Without Deck of Lunacy the deck literally dies to anything that plays minions on curve because there's only so much you can clear from the board before you run out of stuff. I would be surprised if anyone would try mulliganing for DoL that's only playable at turn 4 and would require you to skip that turn while playing it.
I think after two weeks of playing I've only ever died to lunacy mage that played no DoL once, and considering that at least 30% of the meta is playing it that really says something. I don't think the deck can survive a tempo matchup trying to play a 4 mana do nothing card.
I think you're underestimating what a 2 mana nerf can really do in a tempo based meta. The only way lunacy mage still dominates is that the entire meta is made of decks that literally plays nothing for the first 3 turns and you mulligan exactly for Deck of Lunacy.
No minion mage is effective, but far from being a tier 1 deck. Without DoL its incredibly linear, and even if Font of Power fetches them the literal nuts, what are they really doing for the first 4 turns? Jandice is nerfed too, so that's another turn 5 play gone.
From my own experience, the only time lunacy mage is a proper tier 1 deck is when they play DoL on turn 2-3, or turn 4 followed by incredible draw engine. With this nerf, the only deck it can really snowball to death would be a deck that plays only tempo with no buffs, have no burn plans, and cannot effectively clear boards. In other words, the only deck it can reliably beat are meme and combo decks. That's hardly anything to cry about.
I really like to agree with you on the watchpost, in that the nerfs are kinda harsh. But honestly, I think the change was necessary.
Because these watchposts has attack values, dealing with them will almost always put you behind on tempo and the effect is disruptive enough that it basically shuts down decks according to watchposts and archetype, like how control warlock has a 0 percent chance of countering a Far Watch Post without any minions. It's not entirely true that these can be ignored either; it puts some decks on a great disadvantage. Control decks are often one mana away from wiping the board, hence why Cult Neophyte continues to see play.
That said, I still think team5 has pre-empted the nerf on Mor'shan Watch Post, because in my opinion only far watch post should be nerfed.
I think its still playable, but perhaps only in dhunters and rogue decks, as these are perhaps the only classes that can easily deal with tempo and keep those posts running as long as possible.
Some of these nerfs are fairly predictable, but I really did not think they would nerf the watchposts honestly.
The change to Deck of Lunacy and Sword of the Fallen were expected, as these are high win rate cards. While I think we'll still be seeing lunacy mage in some form, it would likely no longer be a viable competitive deck since you can no longer mulligan your whole hand for this card without suffering some repercussion. As for SotF, its still a good card and will still play its role, its just a little weaker. There's a definite zero chance for this card to get axed from decks with secrets in it, given how much paladin needs the draw.
The pen throwing bastard is down, but not out. In fact, I'm having trouble imagining this card getting axed in any deck but aggro. Its still going to do what it usually does, which is to kill boards. Its definitely still going to be included into paladin decks, all it does is to ensure that paladin's game plan is now 100% board, with only Libram of Judgment being the sole viable burst damage option. Its likely still going to be in rogue decks, because octobot is still here, and rogue can now drop some of the watchposts post-nerf.
So what's going to change? Watchpost rogue is likely gone, and in fact I think Far Watch Post is now so easily removed it'll likely be nothing more than an annoyance rather than a genuine threat. In its place I expect the new Alex combo version to come in. Libram pally might shift things up a bit, since lunacy mage is no longer a threat, but will still likely be the no.1 deck. With lunacy mage finally gone at last, we can expect to see more board based tech choices like ooze, Death's Head Cultist, and mage itself would likely experiment with either burn or ping mage.
Expect some bump for warrior, with priest likely to take its place in the bottom of the tier list. I still expect to see paladin, mage, rogue, and hunter battle it out for top 3.
Ive watched some videos on the alpha build and aside from some of the interface looking bizarrely worse than the originals, it has largely been revamped graphically so its not going to be another reforged bs incident. There are some reports of bugs, but this is an alpha so I hope blizz retains enough of their honor to not screw this up on launch.
Im definitely looking forward to it, having spent many hours in the original d2. The worts and all remake is okay as a concept, but I really hope they add in a few surprises along, like better animations. One thing definitely on my wishlist is that they do something about the attack speed tied to no. of frames rubbish in the original d2 so when something reads 'faster attack speed' it actually means faster attack speed.
Stealth rogue is actually still viable, and is perhaps one of the few decks that doesn't really use any barrens cards. The probable hit to Pen Flinger may be enough to stop this, but I think once paladin gets nerfed and lunacy mage is gone, it'll make a comeback. We've seen team5 preemptively nerf cards before, so its just my prediction that they might look into cards like Self-Sharpening Sword at least.
I've not really read any posts saying that jandice and octobot would definitely be on the ropes for nerfs. It would surprise me if octobot is nerfed, given that its a fundamental card carrying the new rogue archetype, of which without we will definitely be seeing more weapon/stealth rogue.
I watched GM, and I'm not really seeing any game breaking bugs to be honest. A few examples would be nice, maybe its the youtube drops bs that's still hanging in my mind so I missed it.
Thanks for clarifying. But I think team5 does try to avoid complicating the esports scenes whenever they can, but with how the scheduling works, its understandably unavoidable at times.
Priest is definitely a sleeper. Its skill ceiling is very high and one bad play can instantly roll you over. I would almost certainly be going back into priest after the balance patch is out.
As for shaman. Well, I got to be honest, it sucks. Yes, shaman has a lot of good cards, but the crucial problem is the fact that they simply can't draw nor generate enough cards to ever keep up the tempo. I mean, even hunter who supposedly share the same class weakness of card generation and draw, are more than able to keep piling on the pressure and generate just enough options for the win. So what can shaman do? Play Doomhammer and pray your next two draws don't whiff.
Its actually funny how dhunters are supposed to be the class that suffers from board clears, but ironically with the deathrattle set they don't anymore and its instead shaman that fundamentally cannot come back from a board clear/swing.
It'll likely be announced either a day before or on the day the patch comes out itself. Team5 probably didn't expect lunacy mage to take center stage so all their earlier balancing plans (if indeed they have one) are necessarily thrown out the window, meaning they have to redo their testing, which will explain why they haven't revealed anything yet. I'd say its monday, after grandmasters week 1 is done.
The timing is crucial, since grandmasters is still going on and even pros need time to practice to get their deck selection right, particularly since next week if Im not mistaken is last deck standing format.
But if the goal is to make changes so we see more new cards, I'd expect librams, stealth rogue, and the notoriously hated Pen Flinger to take a hit, aside from Deck of Lunacy itself. As much as the some in the community piles the hate on secret pally, watchposts, and 'draw your entire deck' rogue, its hard to deny that these are lists that largely uses the new cards, so its probably not in team5's radar for now.
Terms and conditions reads that the drops will be in within 48 hours.
But the fact that twitch has recently upgraded the ways drops work, and that even before this update we can actually get our packs immediately, shows how far they are compared to the cro-magnon that is youtube streaming.
I've watched the video a few months ago but honestly, this is one thing that apparently has been keeping on a low profile until yesterday when I saw it resurface itself in Blizz's hearthstone twitter. I do mean low profile; I literally can't find anything else other than Rini's statement on it and the usual community outrage for stuff like this has been surprisingly small. Apparently Zalae has been keeping himself from commenting on the subject, even though Rini left plenty of space and time for him to come out and deny or at least put out his version of the events.
In any case, the fact that blizz has opted to only suspend him means that they don't actually even know what is going on and the decision was forced upon them since behaviors like these are (rightfully) intolerable in what is supposedly a modern human society.
Just speculating; I'd expect Zalae himself to either retire (because let's be honest why hasn't he) or get himself unceremoniously booted out of grandmasters because there's absolutely no way blizz can leave this hanging. Knowing him, its unlikely he'll ever come out and explain what really happened because whatever he says is unlikely to change anything and would likely even get worse.
Yep, sadly we'll have to wait a long, long week until Blizzard nerfs it. The lineups for GM are also very funny: out of 48 players, 47 brought mage and 46 brought paladin. The only player to bring neither class is Fled.
I'm actually looking forward to it, because I'm absolutely certain that paladin's win rate in grandmasters will be actually less impressive than what we tend to believe it should be.
Pretty sure the whole lineup in grandmasters is actually targetting mage. Plenty of aggro decks, at least in asia.
With the exception of an early Combustion, you spend the first six turns doing very little to interact with your opponent's board. Take your turn 5, for example, when you could easily have used your Fireball to take out one of your opponent's minions, but you dropped a Trick Totem instead. That right there was 4 damage you didn't have to take. And that would have set you up to Apexis Blast their remaining buffed taunt, which also has about a 27.7% chance of getting you something to further deal with the board (18.5% taunts, 9.2% rush minions)
I think the reason why he played trick totem on turn 5 was because he wanted to hp that 4/1 frog, which left him with 3 mana.
On the subject, the only real misplay here would be turn 4 Deck of Lunacy. I really would have either font to look for options first, or just fireball the 2/3 if the minions cant be played.
After playing through Rokara's book, I completely believe that Guff issued funeral rites to a patch of grass. Pretty sure you can make him a villain simply by telling him who the 'bad guys' are.
But why is it fair for "aggro" decks to ALWAYS be strong in metas, but the one time a no-minion control mage deck gets popular everyone cries for nerfs?
Just to address this one point, if there is a reason why aggro decks are currently doing well is ironically because of lunacy mage, which stomps on every midrange deck except for paladin. To beat this deck, the general rule is to have an early tempo lead, followed by a late burst finish, and that's exactly what every deck except for paladin is doing right now.
Its not really that there aren't any anti aggro tools around; Death's Head Cultist, Gold Road Grunt, and Mor'shan Watch Post. Its just that all of them suck vs lunacy mage, and that's what the meta is currently populated with. As the meta shapes up after the nerfs I'd be expecting more tempo oriented decks, instead of the usual burst damage ones, especially since we're almost certain that something will be done to either Pen Flinger or weapon rogue in general.
The changes are probably hitting stealth rogue since its basically the old version from scholomance and team5 already said many times they prefer things to move on.
I doubt the watchposts would be hit at all. All three play specific functions. Its no coincidence that we're seeing more Far Watch Post now since mage can't really destroy this thing outside of Devolving Missiles, which they don't mulligan for anyway. After the nerf, I'd expect Mor'shan Watch Post to be more prominent instead.
That paladin nerf is likely to be Sword of the Fallen, although I wouldn't be too surprised to see Libram of Hope upped 1 mana, or Aldor Attendant becoming a 2 drop again. To be honest, hitting the librams would be the smarter choice in my opinion.
Without Deck of Lunacy the deck literally dies to anything that plays minions on curve because there's only so much you can clear from the board before you run out of stuff. I would be surprised if anyone would try mulliganing for DoL that's only playable at turn 4 and would require you to skip that turn while playing it.
I think after two weeks of playing I've only ever died to lunacy mage that played no DoL once, and considering that at least 30% of the meta is playing it that really says something. I don't think the deck can survive a tempo matchup trying to play a 4 mana do nothing card.
I think you're underestimating what a 2 mana nerf can really do in a tempo based meta. The only way lunacy mage still dominates is that the entire meta is made of decks that literally plays nothing for the first 3 turns and you mulligan exactly for Deck of Lunacy.
No minion mage is effective, but far from being a tier 1 deck. Without DoL its incredibly linear, and even if Font of Power fetches them the literal nuts, what are they really doing for the first 4 turns? Jandice is nerfed too, so that's another turn 5 play gone.
From my own experience, the only time lunacy mage is a proper tier 1 deck is when they play DoL on turn 2-3, or turn 4 followed by incredible draw engine. With this nerf, the only deck it can really snowball to death would be a deck that plays only tempo with no buffs, have no burn plans, and cannot effectively clear boards. In other words, the only deck it can reliably beat are meme and combo decks. That's hardly anything to cry about.
Here's the link; https://playhearthstone.com/en-gb/news/23658923/20-0-2-patch-notes
"Fixed a bug where players could re-roll into the Win 5 Games of Ranked Play Mode weekly quest after already completing it that week."
A bug? This is no bug blizz. If it is, its made of chocolate and readily eaten by players.
Well, for those still hungry for that extra 750xp, better start rerolling today.
I really like to agree with you on the watchpost, in that the nerfs are kinda harsh. But honestly, I think the change was necessary.
Because these watchposts has attack values, dealing with them will almost always put you behind on tempo and the effect is disruptive enough that it basically shuts down decks according to watchposts and archetype, like how control warlock has a 0 percent chance of countering a Far Watch Post without any minions. It's not entirely true that these can be ignored either; it puts some decks on a great disadvantage. Control decks are often one mana away from wiping the board, hence why Cult Neophyte continues to see play.
That said, I still think team5 has pre-empted the nerf on Mor'shan Watch Post, because in my opinion only far watch post should be nerfed.
I think its still playable, but perhaps only in dhunters and rogue decks, as these are perhaps the only classes that can easily deal with tempo and keep those posts running as long as possible.
Some of these nerfs are fairly predictable, but I really did not think they would nerf the watchposts honestly.
The change to Deck of Lunacy and Sword of the Fallen were expected, as these are high win rate cards. While I think we'll still be seeing lunacy mage in some form, it would likely no longer be a viable competitive deck since you can no longer mulligan your whole hand for this card without suffering some repercussion. As for SotF, its still a good card and will still play its role, its just a little weaker. There's a definite zero chance for this card to get axed from decks with secrets in it, given how much paladin needs the draw.
The pen throwing bastard is down, but not out. In fact, I'm having trouble imagining this card getting axed in any deck but aggro. Its still going to do what it usually does, which is to kill boards. Its definitely still going to be included into paladin decks, all it does is to ensure that paladin's game plan is now 100% board, with only Libram of Judgment being the sole viable burst damage option. Its likely still going to be in rogue decks, because octobot is still here, and rogue can now drop some of the watchposts post-nerf.
So what's going to change? Watchpost rogue is likely gone, and in fact I think Far Watch Post is now so easily removed it'll likely be nothing more than an annoyance rather than a genuine threat. In its place I expect the new Alex combo version to come in. Libram pally might shift things up a bit, since lunacy mage is no longer a threat, but will still likely be the no.1 deck. With lunacy mage finally gone at last, we can expect to see more board based tech choices like ooze, Death's Head Cultist, and mage itself would likely experiment with either burn or ping mage.
Expect some bump for warrior, with priest likely to take its place in the bottom of the tier list. I still expect to see paladin, mage, rogue, and hunter battle it out for top 3.
Ive watched some videos on the alpha build and aside from some of the interface looking bizarrely worse than the originals, it has largely been revamped graphically so its not going to be another reforged bs incident. There are some reports of bugs, but this is an alpha so I hope blizz retains enough of their honor to not screw this up on launch.
Im definitely looking forward to it, having spent many hours in the original d2. The worts and all remake is okay as a concept, but I really hope they add in a few surprises along, like better animations. One thing definitely on my wishlist is that they do something about the attack speed tied to no. of frames rubbish in the original d2 so when something reads 'faster attack speed' it actually means faster attack speed.
Stealth rogue is actually still viable, and is perhaps one of the few decks that doesn't really use any barrens cards. The probable hit to Pen Flinger may be enough to stop this, but I think once paladin gets nerfed and lunacy mage is gone, it'll make a comeback. We've seen team5 preemptively nerf cards before, so its just my prediction that they might look into cards like Self-Sharpening Sword at least.
I've not really read any posts saying that jandice and octobot would definitely be on the ropes for nerfs. It would surprise me if octobot is nerfed, given that its a fundamental card carrying the new rogue archetype, of which without we will definitely be seeing more weapon/stealth rogue.
I watched GM, and I'm not really seeing any game breaking bugs to be honest. A few examples would be nice, maybe its the youtube drops bs that's still hanging in my mind so I missed it.
Thanks for clarifying. But I think team5 does try to avoid complicating the esports scenes whenever they can, but with how the scheduling works, its understandably unavoidable at times.
Priest is definitely a sleeper. Its skill ceiling is very high and one bad play can instantly roll you over. I would almost certainly be going back into priest after the balance patch is out.
As for shaman. Well, I got to be honest, it sucks. Yes, shaman has a lot of good cards, but the crucial problem is the fact that they simply can't draw nor generate enough cards to ever keep up the tempo. I mean, even hunter who supposedly share the same class weakness of card generation and draw, are more than able to keep piling on the pressure and generate just enough options for the win. So what can shaman do? Play Doomhammer and pray your next two draws don't whiff.
Its actually funny how dhunters are supposed to be the class that suffers from board clears, but ironically with the deathrattle set they don't anymore and its instead shaman that fundamentally cannot come back from a board clear/swing.
It'll likely be announced either a day before or on the day the patch comes out itself. Team5 probably didn't expect lunacy mage to take center stage so all their earlier balancing plans (if indeed they have one) are necessarily thrown out the window, meaning they have to redo their testing, which will explain why they haven't revealed anything yet. I'd say its monday, after grandmasters week 1 is done.
The timing is crucial, since grandmasters is still going on and even pros need time to practice to get their deck selection right, particularly since next week if Im not mistaken is last deck standing format.
But if the goal is to make changes so we see more new cards, I'd expect librams, stealth rogue, and the notoriously hated Pen Flinger to take a hit, aside from Deck of Lunacy itself. As much as the some in the community piles the hate on secret pally, watchposts, and 'draw your entire deck' rogue, its hard to deny that these are lists that largely uses the new cards, so its probably not in team5's radar for now.
Terms and conditions reads that the drops will be in within 48 hours.
But the fact that twitch has recently upgraded the ways drops work, and that even before this update we can actually get our packs immediately, shows how far they are compared to the cro-magnon that is youtube streaming.
I've watched the video a few months ago but honestly, this is one thing that apparently has been keeping on a low profile until yesterday when I saw it resurface itself in Blizz's hearthstone twitter. I do mean low profile; I literally can't find anything else other than Rini's statement on it and the usual community outrage for stuff like this has been surprisingly small. Apparently Zalae has been keeping himself from commenting on the subject, even though Rini left plenty of space and time for him to come out and deny or at least put out his version of the events.
In any case, the fact that blizz has opted to only suspend him means that they don't actually even know what is going on and the decision was forced upon them since behaviors like these are (rightfully) intolerable in what is supposedly a modern human society.
Just speculating; I'd expect Zalae himself to either retire (because let's be honest why hasn't he) or get himself unceremoniously booted out of grandmasters because there's absolutely no way blizz can leave this hanging. Knowing him, its unlikely he'll ever come out and explain what really happened because whatever he says is unlikely to change anything and would likely even get worse.
I'm actually looking forward to it, because I'm absolutely certain that paladin's win rate in grandmasters will be actually less impressive than what we tend to believe it should be.
Pretty sure the whole lineup in grandmasters is actually targetting mage. Plenty of aggro decks, at least in asia.
Just take a deep breath. Only a few days to go before the nerfs go live.
Is this about the ex-gf issue? Maybe its something else, because this one's some months ago.
I read about it, but I think he never commented or address anything on it.
I think the reason why he played trick totem on turn 5 was because he wanted to hp that 4/1 frog, which left him with 3 mana.
On the subject, the only real misplay here would be turn 4 Deck of Lunacy. I really would have either font to look for options first, or just fireball the 2/3 if the minions cant be played.
After playing through Rokara's book, I completely believe that Guff issued funeral rites to a patch of grass. Pretty sure you can make him a villain simply by telling him who the 'bad guys' are.
Just to address this one point, if there is a reason why aggro decks are currently doing well is ironically because of lunacy mage, which stomps on every midrange deck except for paladin. To beat this deck, the general rule is to have an early tempo lead, followed by a late burst finish, and that's exactly what every deck except for paladin is doing right now.
Its not really that there aren't any anti aggro tools around; Death's Head Cultist, Gold Road Grunt, and Mor'shan Watch Post. Its just that all of them suck vs lunacy mage, and that's what the meta is currently populated with. As the meta shapes up after the nerfs I'd be expecting more tempo oriented decks, instead of the usual burst damage ones, especially since we're almost certain that something will be done to either Pen Flinger or weapon rogue in general.
The changes are probably hitting stealth rogue since its basically the old version from scholomance and team5 already said many times they prefer things to move on.
I doubt the watchposts would be hit at all. All three play specific functions. Its no coincidence that we're seeing more Far Watch Post now since mage can't really destroy this thing outside of Devolving Missiles, which they don't mulligan for anyway. After the nerf, I'd expect Mor'shan Watch Post to be more prominent instead.
That paladin nerf is likely to be Sword of the Fallen, although I wouldn't be too surprised to see Libram of Hope upped 1 mana, or Aldor Attendant becoming a 2 drop again. To be honest, hitting the librams would be the smarter choice in my opinion.