Hello and welcome to the third Standard Meta Report, covering the week between August 26 and September 2, 2019, one week after the nerfs. First, a note on sample sizes. We can't tell yet which decks are prepped to dominate the meta, though several exciting trends have emerged (and we'd be willing to bet on Quest Druid). At this point, the data is too fresh to support many long-term conclusions, so we'll also be highlighting a few innovative new lists that are fun to play and may (or may not) prove competitive. Enjoy!
The Overview
Quest Shaman is officially the most popular deck in the game, taking the number one spot in play-rate from rank five to Legend. Thrall is followed close behind by Highlander Hunter and Quest Druid, with Malfurion becoming particularly prominent at Legend. As expected, Rexxar’s Highlander list is performing well against the field, benefiting from the post-nerf matchup against Control Warrior, but also feasting on the new glut of Quest-centered tempo decks.
It turns out Combo Priest is still a boss, turning in outstanding performances at rank one and Legend before falling to the top of Tier 2 at lower ranks. Most people are still running Extra Arms at 3 mana, but the card’s played winrate, as could be predicted, has fallen precipitously; Circle of Healing is now the deck’s best “buff.” Control Warrior remains well-represented throughout the meta, falling inconsistently as the fifth most-played deck from rank five to one. The deck's tempo matchups don't seem to have suffered from the nerf to Dr. Boom, Mad Genius.
Druid
Quest Druid has finally broken through, in large part because neither Combo Priest nor Highlander Mage are there to stop it anymore. Not only is the deck trendy from ranks five to Legend, but it’s also winning. A lot. In the upper echelons of play, Quest Druid is a Tier 1 deck, buoyed by the stratospheric rise of Quest Shaman, the format’s most popular list; Malfurion maintains a winrate higher than 55% against Thrall. Quest Druid also stomps Highlander Hunter, a consistently popular deck across the ranks, and Control Warrior, making it a top pick for long-term stability in the meta.
The most popular builds of Quest Druid now feature King Phaoris, whose power we highlighted last week, not Chef Nomi. As a result, contemporary lists tend to load up on high-cost spells, running two copies of Hidden Oasis. We’d also note that Flobbidinous Floop is an extremely powerful choice in the current meta, providing a second copy of Phaoris to outlast control decks, or a duplicate of Oasis Surger to handle aggressive tempo plays.
Hunter
Hunters are everywhere. The class is best represented by Highlander Hunter, which has outpaced Secret Hunter in both winrate and popularity. From ranks five to one, Highlander Hunter is the second most-played deck in the game. It drops to third at Legend but maintains a respectable winrate in the middle of Tier 2. Despite such middling success, we don’t think Highlander Hunter is the best choice for your climb. The deck’s best matchups, Combo Priest and Highlander Mage, have both fallen out of the meta to a certain extent, but the real problem lies in the fact that Highlander consistently loses to Quest Druid and Quest Shaman, the format’s most popular decks. That’s not a recipe for continued success.
Deck ID Not Found
Though Highlander builds vary to a certain extent, most players have opted for a fairly-standardized list, with the only true decision that between Vulpera Scoundrel and Sandbinder. Neither card performs very well in its own list, but we’d say the edge goes to Sandbinder, which is far more consistent in drawing us a powerful play. It’s probable, on the other hand, that Ursatron doesn’t make the cut. Springpaw isn’t pulling much weight, either, though if you see a lot of tempo matchups at lower ranks, it may still be a good option.
Mage
When your two most powerful cards get nerfed, it tends to hurt. Highlander Mage isn’t doing well. Nor is Control Mage, a list reliant on [Hearthstone Card (Conjurer’s Calling) Not Found]. Unsurprisingly, both decks have taken a steep fall in popularity, with Highlander Mage barely scraping a 2% playrate from ranks five to Legend. But remember that Tempo Rogue managed to survive a similar brush with Blizzard’s hammer not too long ago. We’re confident about Jaina’s chances, too, because she has excellent matchups against both Quest Druid and Quest Shaman, which are the two decks to beat since the patch. If she can keep it up, avoiding Highlander Hunter as much as possible, Jaina may turn out to have a convincing formula for the meta.
Unlike [Hearthstone Card (Luna’s Pocket Galaxy) Not Found], Puzzle Box of Yogg-Saron doesn’t deserve to be in your deck. Across the archetype’s three most popular lists, Puzzle Box boasts the lowest played winrate of any card in the deck. This thing hurts more than it helps. Pocket Galaxy, on the other hand, is still a powerhouse, mainly because it shines in the late game and shores up the matchup against Control Warrior, which remains the fourth most popular deck in the game.
Paladin
Murloc Paladin is not interactive and polarized, in part because it’s a combo deck. It lives and dies by the draw. While capable of squeezing out wins on tempo alone, Murloc Pally’s sole reason for existence in the current meta is the delightful interaction between Prismatic Lens and Tip the Scales. The deck’s good, though, really good, particularly at lower ranks, where it’s cleaning the clocks of slower decks with a winrate above 53%. As you might expect, Murloc Paladin’s winrate cools some at Legend, but it’s still at the higher end of Tier 2.
Deck ID Not Found
The combo at the deck’s core allows you to cheese out quick wins with remarkable regularity, making this an excellent (albeit slightly mindless) deck for climbing from rank five. Though Murloc Paladin’s play patterns are limited, it’s actually pretty fun, especially when you draw your combo. Chef Nomi turns out to be a powerful finisher in control matchups, and drawing through your deck this quickly is exhilarating. Plus, Bloodlust and Savage Roar are always a Zephrys away, allowing for insane burst damage.
Though some predicted a breakout for Quest Paladin, the deck continues to scrape the ground of Tier 2 from ranks five to one, though adding in Consecration and Truesilver Champion should maximize your winrate. Unfortunately, the deck’s a sure loser at Legend. Control Warrior may be the most successful deck at the game’s highest ranks, but it’s not the most popular. Uther’s running into more Quest Druids and Quest Shamans these days, and that’s a mixed bag. While successful against Malfurion’s late-game tempo plays, Quest Paladin has no answer for the amount of burst that Thrall can generate after completing his quest. So long as Quest Shaman is at the top of the heap, Quest Paladin will have a hard time of working its way up the ranks.
Priest
Don’t worry, Anduin, Aggro Combo Priest is still outstanding. We predicted this deck’s death last week, but it’s still kicking, taking a top spot in Tier 1 between Legend and rank two. The success rate drops as you move further down the ladder, but since the deck excels against Quest Shaman and Quest Druid, it should be a safe pick for most climbs.
Despite the nerf, the majority of players continue to play Extra Arms, which remains a powerful buff in a deck that thrives on having options. The list is still capable of insane openers, but they tend to center around Lightwarden now. High Priest Amet, in particular, shines in the current meta, having vaulted into third place for the deck’s mulligan winrate. Winning with Aggro Combo Priest isn’t hard, given how tight the synergies are. We suggest amplifying the heal factor even more by running two [Hearthstone Card (Holy Ripples) Not Found] in the place of Silence.
A slow, shambling version of Quest Priest saw some experimentation immediately after the patch, but thanks to a deplorable matchup against Quest Shaman, it’s shown few gains. Despite considerable control tools, this deck can’t get it done against the format’s true tempo archetypes.
Rogue
After a brief push immediately after the patch, Tempo Rogue has fallen back in both popularity and winrate. It’s a middling deck, showing strong results against Quest Shaman but losing consistently to Quest Druid. The deck’s potential is limited by the meta’s most powerful options, including the perennial thorn of Control Warrior. Valeera’s no better against a 9-mana Dr. Boom, Mad Genius than she was before. It turns out Garrosh’s board clears are more important in the matchup. All but the most adventurous of players have dropped Zephrys the Great from the list.
Quest Rogue still blows, losing to both Quest Druid and Quest Shaman, to say nothing of the deck’s chances against Highlander Hunter and Control Warrior. This deck loses to all four of the most popular decks on the climb between five and Legend. Right now, it's a no-go, but it need not be this way. As the meta has progressed, we've seen Quest Rogue builds veer further into excess; one we saw today played [Hearthstone Card (Prince Vargoth) Not Found] to fill the hand with even more random crap. This deck should err on the side of tempo; a good old SI:7 Agent never hurt anyone. At least no one who played it.
Shaman
Quest Shaman isn’t the patch’s big winner. That honor goes to Quest Druid and Murloc Paladin. In contrast, Thrall is hanging out in the middle of a crowded Tier 2 between five and Legend. Even so, this deck's seeing a ton of play. As we said last week, Quest Shaman is a lot of fun, and it shows. It's the most popular deck in the game, no matter which rank you look at. So what’s holding it back? While the deck is pretty good against faster board-based strategies, holding a positive winrate (barely) against Murloc Paladin, it’s pretty bad against the format’s most popular archetypes, including Highlander Hunter, Quest Druid and Control Warrior. These are dramatically different decks, so the path for optimization is unclear. Ike’s recent innovation, including an Overload and Mutate package, is promising but unproven.
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Murloc Shaman’s extreme success since the patch is proof that fast, aggressive tempo strategies represent the surest path to dominance in the current meta. Murlocs overrun Quest Druid and Highlander Hunter, both of whom lack strong AOE options. This deck is better suited to play at lower ranks than at Legend because it still struggles to handle Control Warrior.
Warlock
Though the deck doesn’t feel especially powerful against the nascent meta, Highlander Zoo Warlock is putting up some solid numbers. The deck’s winrate is respectable, but not outstanding, landing it at the top of Tier 2 at Legend, before dropping back into the pack at lower ranks. The standard Zoo list isn’t far behind. Beaming Sidekick is an excellent early gameplay, but Spirit Bomb, despite its synergy with Diseased Vulture, isn’t pulling its weight.
Warlock also has some excellent control tools, including Lord Godfrey, which I keep forgetting is still in Standard. That’s not to say that Plot Twist Warlock is any good. We hazard to guess that Plot Twist Warlock will never be good, but the deck’s making a reasonable push to shore up its perilous early game with a full Lackey package, which, dependent on draw, can dramatically improve its ability to hold pace with faster decks. A fatigue-related win condition also seems to be promising, with many players slotting in a [Hearthstone Card (Mecha’thun) Not Found] package.
Warrior
After seeing a decline in its playrate immediately after the patch, Control Warrior has once again risen to the top of Tier 1 at Legend, where it’s currently the fourth most-played list. The deck’s matchup spread is mostly unchanged; it continues to crush board-based strategies, including Quest Druid and Quest Shaman, the two most popular decks at Legend, but struggles against Highlander Hunter, greedy Mage decks and Quest Paladin.
Even more impressive, however, is the profusion of board-based strategies in the Warrior class. Aggro Warrior is sitting comfortably at the top of Tier 2 at Legend. In the lower ranks, the tempo deck’s performing even better, falling below only Murloc Paladin and Murloc Shaman for a place in Tier 1. The deck’s playrate is still low (though it rises as you reach Legend), but it should be an excellent choice for anyone climbing their way through the ranks.
Wounded Warrior is an exciting new deck from Nohandsgamer. Nohands took it to #3 legend recently and wrote a deck guide, which you can find at r/CompetitiveHS. Enrage Warrior is still chugging along amid an efflorescence of tempo-based decks for the class.
We've seen the fall of several giants over the last week, along with the rise of some new contenders to the throne. So how's the meta shaping up where you are? Are you excited about the potential of any new decks? Sad to see an old favorite go the way of the dinosaurs? Let us know in the comments.
Comments
"Enrage Warrior is still chugging along amid an efflorescence of tempo-based decks for the class."
"Efflorescence: the action or process of developing and unfolding as if coming into flower"
As my father would say, "nice word collage boy!"
Post says "First, a note on sample sizes." and then proceeds to provide no information on sample sizes.
There is no information about sample sizes at all. Actually, there's not information on the basis of ANY of the analysis in this post.
Look, I like this website and I want to support you guys, especially after the move here. However, there's a bunch of crucial information that is lacking that can help better inform the reader what to expect from this meta reports.
For instance:
If this is just one person's opinion, make it known it's just that. People still read Tempostorm's meta list, even though there a better and more accurate sources based on data out there.
I'm not against another meta list. It'd just be nice to know how relevant it is based on the sample size, data used and expertise of the person/people involved.
"Unlike [Hearthstone Card (Luna’s Pocket Galaxy) Not Found], Puzzle Box of Yogg-Saron doesn’t deserve to be in your deck."
I disagree with this statement completely. Puzzle Box can't be evaluated strictly by winrate because at any given moment it's possibilities are endless. If Puzzle Box has a winrate of 10% then when played you have a 10% chance of winning the game from that point. Sure, when already ahead and about to win don't play it, because you have a 9 out of 10 chance to throw the game. However, if your opponent has lethal set up and is about to end you, you can play Puzzle Box and go for a 0 out of 10 chance to win to a 1 out of 10. For this reason I think Puzzle Box belongs in the deck.
TLDR; Puzzle Box occasionally makes an unwinnable game a winnable one and for that it belongs in the deck.
great comment - as someone who crafted a golden Luna's Pocket Galaxy on day one (I always craft one golden Legendary on launch day to commemorate the occasion), it is very much a 7 Mana: do nothing card in some games. Puzzle Box of Yogg-Saron is 10 Mana: give me a chance to get back in this unwinnable game.
Whilst I definitely appreciate all the forms of content and reports on this site, this week's meta report has me quite puzzled.
In the hunter section, it is mentioned that highlander hunter "consistently loses to Quest shaman".
Yet in the shaman section, the following is mentioned: " it’s pretty bad against the format’s most popular archetypes, including Highlander Hunter,"
Also the matchups described in the report don't always match up with hsreplay's own meta data: https://hsreplay.net/meta/#tab=archetypes
Quest druid, for instance, is claimed to 'stomp highlander hunter and control warrior'. Yet the link above shows that quest druid's winrate against highlander hunter is only 48% and its winrate against control warrior is even worse: 42.5%. I understand that winrates differ per level, but does quest druid's winrate increase that vastly once you reach legend, that a 42.5% matchup turns into a stomp?
Of course those are only the free statistics. I don't have access to premium, which I assume you do, but it still seems unlikely to me that the winrates differ this much at higher levels.
Maybe I'm interpreting some things wrong, but if someone could elaborate a little on what I posted above that'd be much appreciated.
Yes, this is the importance of disaggregating data by rank. At Legend, Quest Druid indeed handles both Highlander Hunter (53.9% winrate) and Control Warrior (54.8% winrate). Stomps may be hyperbolic, but the general thrust of our assertion is correct. You’re right, though, that we should have been clearer in explaining which ranks we’re talking about. Highlander Hunter loses to Quest Shaman at Legend, but wins against the deck between five and one. So both statements are true, depending on which ranks you’re looking at. Sorry for the confusion, iWatchUSleep.
Thanks for the explanation! And no need to apologize.
Agreed, mentioning at what ranks the winrates apply would probably avoid a lot of the confusion.
Interesting that Quest druid's matchups improve so drastically the higher up the ladder you go. I guess it's not an easy deck to pilot.
Any word on Quest Paladin?
I'm having moderate success with it (especially since most opponents hard mulligan for counters to Murloc Paladin).
It’s in the report, but Quest Paladin is stuck at the bottom of Tier 2 between ranks one and five. Control Warrior isn’t as prevalent and Quest Shaman murders it. So do Murloc Shaman and Murloc Paladin.
U guys are way off on highlander hunter. Its better than u say it is
I don’t think we’re “way off,” though I may have overstated Highlander Hunter’s weaknesses to a certain extent.
At Legend, home to the most competent players, Highlander’s winrate is negative against both Quest Shaman and Quest Druid. Between five and one, the winrate against Quest Shaman improves, but I think that’s due to incorrect play from Quest Shaman pilots at lower ranks, not illustrative of either decks’ inherent power.
Sure way off is over exaggeration on my part but u guys get my point.
Plus i firmly believe that the popular version isn't the best one atm. Cards like marked shot and hunters pack are slow and the deck overall isnt proactive.
Theres a new version much more proactive with cards like the classic houndmaster. It tries to take the board earlier on which improves its winrate against board centric decks specially if u get explosive trap or zephyr on time.
Care to post a decklist?
Sorry for the extremely late reply. this is the deck code. of course u can tinker it a bit. some prefer to use sunreaver spy instead of hyena, but ive been trying this version with success specially when facing the version that uses marked shot and other slower approaches like vulpera and hunters pack. baited arrow has been a nice surprise as it works well in many scenarios. no savanna highmane either as it doesnt provide anything the turn it comes on
# 1x (1) Secretkeeper
# 1x (1) Shimmerfly
# 1x (1) Springpaw
# 1x (2) Explosive Trap
# 1x (2) Freezing Trap
# 1x (2) Pressure Plate
# 1x (2) Rat Trap
# 1x (2) Scavenging Hyena
# 1x (2) Snake Trap
# 1x (2) Snipe
# 1x (2) Zephrys the Great
# 1x (3) Animal Companion
# 1x (3) Deadly Shot
# 1x (3) Desert Spear
# 1x (3) Eaglehorn Bow
# 1x (3) Kill Command
# 1x (3) Masked Contender
# 1x (3) SN1P-SN4P
# 1x (3) Unleash the Hounds
# 1x (3) Ursatron
# 1x (4) Houndmaster
# 1x (4) Hyena Alpha
# 1x (4) Lifedrinker
# 1x (5) Baited Arrow
# 1x (5) Subject 9
# 1x (5) Zilliax
# 1x (6) Unleash the Beast
# 1x (7) Dinotamer Brann
# 1x (7) Siamat
# 1x (10) Zul'jin
#
AAECAR8engGoArUDxwOHBMkErgbrB8UI2wmBCv4MmPAC7/ECoIADp4IDm4UDoIUD9YkDoooD+ZYDtpwDnp0D/KMD5KQDn6UDoqUDpqUDhKcDn7cDAAA=
#
Indeed. Highlander Hunter has a positive score vs. both Quest Shaman and Druid.
Great work targus!
I‘m a Wild only player, so is there a chance that we get the same or similar report on Out of Cards as well?
Getting wild meta report would indeed be nice, but contrarily to standard which meta morphs drastically from season to season, pre/post nerfs and according to deck trends, wild meta is slower to evolve ... maybe a report monthly or quarterly would do?
Why is there no word of murloc shaman? It is tier 1 according to the hsreplay, make a word about this deck in the next report! The report is good tho.
I tried to feature the newer decks this week because the statistics are still relatively unreliable, but you are indeed correct that Murloc Shaman is doing well between ranks five and one.
Maybe it's not that Yogg's box is bad, but you usually play it when already behind or about to lose, as a last resort. That could explain low played WR.