Mogu Flashshaper - Nerf or Buff?

Hello everyone,

as you might have heard, Mogu Fleshshaper will be changed soon (in less than 24 hours to be precise), moving its cost from 7 up to 9.
To be honest I was ok with this balance change, but I've read more than one person saying that this should be a buff instead of a nerf. It is true?

Let's look at it closely.

I'll now list every single 8 and 10 drops currently available in Standard, dividing them in 3 categories: potentially game ending (you definitely highballed), good (nice upgrade) and bad (worse or not much better). In order to give this rates I'll take in consideration a scenario in which the game isn't already decided. Consider also that some minions are in the middle ground between two tiers, so you may not agree about some decisions, but you should be able to see the logic behind all.
Let's start with the 8 drops:
POTENTIALLY GAME ENDING (8): Al'Akir the Windlord, Deathwing, Mad Aspect, Mosh'Ogg Enforcer, Tirion Fordring, Walking Fountain, Zzeraku the Warped, Grommash Hellscream, Batterhead.

GOOD (20): Akali, the Rhino (it would be in a lower tier if not for the effect), Catrina Muerte, Deranged Doctor, Fel Lord Betrug, Gruul, Da Undatakah, Gilnean Royal Guard, Ironbark Protector (maybe higher), Jepetto Joybuzz, Lucentbark, Mana Giant, Murozond the Infinite, Octosari (double edged blade but still an 8/8), Princess Talanji, Splintergraft, Tess Greymane (on the edge of being lower), Tomb Warden (not lower just for the taunt), Twin Tyrant, Whirlwind Tempest (see Tess), Cauldron Elemental.

BAD (8): Arcane Devourer, Captain Hooktusk, Heroic Innkeeper, Hex Lord Malacrass, Hir'eek, the Bat, Pit Crocolisk, Splitting Festeroot (maybe higher), Tortollan Pilgrim.

In the end we have 8 really good outcomes, 20 decent ones and 8 bad ones, with the average result being a 5,5/7, with an 11% chance to have Rush (4/36), a 6% chance to have Charge or Windfury (2/36 in both cases), a 19,4% chance to have Taunt (7/36), an 11% chance to have a somewhat useful deathrattle (again 4/36) and finally a 61% chance to get more than a simple vanilla minion (22/36).

Let's do the same thing for the 10 drops too

POTENTIALLY GAME ENDING (4): Colossus of the Moon, Big Bad Archmage, Kalecgos, Deathwing.

GOOD (8): Emeriss, Jumbo Imp, Hakkar, the Soulflayer, Sea Giant, Nozari, The Boom Reaver, Living Monument, Mecha'thun.

BAD (1): King Phaoris.

This time we have 4 really good outcomes, 8 good ones and just a bad one, with a 1/12 chance to get taunt and roughly a 50% chance (5/12) to get something more than a vanilla minion, with an average result of a 7,8/8,9.

Now, from what gathered here we can draw these conclusions:

• none of the two pools is bad (no shit Sherlock).
• while the 10 drops pool has a higher chance to get a really good minion, the 8 drops pool will get you something that will immediately affect the board with a much higher frequency.
• the average minion you'll get from the 10 drops pool has +2/+2 compared to the one you'd get from the 8 drops pool, which is fair if you consider the vanilla test.

That being said, why and when do you play Mogu Fleshshaper (followed by and evolve card, of course)? The answer is simple: the faster the better. You want to get the most possible out of you mana cheating effect. That's why even Murloc builds used to run him since they didn't want to play for value/control.

Imagine this average scenario: 1 drop + totem + enemy minion + other minion (second totem, second enemy minion, lackey, Faceless Lackey shenanigans,...) will discount Mogu for 4 and thus you'll be able to play it on turn 3, with (like I said before) 28 in 36 chances to get a well statted 8 drop that your opponent will have to answer in one or two turns.

What about 9 mana Mogu? In these case, you'll have to wait at least two more turns, in order to

1. play more minions in order to get more discount
2. keep the board spread out against your opponent's trades
3. get more mana in order to be able to actually play the card

Given these premises, the surprise/game breaking effect of Mogu would be less impacting on the board, to the point where a +2/+2 couldn't be enough to compensate the turns spent in order to set up an appropriate table.
I'll say it again: the Mogu Fleshshaper + Mutate combo's main goal is not to put as much stats as possible on the board, but do it the fastest you can, in order to have more chances for your big drop to stick.
Therefore, I can affirm that Mogu Fleshshaper's balance change is meant to be a nerf and not a buff.

TLDR: answering an 8 drop on turn 4 is much more difficult than dealing with a 10 drop on turn 6/7 - it's a nerf, not a buff.

Thanks for reading, I hope you've found this post interesting and insightful.
I'm really looking forward to read your own opinions!

I agree with this, anything that increases mana cost is also a nerf with no upside, even if it get benefits from mutate/other evolve spell, because now we have more time to answer it with removal spell or board control.

There are some hard-to-kill minions like Tyrantus too, but you will have more time to deal with it. Like you said, it’s much better.

This is a buff imo because now Mogu can't become Hireek lol.

Quote From twis2424

This is a buff imo because now Mogu can't become Hireek lol.

So you'd wait like two more turns (with all the bad consequences I wrote) only to get rid of a 1 in 36 chance?
I don't know man...

8 mana has pretty much always been the best cost to evolve into, I’d be surprised if that had really changed

It's now a 1 mana cheaper sea giant with - 5/-4 in stats but with rush, with that comparison the card looks SO much weaker than it was I used to play zoo a lot casting a sea giant is easier said than done, yes it's a lot of stats but it normally comes up at least at turn 5.

and you need not only a big board, but also the mana to cast it. The nerf makes this card, much harder to play on a 3 v 3 board scenario this costs 3 instead of 1 and that's the most common scenario for this card. 

i don't get why people would think it's a buff. The whole point of it was that Mogu could come down as early as turn 3 and just win the game instantly, now that's delayed to at least turn 4 or 5 while at the same time mostly giving out vanilla results which are at the very least easier to deal with than something like Al'Akir or Walking Fountain.

I don't even think it's worth inluding Mutate now, because it's just not as game-winning anymore. Corrupt Elementalist also got worse by evolving into a 7-drop, which are much weaker on average.

Fleshshaper will still see play, but the way it was meant to: as efficient removal against token decks.

This is not a buff. After the nerf it is only 1 less mana than sea giant, and anybody who has played sea giant knows that casting a sea giant is hard. You can evolve into a bigger minions now, but if you are going to play a 9 mana sea giant and then evolve it into a 10 mana card, is it really that much better than sea giant?

Big nerf.

The major advantage of this card was it could come down very early, clear an enemy minion, and get the buff into an 8 drop.

Now, it will be harder to even drop the card on the board. I predict this and mutate aren't even played in tier 1 Shaman decks. You need tempo with Galakron Shaman in particular for turns 1-4, before your bigger threats start to come down. The deck will need to adapt.