I'd like to think that the lower winrate of quest shaman and quest druid is due to the large amount of experimentation, and that as time goes on, the better builds will win out and they will both end up with higher winrates. I'm not so hopeful though, especially on quest druid. Quest shaman shows more promise.
For quest druid: At all ranks, it is 49.5% over the entire expansion. Last 3 days it is at 48.7% and last 1 day it is at 47.5%. So it seems that the quest druid is just worsening over time. At upper ranks it is doing even worse. From rank 5-legend, it is 47.1% over the whole expansion, 46.6% over past 3 days and 45.7% over the past day. It's looking bleak for quest druid.
For quest shaman: At all ranks, it is 49% over the entire expansion. Past 3 days, it is also 49%. Past 1 day, it is up to 49.5%. It's been improving slightly, so there might be some promise here. At upper ranks, it is 48.2% over the whole expansion. Past 3 days, it is at 48.3%. Past 1 day it is at 48.6%. So we've seen some improvement, though it's still fairly negative.
Quest shaman I'd say is also the deck that has the most possibilities for different builds. You can go all the way from a fast aggro version meant to burn down the opponent immediately, all the way up to a fatigue style control deck. So there's a lot more possibilities and variance in the builds, as well as a lot more room to find the perfect formula that will have the best chances of winning in the current meta.
Quest druid on the other hand is far more straight forward in its build. The number of different choose one cards are rather limited, so the different ways you can actually build the deck are limited as well. Druid doesn't have the tools to be much of a control deck without single target removals or any serious board clears, nor can the quest be aggro with how it forces you to skip using your mana. It will always be either a midrange value deck or some sort of crazy combo deck with Elise.
So based on the info we have available, I'd assume that when everything is finished, quest shaman will end up as a pretty solid T2 deck list while quest druid will be little more than a tier 3 deck used in certain competitive circumstances where you can ban bad matchups. Even then though, there may be better options.
These statistics are really interesting. I'm guessing they're from hsreplay. Are they premium only?
Some great insights overall. I guess I thought quest shaman would be more straightforward than it is. Throwing in all the lackey synergies + good lategame value cards such as Swampqueen Hagatha and Shudderwock mixed with some boardclear isn't enough to have the deck reach 50% just yet apparently.
Will be interesting to see how the quests further develop, and what vS' thoughts are coming thursday.
So, we're a few days into the expansion. Of course a lot of decks are still being refined heavily but looking at hsreplay just now surprised me. The meta archetypes tab in particular: https://hsreplay.net/meta/#tab=archetypes
The only quest deck with a positive winrate is the paladin one. Obviously half of the quests were quite obviously going to be meme tier at best. But quest druid and shaman not being able to hit an average winrate of 50% or higher baffles me.
My assumption why only Uther's quest seems competitive would be because quest paladin destroys the 'strongest' deck right now, control warrior. With a whopping 76.8% winrate no less. Whereas all the other decks stand no chance against good ol' Garrosh. Even quest shaman with its near infinite value seems to be no match.
What are your thoughts on why this is the case? Do you think druid, shaman or any other quest deck can still climb to a positive winrate?
Reno priest is a combo deck more than anything. It looks to survive against aggro decks thanks to its healing spells, hero power, board clears and Reno Jackson. It looks to cycle through its deck as fast as possible in slower matchups to get to its combo pieces.
Activate the Obelisk has no place in a combo deck as the few minions that it runs either serve as card draw or survival.
I know mage excels in AOE, but sometimes you need a real board clear. Now the question is, why does mage has no board clear while other classes do. I can create some 2/3 card combo which should clear the board, say a 6 damage to all minions. But his does not clear a board of mountain giants for instance, or one 24/24 mech.
Why would mage so desperately need a guaranteed board clear?
Adding a second way to perform the same combo doesn't make the combo any better. Combo priest should exist already since the pieces are already there, yet it doesn't. Because it's slow, inconsistent and priest doesn't have any good tools to survive until they can pull off the combo.
Big shaman or bust. Muckmorpher is probably the only somewhat reliable way to pull it out early and (ab)use it besides random Conjurer's Calling transforms.
I'm quite excited as long as there's decks that can outvalue warrior. I feel like control and bomb warrior might be the only thing that could dampen my spirits, but I remain optimistic.
It should still be around tier 3ish if piloted well enough. It's just that little to no people play it anymore so there's not a whole lot of data on it.
Edit: Oh and it looks like even shaman might be getting some buffs. Reno priest has always been a good counter against even shaman so that might help as well.
Seems pretty fun. I would cut the Salhet's Pride though. Crystology is strong but it has negative synergy with Prismatic Lens. Although I have seen streamers run a similar build with Consecration as well, so it might be worth a shot after all.
I don't know how Quest Rogue was fairing in wild, but this is a nice way to make Sonya to be used as intented: a value generator using little copies of big battlecriers/deathrattlers/EoT users.
This change would have made the last few months of standard Quest Rogue look less painful for control decks, though.
Quest rogue doesn't exist in wild and hasn't for a looong time.
So I couldn't care less about this nerf, to be honest. But consistency is always good.
I am almost certain, that this will replace Maelstrom Portal in even shaman. The battlecry also offers some quest synergies. The card is already good, but Vessina makes it even better.
It doesn't synergize with the spellpower totem plus it overloads you for one the next turn.
Yes, I was aware of that, I just thought that the 2/2 body would be good enough, but I admit I could be wrong.
Yeah that would mostly depend on what the average stat-line in wild is for 1-drops. I'm guessing 2-2 is slightly above average, which is why I think both cards are about equal in strength.
I am almost certain, that this will replace Maelstrom Portal in even shaman. The battlecry also offers some quest synergies. The card is already good, but Vessina makes it even better.
It doesn't synergize with the spellpower totem plus it overloads you for one the next turn.
In return you get to deal 1 damage guaranteed without being interrupted by Never Surrender! and you get a slightly better minion on average (I think?).
I'm honestly not sure which one of these is better. They seem pretty on par to me. Will be interesting to see which card turns out to be better.
That's exactly the point. It is a card from 5 years ago that is still good enough to see some amount of play in wild. Do you know how many cards never see any fucking play in Wild? And how many more will never be played?
Who fucking cares anyway.
This is a standard card, and it's the best egg we've had in a while.
Why are you bringing up a card's age to determine its strength in an eternal format? That's not relevant at all.
Is the beast tribe really worth making it harder to kill and losing 1 attack on the thing it summons.
You're comparing it to one of the best cards of all time. I mean, it still sees play in Wild - it's very unlikely they ever release a card that good again.
You mean best egg of all time? Because Nerubian Egg is nowhere near the best card of all time.
I didn't say 'THE BEST'. I said one of the best, and I stand by that.
Yes, and I said it's 'NOWHERE NEAR' that. It sees play in a tier 4 wild deck and that's all.
Uh, yeah. That's the suggestion I was agreeing with in the first place?
These statistics are really interesting. I'm guessing they're from hsreplay. Are they premium only?
Some great insights overall. I guess I thought quest shaman would be more straightforward than it is. Throwing in all the lackey synergies + good lategame value cards such as Swampqueen Hagatha and Shudderwock mixed with some boardclear isn't enough to have the deck reach 50% just yet apparently.
Will be interesting to see how the quests further develop, and what vS' thoughts are coming thursday.
Oh shoot, you're right! I totally missed that one, my bad.
So we're at 2/9 now then.
So, we're a few days into the expansion. Of course a lot of decks are still being refined heavily but looking at hsreplay just now surprised me. The meta archetypes tab in particular: https://hsreplay.net/meta/#tab=archetypes
The only quest deck with a positive winrate is the paladin one. Obviously half of the quests were quite obviously going to be meme tier at best. But quest druid and shaman not being able to hit an average winrate of 50% or higher baffles me.
My assumption why only Uther's quest seems competitive would be because quest paladin destroys the 'strongest' deck right now, control warrior. With a whopping 76.8% winrate no less. Whereas all the other decks stand no chance against good ol' Garrosh. Even quest shaman with its near infinite value seems to be no match.
What are your thoughts on why this is the case? Do you think druid, shaman or any other quest deck can still climb to a positive winrate?
Exactly my thoughts. Running Sandbinder to get only a single card makes no sense. Neither does running Vereesa Windrunner in this deck.
Northshire Cleric
A 1/3 minion with an upside.
Reno priest is a combo deck more than anything. It looks to survive against aggro decks thanks to its healing spells, hero power, board clears and Reno Jackson. It looks to cycle through its deck as fast as possible in slower matchups to get to its combo pieces.
Activate the Obelisk has no place in a combo deck as the few minions that it runs either serve as card draw or survival.
No.
Why would mage so desperately need a guaranteed board clear?
Adding a second way to perform the same combo doesn't make the combo any better. Combo priest should exist already since the pieces are already there, yet it doesn't. Because it's slow, inconsistent and priest doesn't have any good tools to survive until they can pull off the combo.
Big shaman or bust. Muckmorpher is probably the only somewhat reliable way to pull it out early and (ab)use it besides random Conjurer's Calling transforms.
I'm quite excited as long as there's decks that can outvalue warrior. I feel like control and bomb warrior might be the only thing that could dampen my spirits, but I remain optimistic.
It should still be around tier 3ish if piloted well enough. It's just that little to no people play it anymore so there's not a whole lot of data on it.
Edit: Oh and it looks like even shaman might be getting some buffs. Reno priest has always been a good counter against even shaman so that might help as well.
Seems pretty fun. I would cut the Salhet's Pride though. Crystology is strong but it has negative synergy with Prismatic Lens. Although I have seen streamers run a similar build with Consecration as well, so it might be worth a shot after all.
Quest rogue doesn't exist in wild and hasn't for a looong time.
So I couldn't care less about this nerf, to be honest. But consistency is always good.
This is fantastic news. Great job you guys!
Yeah that would mostly depend on what the average stat-line in wild is for 1-drops. I'm guessing 2-2 is slightly above average, which is why I think both cards are about equal in strength.
It already is. This card is really good for that deck
It doesn't synergize with the spellpower totem plus it overloads you for one the next turn.
In return you get to deal 1 damage guaranteed without being interrupted by Never Surrender! and you get a slightly better minion on average (I think?).
I'm honestly not sure which one of these is better. They seem pretty on par to me. Will be interesting to see which card turns out to be better.
Edit: I think this card will go into the lists that run Thunderhead and Maelstrom Portal will go into the slower, non-Thunderhead lists.
Why are you bringing up a card's age to determine its strength in an eternal format? That's not relevant at all.
Yes, and I said it's 'NOWHERE NEAR' that. It sees play in a tier 4 wild deck and that's all.