Aggro wins or loses the game by turn 5 or 6. Most of these decks can only do that with god-like draw. These are mostly not aggro - they are mostlytempo or midrange.
This looks very complete and thorough. Great job on the article!
But am I the only one who is worried that there will almost never be a coherent strategy for deck-building, when there are THIS many different buckets available for each hero?
I got just one pack, though my total viewing time was only about 5 hours or so. Basically, it's totally not worth watching for the packs. You should watch if you enjoy it, but if you're just after packs, the odds are VERY low.
Are we really in this place? Of all the potentially explosive combos in the game, the Divine Spirit/Inner Fire combo is one of the touchiest to pull off. First off, you need a high health minion to stick. Then you need your opponent to not have taunts. Then you need to actually have two divine spirits AND an inner fire or topsy turvy in hand.
If people are worried about DS/IF priests, put a couple reborn taunts in your deck. They can't combo through taunts, unless they have their single copy of silence in hand.
Summary: What beats the DS/IF combo? Board clears beat it; taunts beat it; trading into minions to drop their health or kill them beats it; and if they cannot do the combo all in one turn, leaving a buffed minion on board, then any silence UTTERLY destroys it. Silence also deals with Amet.
I also consider Nightmare Amalgam to be a poor choice. Ghost Light Angler has synergy both with murlocs and with board refill and with Bloodlust. It definitely deserves a spot.
You should be finding that Sergeant Sally is just bad. I tried to make her work too, back when I played handbuff paladin. She just doesn't work. And in the process, I would honestly give her the award for the worst legendary Blizzard ever printed. One of the only legendaries I ever dusted with no worries that I'll ever regret it.
Everyone is mean to the OP. But if you have a look at the data, quest shaman is not under 50% winrate. It's most popular version is at 57% or so since the nerfs. This winrate is not nerf-worthy, but it's definitely not pathetic either, like some people are implying. Data here: https://hsreplay.net/decks/PYOgOeR71E7VgYcr6lFR6c/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD
Duppie says that priest was the best deck in tournaments, yet only one priest made the top 8 at the recent Masters tournament, and didn't even end up in the top 4. The top 4 were two mages, a warrior, and a hunter. Hmmm ....
Priest had the highest overall winrate as a class at the whole event by far (59%) to mage (50%) and warrior (46%). Basing the power level of the decks off the few games in the finals doesn't make sense, being the best deck doesn't mean its 100% winrate and never loses. The quantity of mages and warriors was greatly in their favor. Dog's freeze mage wasn't the best deck in the game even though he won the vegas tour with it.
It was looking quite strong in open cups too.
A funny thing happens when a certain deck mostly has mirror matches for an entire tournament. What do you suppose is the winrate of a tournament that is all mages? You guessed it: 50%. Of course the overall mage winrate is artificially deflated because all of those mirrors automatically have a 50% winrate. This causes the overall data for mages to be almost entirely useless for that tournament; with so many mirrors, overall winrate tells you nothing about the deck's power level.
Warrior had a lower overall winrate because it's not very good against mage specifically. And the tournament was mostly mages. Which should tell you something significant all by itself. Yet, despite the overall lower winrate, there were still 2 warriors in the top 8. And in spite of the overall higher winrate, there was only 1 priest in the top 8. The proper take-away is this: the priest was favored in that tournament, but the DECK was inconsistent, even in the hands of very skilled players. How can the average winrate be way higher than other classes but still not break into the top 8? Because the top 8 had winrates of 75-90%, WAY higher than the average of any deck. So, the only decks that make it to the top are ones that can CONSISTENTLY win in the hands of the best players. And priest just didn't hit that mark. Even with 2-cost Extra Arms, it was not consistent enough.
Summary: Taking overall data for a tournament setting is extremely deceptive and leads to poor conclusions.
Side note: I played with a similar deck quite a bit - there were times that you blow out your opponent, and other times you have a hand full of spells with no minions, and you just get steamrolled. It was a very polarized deck, but not consistent enough to be called the best deck in the game; not even close.
Duppie says that priest was the best deck in tournaments, yet only one priest made the top 8 at the recent Masters tournament, and didn't even end up in the top 4. The top 4 were two mages, a warrior, and a hunter. Hmmm ....
I think it was just the timing. It would be weird to nerf the #2 and #3 classes/decks but not the #1, albeit Pocket and Boom are a lot more "toxic" than extra arms was on the meta.
This is extremely short-sighted to say that combo priest was the #1 deck. One or two weeks does not indicate long term performance. Mage and Warrior were in the top two spots for a LONG time. To say that they were #2 and #3 is just not true. Combo priest was far too new to say anything definitive about it; and definitely WAY too soon to say it was going to be better than Mage and Warrior
Because of the dumb combo thats why. Priest can't have nice things because of Divine Spirit and Inner Fire, should have just HoF the piece of shit cards and be done with it.
Honestly, it's not really even the combo. It's the ability to get through taunts AND the combo. I kinda think the sleeper problem here is Silence and Mass Dispel. These cards are the antidote to the hard counter for the Divine SpiritInner Fire combo: TAUNTS. Without such easy silence access, the combo is MUCH harder to consistently pull off, because the only thing the opponent needs to stop the combo dead in the water is a taunt or two or three. But the silences negate that hard counter, leaving very little way to hard counter the combo.
TL;DR - the real issue is Priest's access to very powerful silences.
Most likely answer: they already had nerfs on the schedule, and they were scared of how strong the aggro combo priest could be. Leave aside the philosophy that has always dictated their actions in the past (give it time, see how it pans out). Leave aside the fact that the meta hadn't even had a chance yet to get hostile against aggro priest and come up with counters to it.
They were already doing other nerfs, so they made a hasty decision to revert the Extra Arms nerf alongside other much-more-deserved nerfs to decks that have had their (very long) time to shine.
And the nerf really did completely destroy the deck, as expected. Priest can go back to being garbage tier again; Blizzard hates you guys.
Edit: Oh, and it was also a very cheap deck, so almost anyone could have crafted it if they wanted to spend the dust. Other super powerful decks are more limited in their scope, because not that many people have all the cards (Reno mage, control warrior, pocket mage, etc) - so maybe they have a lesser impact naturally since not everyone can afford them.
Pretty sure this nerf completely tanks the combo priest archetype. Maybe too soon to call it, but from what I've seen, the combo priest deck is now dead in the water.
Maybe it's just my own bias speaking, but I'm kinda sad to see this card go. Post-buff, this was one of my favorite cards from Boomsday and I had a lot of fun with it. RIP
I agree. I really liked the buff to it. But now that Priest FINALLY got early game minions that are playable, it's way too snowball-y.
I have to ask what you're referring to. The lists I've seen of combo priest use Northshire Cleric and Lightwarden. Those cards have never not been available. I see no other 1 drops being played right now, aside from maybe Crystallizer which is also not new. Can you enlighten me as to what these new priest minions are that required a nerf to Extra Arms because they are so snowball-y? (And before you answer, Grandmummy does not count as being snowball-y with a 2-cost Extra Arms.)
Combo priest only just became a thing. They have never before nerfed something this fast. It's unprecedented. Only conclusion I can come to is that they want the priest class to remain unplayable, like it was for ... I don't even know how long.
The extra arms nerf is waaaaay too early. Priest had been garbage tier for months, and has basically never had a good tempo deck. As soon as they get a good deck, and a tempo one at that, they get nerfed after 2 weeks ... While warrior gets to be insanely OP for months on end. Yeah, seems totally fair.
Aggro wins or loses the game by turn 5 or 6. Most of these decks can only do that with god-like draw. These are mostly not aggro - they are mostlytempo or midrange.
This looks very complete and thorough. Great job on the article!
But am I the only one who is worried that there will almost never be a coherent strategy for deck-building, when there are THIS many different buckets available for each hero?
I got just one pack, though my total viewing time was only about 5 hours or so. Basically, it's totally not worth watching for the packs. You should watch if you enjoy it, but if you're just after packs, the odds are VERY low.
Are we really in this place? Of all the potentially explosive combos in the game, the Divine Spirit/Inner Fire combo is one of the touchiest to pull off. First off, you need a high health minion to stick. Then you need your opponent to not have taunts. Then you need to actually have two divine spirits AND an inner fire or topsy turvy in hand.
If people are worried about DS/IF priests, put a couple reborn taunts in your deck. They can't combo through taunts, unless they have their single copy of silence in hand.
Summary: What beats the DS/IF combo? Board clears beat it; taunts beat it; trading into minions to drop their health or kill them beats it; and if they cannot do the combo all in one turn, leaving a buffed minion on board, then any silence UTTERLY destroys it. Silence also deals with Amet.
I also consider Nightmare Amalgam to be a poor choice. Ghost Light Angler has synergy both with murlocs and with board refill and with Bloodlust. It definitely deserves a spot.
My favorite Uldum moment so far was winning a game with Murloc Paladin, despite drawing BOTH Tip the Scales in my first 5 cards.
You should be finding that Sergeant Sally is just bad. I tried to make her work too, back when I played handbuff paladin. She just doesn't work. And in the process, I would honestly give her the award for the worst legendary Blizzard ever printed. One of the only legendaries I ever dusted with no worries that I'll ever regret it.
These are super interesting decks, but I have to ask - with so many of these basically already highlander decks, WHERE IS Zephrys the Great?
That is one REALLY bad player you were up against. Holy cow. Shame concede right there.
Everyone is mean to the OP. But if you have a look at the data, quest shaman is not under 50% winrate. It's most popular version is at 57% or so since the nerfs. This winrate is not nerf-worthy, but it's definitely not pathetic either, like some people are implying. Data here: https://hsreplay.net/decks/PYOgOeR71E7VgYcr6lFR6c/#gameType=RANKED_STANDARD
A funny thing happens when a certain deck mostly has mirror matches for an entire tournament. What do you suppose is the winrate of a tournament that is all mages? You guessed it: 50%. Of course the overall mage winrate is artificially deflated because all of those mirrors automatically have a 50% winrate. This causes the overall data for mages to be almost entirely useless for that tournament; with so many mirrors, overall winrate tells you nothing about the deck's power level.
Warrior had a lower overall winrate because it's not very good against mage specifically. And the tournament was mostly mages. Which should tell you something significant all by itself. Yet, despite the overall lower winrate, there were still 2 warriors in the top 8. And in spite of the overall higher winrate, there was only 1 priest in the top 8. The proper take-away is this: the priest was favored in that tournament, but the DECK was inconsistent, even in the hands of very skilled players. How can the average winrate be way higher than other classes but still not break into the top 8? Because the top 8 had winrates of 75-90%, WAY higher than the average of any deck. So, the only decks that make it to the top are ones that can CONSISTENTLY win in the hands of the best players. And priest just didn't hit that mark. Even with 2-cost Extra Arms, it was not consistent enough.
Summary: Taking overall data for a tournament setting is extremely deceptive and leads to poor conclusions.
Side note: I played with a similar deck quite a bit - there were times that you blow out your opponent, and other times you have a hand full of spells with no minions, and you just get steamrolled. It was a very polarized deck, but not consistent enough to be called the best deck in the game; not even close.
Duppie says that priest was the best deck in tournaments, yet only one priest made the top 8 at the recent Masters tournament, and didn't even end up in the top 4. The top 4 were two mages, a warrior, and a hunter. Hmmm ....
This is extremely short-sighted to say that combo priest was the #1 deck. One or two weeks does not indicate long term performance. Mage and Warrior were in the top two spots for a LONG time. To say that they were #2 and #3 is just not true. Combo priest was far too new to say anything definitive about it; and definitely WAY too soon to say it was going to be better than Mage and Warrior
Honestly, it's not really even the combo. It's the ability to get through taunts AND the combo. I kinda think the sleeper problem here is Silence and Mass Dispel. These cards are the antidote to the hard counter for the Divine Spirit Inner Fire combo: TAUNTS. Without such easy silence access, the combo is MUCH harder to consistently pull off, because the only thing the opponent needs to stop the combo dead in the water is a taunt or two or three. But the silences negate that hard counter, leaving very little way to hard counter the combo.
TL;DR - the real issue is Priest's access to very powerful silences.
Most likely answer: they already had nerfs on the schedule, and they were scared of how strong the aggro combo priest could be. Leave aside the philosophy that has always dictated their actions in the past (give it time, see how it pans out). Leave aside the fact that the meta hadn't even had a chance yet to get hostile against aggro priest and come up with counters to it.
They were already doing other nerfs, so they made a hasty decision to revert the Extra Arms nerf alongside other much-more-deserved nerfs to decks that have had their (very long) time to shine.
And the nerf really did completely destroy the deck, as expected. Priest can go back to being garbage tier again; Blizzard hates you guys.
Edit: Oh, and it was also a very cheap deck, so almost anyone could have crafted it if they wanted to spend the dust. Other super powerful decks are more limited in their scope, because not that many people have all the cards (Reno mage, control warrior, pocket mage, etc) - so maybe they have a lesser impact naturally since not everyone can afford them.
Pretty sure this nerf completely tanks the combo priest archetype. Maybe too soon to call it, but from what I've seen, the combo priest deck is now dead in the water.
I have to ask what you're referring to. The lists I've seen of combo priest use Northshire Cleric and Lightwarden. Those cards have never not been available. I see no other 1 drops being played right now, aside from maybe Crystallizer which is also not new. Can you enlighten me as to what these new priest minions are that required a nerf to Extra Arms because they are so snowball-y? (And before you answer, Grandmummy does not count as being snowball-y with a 2-cost Extra Arms.)
Combo priest only just became a thing. They have never before nerfed something this fast. It's unprecedented. Only conclusion I can come to is that they want the priest class to remain unplayable, like it was for ... I don't even know how long.
The extra arms nerf is waaaaay too early. Priest had been garbage tier for months, and has basically never had a good tempo deck. As soon as they get a good deck, and a tempo one at that, they get nerfed after 2 weeks ... While warrior gets to be insanely OP for months on end. Yeah, seems totally fair.
The power of Armagedilo and Tomb Warden can be illustrated in this hypothetical line of play:
Turn 6: Armagedilo
Turn 7: Dr. Boom Mad Genius
Turn 8: Tomb Warden, as two 5/8 taunts (or 7/10 taunts) with rush