Post-nerf Meta Discussion!

So... what happened? I haven’t actually gotten around to playing Hearthstone after the nerfs but from what I can tell it seems pretty bad? Like Paladin has actually become even stronger? (Well, at least judging from HS replay statistics).

I mean, I hope this is only a short-term problem that comes from a recent meta fluctuation with people changing around their decks and what-not. But I’m also surprised to see that Hunter winrates have ballooned as well. I don’t remember Hunter having a particulary good matchup against Paladins either.

So my hypothesis right now is that: Yes, Paladin is still a very strong class but will have a tiny bit weaker early game considering the First Day of School and Crabrider nerfs... however, it clearly did not address enough of its power cards like Blessing of Authority or Hand of A’dal. Anyway, I would like to think that the current fluctuations in winrate (for Paladin and Hunter) are only because people are trying out their janky new N’zoth decks and Deathrattle Demom Hunters with the new buffs. Also, the Hysteria nerf cannot be downplayed as Warlock and Priest, Paladin’s major counters, were probably temporarily shelved away in light of the nerfs.I mean Priest in particular has really good matchups against anything that’s not Warlock, so I am honestly quite shocked at the massive fluctuation in winrates.

So to summarize, Paladin and Hunter are just beating up all the new homebrew decks, artificially boosting their winrates (combined with their main counters Priest and Warlock probably dipping in playrate a bit as well). So what do you all think? Just the usual doom and gloom from the community or a sign that the worse is yet to come?

Two things: Blizzard has a problem they can't figure out right now. The Core set is amazing but it overly buffed cards that generate or discover other cards. The limited card pool of standard makes cards like Deck of Lunacy, Jandice Barov, First Day of School, Draconic Studies, ect. very powerful. As they said when they nerfed Jandice, they don't want to make poor 5-drops in the future just to deal with her. The First Day nerf slowed it down but the 1-drop pool is still really strong, so an extra minion feels like a buff. Paladin really shines when it has powerful 1 drops it can weave into it's turns to guarantee a body to buff. Core set causes some issues with a smaller discover pool. It's just growing pains we may have to deal with for a year until they discover a good solution.

Second Warlock has crazy control tools. Board wipes, big minions, enemy discard/burn, value hero and good reload. I think that'll make them king for a while until other classes catch up. I'm hoping the mini set and next set push another class up enough to contend. This is a think Blizzards plan over all. Just set up the buffs to swing classes to underused strategies in the miniset and next set. The buffs definitely did more than I thought, especially N'zoth which looked just weird but it set up Demon Hunter really well.

TLDR: I don't think the buffs/nerfs are bad just slow as they rely on future content and Core set causes discover/generation issues that are difficult to solve.

A few days after the nerfs and buffs, it's safe to say that the meta is mostly the same. Paladins, Hunters, Warriors, and Mages are still running rampant, with the most noticeable change being an uptick in Demon Hunters, though with Paladin still strong it's unlikely they'll dominate. In the first two days after the patch, I had a lot of success with a Primordial Clown Druid that I took from Diamond 10 to as high as Diamond 2, feasting on Priests, Warlocks, and DHs. That is, until the meta began to settle and I faced lots of Paladins and Mages again. 

Shaman and Warlock still suck as expected, with Priest being a minor annoyance with their hard-removal, reactive game plan and nothing else. 

From my experience on ladder, Paladin is just too out of control. It's just mind-boggling that the devs didn't nerf Conviction (Rank 1), and the nerfs to First Day of School and Crabrider didn't slow down the class at all, as expected. Shaman's cards aren't *that* bad; it's just that their game plans are too fair compared to the rest of the field, like the class is still stuck in Classic Hearthstone or something. 

We'll have to wait for the mini-set to actually shake things up.

I don't know why they nerfed Spring Water  because "we're aiming to lower the frequency of extreme turns where Refreshing Spring Water draws cards and gains you mana in the process."  but left Incanter's Flow untouched, when Incanter's Flow can still achieve the same effect. 

Quote From kaladin

I don't know why they nerfed Spring Water  because "we're aiming to lower the frequency of extreme turns where Refreshing Spring Water draws cards and gains you mana in the process."  but left Incanter's Flow untouched, when Incanter's Flow can still achieve the same effect. 

They clearly stated that if they'd nerf flow, spell mage would take a massive dive in winrate, bordering unplayability. They didn't want to go that far.

Also lol @whoever said warlock has the best control tools. The deck is absolute dumpster-tier still.

they don't know how to balance anythng in terms of winrate, as evidenced by........the latest patch we're discussing. 

that also seems like an admission that flow is super broken. better not nerf it, blizzard only does nerfs that have zero impact on the meta.