We've got an update on Hearthstone's standard meta thanks to the fine folks at HSReplay.net. Like the stats bomb that was dropped just over a week ago, we've got fresh details on how the meta is doing after the nerfs and the results may surprise you. Any data discussed in this article is from Diamond to Legend and from the point of the patch coming out so things are still skewed. If you are looking for crafting advice, let the meta settle into the nerfs a bit first!
Mages - Gone But Not Forgotten
Mage players have lost hope, abandoning their spellbooks en masse.
The doubling of Deck of Lunacy's mana cost turn the card into dust and moved players away from the class with it losing 19.7% popularity. Overall class winrate is also down to sub-50%, coming in at 47.2%, which also isn't a great look for the class but it certainly is not over yet. Our frosty friends should stick around, but not at the oppressive numbers we saw before.
So, what are Mages playing now? Well, it turns out, people are still playing with No Minion Mage! The winrate is down to just over 50% so you'll have to have some more luck on your side if you want to have really crazy winrates, but it doesn't look like the deck is going anywhere right now. That's how you know the nerfs were fair.
Paladins - No Tears Here
Oh, Paladin. They consistently owned the ladder last year with their Libram plays and that power stayed put with the launch of the Year of the Gryphon and Forged in the Barrens. We went into the new expansion knowing Paladin was going to be strong, but the strength we saw them was something special this time around. Blizzard agreed considering their Pen Flinger to the face days are over.
With the latest meta data from HSReplay.net, we see they don't really change much in overall winrate with a solid 54.7%, but popularity sure took a hard turn. Down by almost half, only 11.4% of decks are rocking our Holy bro, Uther, which is a great thing for player sentiment because we can all move on to complain about fighting a million Warlocks instead.
So, what should you play if you want to get in some Paladin wins? Don't be surprised when I tell you Secret Paladin and Libram Paladin are both still solid. Hopefully they don't remain oppressive, though Blizzard will be evaluating that after the next Masters Tour event so we could see nerfs to the class, or buffs elsewhere.
Hunters - The New King of the Jungle?
We've got a rising star here in Un'Goro- no, there aren't that kind of jungle things going on though we do have a few beasts in our sights.
Hunters have risen to the top post-nerfs with an incredible overall winrate of 57.1%! They weren't in a bad place before the nerfs but with some of the most oppressive nonsense out of the way, it has given them room to grow. Popularity is also up with the increased winrates, now sitting at a plump 14.9%.
If you want to join the pack, we're playing Face Hunter!
Warlocks - What the !@#$?
Please don't be Tickatus, please don't be Tickatus, please don't b- crap.
While it isn't the absolute best deck, though it is solid, Control Warlock and its Tickatus nonsense is on the rise with its population more than doubling up to 18.7% and becoming the most popular class on the ladder. I wouldn't worry too much about this though because this might be EXACTLY what we want to have happen if we want to see Blizzard make adjustments to the card.
You see, last week during Dean Ayala's community Q&A, Dean addressed the card saying that they would be taking another look at it after the nerfs went out and that it isn't a very problematic card because those types of decks are always a "question of population". Well, if everyone is playing this version of Warlock, and community sentiment on the card takes a further dive, perhaps we'll see some fair changes.
Full Stats
Here are the full updated stats on winrate and popularity in the Standard meta. Keep in mind that this uses a very small snapshot of data so the results can be skewed and should not be taken as an absolute truth of where the meta is going to go. With fresh data after a set of major card changes, nothing is going to be solved on day 1.
How are you feeling about the meta so far after the card changes went through? Let us know in the comments below!
Comments
You sound afwully salty in this article.
Still no love for priest
Lol the author is pissed. But it would be nice to have a smarter analysis here.
Tickatus warlock is fun and is not that good cause it still looses to very aggro decks or face damage decks (it's still obliterated by mage spell)
The main point though is IT BEATS PALLY. That's why there is this play rate surge in the first place as everybody is looking for a counter to pally. Unless you want a 90% pally meta, nerfing warlock is not the best idea right now.
As for "non sense", I would point out that your ought to follow the very statistics your using for your analyse. You can't say in one hand that the rise of warlock is stupidly high and totally ignore its bad win-rate in the other hand.
With all due respect, if you choose to follow HSreplays dumb not filtered statistics over the pan of 1 day of meta, you should at least be consistent with it and analyse them properly. The rise of a deck with a 48% win-rate doesn't mean it's broken, it means people are trying stuff.
Last, in my very humble opinion, we should take the fact that some decks are harder to play into account when analysing a 1 day meta, else you can make mistakes like not seeing how strong rogue is when people take the time to learn how to play it.
Seriously, giving credit to a stat that says priest is worst class in win-rate is kind of weird, to say the least.
Control warlock has a 38% winrate versus secret paladin? How does it beat them?
After going through 2 days of games, I think it can be conclusively said that dhunters and paladin are at the top of the mountain and at the very bottom is unfortunately (or at least for now) rogue.
Warrior is the most midrange of midrange decks. Its so balanced in what it can do, just pure stats all round. I never really imagine losing Shield Block can be so devastating to warrior as a class, which along with the loss of Risky Skipper means there's just not enough ways for warrior to gain enough health for the late game.
Haven't really seen much mages that's not lunacy mage. Its still early, so I guess it'll be some time before we start seeing other decks from mage. Priest is weak, but mostly because its such a tall hill to climb vs warlock, which is currently popular around diamond at least.
So many face hunters, which combined with the deluge of midrange and fragment dhunters, the entire meta might as well be shaped around them. Unsurprisingly both mage and rogue has suffered greatly as a result of this.
Shaman, shaman, shaman. Might as well just prepare their own obituary until further nerfs/buffs or the midset. Draws are so pathetic that the entire gameplan might as well be revolved around Cagematch Custodian, Doomhammer, and whatever burn cards you can fit. I can't help but feel that if shaman could actually draw decently they'd be tier 1, and that's exactly what team5 has made shaman into. A coin toss class.
Paladin is strong all round. Perhaps because they hard counter dhunters so much that that's why they are tier 1 along with hunter and dhunters.
Well, I guess this is the meta then. Until the next round of changes, I expect only warrior and rogue to improve steadily upwards.
The Hunter WR is just inflated because it preys on unrefined greedy decks. Usually happens on meta shifts where everyone is experimenting.
I would also add that that specific Hunter deck just got refined in order to best deal with both Mage and Paladin and in the wake of the nerfs it just happens to be the most refined deck out there.
Hunter feels very strong. I'm not running your featured list (I prefer the [Hearthstone Card (Kolkar Packrunner) Not Found], Warsong Wrangler, Barak Kodobane list) but it feels so, so strong. I have a 75% winrate with it over 40 games, including an 11 game winstreak to legend (plus one more at legend to get the achievement).
Midrange Demon Hunter is now fun and pretty good, third on the winrate list. It's actually the first time I enjoy playing DH. Level 28 already haha..
I will second that.
dont sleep on Demons? Demons...
Ticktakus would be less annoying if Warlock didnt have a bunch of bullshit infinite removals
Agreed. I can deal with Tickatus/Y'shaarj warlocks in the past. I can deal with 15 HP - Lord Jaraxxus warlocks in the past. What I can't ever possibly beat beyond a .5% Lunacy Mage or Rod of Roasting Yogg is Tickatus+Lord J+Y'shaarj.
Just what I thought would happen, Mage drops like stone, Pally unaffected.
I am facing countless Spell Mages and it is hardly any less fun and interactive than it was before :(
I'm way down in Silver, and Spell Mage is still in heavy rotation there. Not sure why it's down as hard as it seems higher up because the deck still seems strong.
I play my own stupid builds, which colours my opinion in several ways, but I'm still unconvinced by the changes. Refreshing Spring water is still nuts.
Weapon(Poison) Rogue is your way to go, eats mages for breakfast :)
A deeper dive will reveal that the low CLASS win rate for Mage is due to people testing the waters for other archetypes, such as Freeze or Wildfire (or both). Once people see that those still don't hold a candle to Lunacy, they will stop trying and the overall class win rate will rise again.
That theory really only holds true if you believe that mage is the sole class that's experimenting. Give it a week to shake down but essentially the totals are accurate enough at first unless someone 'discovers' a new meta deck down the line (has happened before).
Not really. If other strong classes are experimenting more successfully than Mage, what I said still holds. And I do believe Paladin, for example, has plenty of room to experiment because the class overall has extremely strong tools.
Experimentation in classes that were weak before the nerf would not really affect Mage's relative win rate.