problem is that only few classes can afford such big tempo plays. And as it seems, the real problem with either these two cards is the General Balance of the game.

More examples to come... Do you have some good one to explain? :)

What does EV mean?

Seems an interesting take on things. I do think EV on dragons pack is 1 too much. Thoughts 

I'm not sure you can do this kind of "analytics" with the methodology you briefly describe. Mainly because cards aren't created in a vacuum and the stronger cards tend to be highly synergistic with strong decks and/or in relations to standing/future "counter-cards", regardless of their overall "face strength".

To use your example:

Dragon's Pack is a spell, so can be stopped entirely by Counterspell. Scion of Ruin has no such "total" counter.

Additionally, Scion being a dragon means you have an innate tribal synergy (think of all the "if you're holding a dragon" cards or War Master Voone for examples) that you don't account for in your "EV." Also, Dragon Pack synergizes with the Evoke mechanic ONLY, whereas Scion can also synergize with the playing of Galakrond itself - i.e. be drawn/given +4/+4 so then you get three 7/6s with rush for 3 mana.

So to say that the Pack is "1.5 EV stronger" is based on an incomplete methodology.

Quote From KANSAS

What does EV mean?

EV stands for Effort Values. They are the values of the body + effects / cost. Each point of DAMAGE and  HEALTH has a value of 0,5 EV. Effects values depends from different circumstances such as conditions, targets, downsides, etc. Common ones such as Taunt and Discover are always between 0,5-1 EV.

You can set the EV by doing the Vanilla Test:
If the average value of the stats of the card match or exceed the cost, it passes the vanilla test.

For Example: A card that is 3/3 and cost (3*) passes the vanilla test with +0 EV. For the same mana cost, a card that is 3/4 passes the vanilla test as well, but with + 0,5 EV. Lastly, a 4/4 that also cost (3*), has + 1 EV.

Quote From ArngrimUndying

I'm not sure you can do this kind of "analytics" with the methodology you briefly describe. Mainly because cards aren't created in a vacuum and the stronger cards tend to be highly synergistic with strong decks and/or in relations to standing/future "counter-cards", regardless of their overall "face strength".

To use your example:

Dragon's Pack is a spell, so can be stopped entirely by Counterspell. Scion of Ruin has no such "total" counter.

Additionally, Scion being a dragon means you have an innate tribal synergy (think of all the "if you're holding a dragon" cards or War Master Voone for examples) that you don't account for in your "EV." Also, Dragon Pack synergizes with the Evoke mechanic ONLY, whereas Scion can also synergize with the playing of Galakrond itself - i.e. be drawn/given +4/+4 so then you get three 7/6s with rush for 3 mana.

So to say that the Pack is "1.5 EV stronger" is based on an incomplete methodology.

You're right, but I'm considering the cards as standalones. I'm not taking in consideration synergies or counters.

I've compared 2 cards with the same condition to make a comparasion of their "vanilla" value. I would like to put the focus on the card itself and not on the possible interaction between other cards.

Quote From Rippy

Quote From ArngrimUndying

I'm not sure you can do this kind of "analytics" with the methodology you briefly describe. Mainly because cards aren't created in a vacuum and the stronger cards tend to be highly synergistic with strong decks and/or in relations to standing/future "counter-cards", regardless of their overall "face strength".

To use your example:

Dragon's Pack is a spell, so can be stopped entirely by Counterspell. Scion of Ruin has no such "total" counter.

Additionally, Scion being a dragon means you have an innate tribal synergy (think of all the "if you're holding a dragon" cards or War Master Voone for examples) that you don't account for in your "EV." Also, Dragon Pack synergizes with the Evoke mechanic ONLY, whereas Scion can also synergize with the playing of Galakrond itself - i.e. be drawn/given +4/+4 so then you get three 7/6s with rush for 3 mana.

So to say that the Pack is "1.5 EV stronger" is based on an incomplete methodology.

You're right, but I'm considering the cards as standalones. I'm not taking in consideration synergies or counters.

I've compared 2 cards with the same condition to make a comparasion of their "vanilla" value. I would like to put the focus on the card itself and not on the possible interaction between other cards.

That was his point though. If you're doing that, you're completely ignoring important aspects of the card.

Quote From RandomGuy

Quote From Rippy

Quote From ArngrimUndying

I'm not sure you can do this kind of "analytics" with the methodology you briefly describe. Mainly because cards aren't created in a vacuum and the stronger cards tend to be highly synergistic with strong decks and/or in relations to standing/future "counter-cards", regardless of their overall "face strength".

To use your example:

Dragon's Pack is a spell, so can be stopped entirely by Counterspell. Scion of Ruin has no such "total" counter.

Additionally, Scion being a dragon means you have an innate tribal synergy (think of all the "if you're holding a dragon" cards or War Master Voone for examples) that you don't account for in your "EV." Also, Dragon Pack synergizes with the Evoke mechanic ONLY, whereas Scion can also synergize with the playing of Galakrond itself - i.e. be drawn/given +4/+4 so then you get three 7/6s with rush for 3 mana.

So to say that the Pack is "1.5 EV stronger" is based on an incomplete methodology.

You're right, but I'm considering the cards as standalones. I'm not taking in consideration synergies or counters.

I've compared 2 cards with the same condition to make a comparasion of their "vanilla" value. I would like to put the focus on the card itself and not on the possible interaction between other cards.

That was his point though. If you're doing that, you're completely ignoring important aspects of the card.

 

This is correct that was exactly my point: this is a card game - it is virtually impossible to correctly measure the strength of the cards in a vacuum of stats (which you aren't even doing in its entirety if you're ignoring things like Tribe - there's more to the "vacuum face value" of a card than cost/attack/hp).

Even your example with Saronite vs Pack isn't entirely apt because powercreep/"inflation" is a real, if not entirely measurable, force. How many jokes are there each expansion about "X card [from 5 expansions ago] cries in a corner"? AT THE TIME Sarnoite was printed it may well have been "EV"-good; it's only in a relative comparison to a new card that it looks "worse."

So in typing that last paragraph it occurred to me that maybe that might the thing you could do with this idea - try to compare old vs new cards to see if you can "measure" powercreep? Otherwise you will be chasing your tail forever given how many of the "strongest" cards aren't that way because of their face stats, but how they interact with other conditions/cards (hello there, Mogu Fleshshaper!)

Quote From KANSAS

What does EV mean?

Quote From Rippy

Quote From ArngrimUndying

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I'm not sure you can do this kind of "analytics" with the methodology you briefly describe. Mainly because cards aren't created in a vacuum and the stronger cards tend to be highly synergistic with strong decks and/or in relations to standing/future "counter-cards", regardless of their overall "face strength".

To use your example:

Dragon's Pack is a spell, so can be stopped entirely by Counterspell. Scion of Ruin has no such "total" counter.

Additionally, Scion being a dragon means you have an innate tribal synergy (think of all the "if you're holding a dragon" cards or War Master Voone for examples) that you don't account for in your "EV." Also, Dragon Pack synergizes with the Evoke mechanic ONLY, whereas Scion can also synergize with the playing of Galakrond itself - i.e. be drawn/given +4/+4 so then you get three 7/6s with rush for 3 mana.

So to say that the Pack is "1.5 EV stronger" is based on an incomplete methodology.

You're right, but I'm considering the cards as standalones. I'm not taking in consideration synergies or counters.

I've compared 2 cards with the same condition to make a comparasion of their "vanilla" value. I would like to put the focus on the card itself and not on the possible interaction between other cards.

If you're comparing their "vanilla" value, Dragon's Pack costs (1) more than Saronite Chain Gang for the same stats, and is clearly the worse card.

You can't consider the Invoke cards for Dragon's Pack and not the myriad synergies for the other cards; I'm sure you'll still find that Dragon's Pack is overtuned, but it's a disingenuous comparison as it stands.

Even just between Dragon's Pack and Scion of Ruin, you have to consider the other variables surrounding them - cards in a vacuum mean nothing. Dragon's Pack is in the class with the strongest Invoke effect and Invokers, but Scion of Ruin gives you Dragon synergies, Handbuff synergies, Rush synergies etc. Even just Rush vs Taunt is important.