Standard Meta Report #17 - December 29, 2019 - January 5, 2020

Happy New Year from the Standard Meta Report! In this edition, we’re taking a look at the Standard format between ranks five and Legend for the week between December 29, 2019 and January 5, 2020. As always, the report is based on an analysis of statistics from HSReplay, along with personal game experience at high ranks. 

The Overview

With the nerfs to Shaman now two weeks behind us, we’ve now entered a period of prolonged refinement, as new builds continue to emerge on the Standard ladder. Amidst the turmoil, the meta is beginning to settle around three pillars: Highlander Galakrond Rogue, Galakrond Warrior and, making a triumphant return to the Standard format, Galakrond Shaman. Across the upper meta, these three archetypes reign supreme, comprising together between 30% and 50% of the format between ranks five and Legend. 

In most quarters, Galakrond Warrior is the most popular deck in the game, but as we mentioned last week, it would be a mistake to consider this archetype as a monolith; in truth, there are at least three viable builds of Galakrond Warrior. Highlander Galakrond Rogue, on the other hand, benefits from a single, stable build that seems to have reached optimization early in its development. Most players have settled on a standard list for this archetype, with the only remaining quibbles centered around the value of a lean Burgle package. Galakrond Shaman is experiencing a surge of renewed interest thanks to a fresh, spell-heavy build that uses Spirit of the Frog to cycle into its win conditions. 

Galakrond Zoo Warlock is surging, while Pirate Warrior has entered steep decline. Face Hunter is crashing back to Earth in the face of a meta teched against it. Despite a drop in popularity, Druid’s power is on the upswing thanks to an optimized build of Token Druid with strong matchups against the meta’s main contenders. A hybrid Deathrattle Galakrond Rogue is gaining steam at Legend, while a new build of Handlock has intrigued players at the highest ranks. 

Quest Resurrect Priest remains a force at lower ranks, but with the drop in Face Hunter, it may be losing its best matchup. Paladin and Mage find themselves in the dumpster, failing to garner interest or sustain acceptable winrates. 

Druid

Things may be turning around for Malfurion. While Embiggen Druid has proven a disappointment, a powerful (and thankfully, optimized) Token Druid has become the standard bearer for the class, capturing up to 37% of Druid’s playerbase as interest in Embiggen wanes. 

Token Druid is now a strong contender for a top spot in Tier 2 and may well rise to the status of a meta-breaker in the coming weeks. The archetype’s matchup spread is among the best in the Standard format. Over the past week, Token Druid has proven its ability to stand up against all of the meta’s strongest archetypes, with winning matchups against Galakrond Warrior, Galakrond Shaman, Highlander Galakrond Rogue, Quest Resurrect Priest and Face Hunter. 

The optimized build we featured last week has now earned a winrate of 54.4% over 21,000 games between five and Legend, boasting superb matchups against the meta’s highest performers. If Galakrond remains dominant in popularity at the highest ranks (and he surely will), Token Druid is poised to carve an outsized space for itself in the meta. The recent decline in Pirate Warrior is another boon to Malfurion, removing one of his only bad matchups.

At this point, only one thing could stand in the way of Malfurion’s ascent: the recent surge in Galakrond Zoo Warlock. This may well be a bad omen; over a sample of 4,500 games between five and Legend, Token Druid loses to Zoo in over 60% of cases. 

Token Druid seems to have reached a sufficient stage of optimization. Our featured build from last week has become the standard on ladder. We suggest you run Anubisath Defender as a two-of; though doubling the effect of Goru the Mightree appears powerful, Flobbidinous Floop is a bait, consistently ranking among the deck’s worst performers in both drawn and played winrate. 

Truth be told, Token Druid is the sole bright spot in Malfurion’s arsenal. Players have already given up on Dragon Druid; in both Highlander and non-Highlander variants, the archetype sucks. Quest Druid is frankly underpowered in today’s meta, and Embiggen Druid, despite some refinement (our featured build is still the best one), has failed to distinguish itself against the likes of Galakrond Warrior and Galakrond Shaman. Token Druid is the exception, but what an exception it is. 

Hunter

With the meta deadset on disrupting his goals, Rexxar may have to fall back on older strategies to distinguish himself. Face Hunter is in decline across all ranks, but remains a powerful choice at Legend, where Rogue predominates. Secret Highlander Hunter continues to look strong, but must improve its winrate against Galakrond Warrior to flourish. Quest Hunter may well be a major beneficiary of recent meta trends, including the increased prominence of Zoo. 

Throughout much of the meta, Face Hunter’s day in the sun seems to have come to an end. Outside of Highlander Galakrond Rogue, every prominent meta deck between ranks five and one is now teched to the teeth against Rexxar’s burst damage; Galakrond Warrior now packs two Armorsmiths, [Hearthstone Card (Galakrond Shaman) Not Found] is beginning to run [Hearthstone Card (Witch’s Brew) Not Found] and Quest Resurrect Priest, a natural counter, has stamped out a space for itself at lower ranks solely on the back of its dominance against Hunter.

Face Hunter may well be the easiest deck to counter, so it’s no surprise that the archetype’s playrate and winrate are both dropping. From a seat atop the lower meta one week ago, Face Hunter has fallen to become the third most-played deck between ranks five and four, where Quest Resurrect Priest remains a major problem. Things don’t look so dire at Legend, in part because Rogue continues to play an outsized role at the highest ranks. Face Hunter is dominant against Valeera, both Highlander Galakrond Rogue and Deathrattle Rogue, which explains why, after taking a dip last week, Face Hunter’s playrate at Legend has rebounded somewhat over the last few days. It helps that few players at Legend are queuing up Quest Resurrect Priest, a deck that smashes Hunter in over 80% of cases. 

Considering the current state of the meta, Secret Highlander Hunter seems to be Rexxar’s best option for the foreseeable future. Though interest in the archetype fell off a cliff at the beginning of December, Secret Highlander Hunter continues to enjoy strong matchups against both Highlander Galakrond Rogue and a resurgent Galakrond Shaman. 

The most common Secret Highlander Hunter list loses consistently to Galakrond Warrior, but our featured build is aimed to improve this all-important matchup. Clear the Way, Dwarven Sharpshooter and Faceless Corruptor provide additional resources to fight for board, while Dragonbane can be crucial in winning the face-race or clearing mid-game threats. Helping us answer the Warrior’s large threats post-Galakrond, Veranus is among the highest drawn winrate cards in the archetype, and finds a home beside Springpaw, Explosive Trap and Desert Spear. 

Quest Hunter still struggles to find players, but the archetype should be able to benefit from two recent trends on the ladder: the decline in Face Hunter (a very poor matchup) and the rise in Galakrond Zoo Warlock (a very strong matchup). The return of Galakrond Shaman should be a neutral development; this is a matchup the Hunter wins in 50% of cases, though it’s worth noting that Quest Hunter is stronger against the new Spirit of the Frog variant. 

Mage

A few weeks from the release of Descent of Dragons, the verdict on Cyclone Mage can now be made official: the deck is terrible against everything (except, oddly enough, for Deathrattle Rogue, but one positive matchup isn’t enough to prop up an archetype). Cyclone Mage loses to all of the meta’s major players, including Galakrond Shaman, Galakrond Warrior, Highlander Galakrond Rogue and Quest Resurrect Priest. The archetype’s only positive matchups come against the fringe of the fringe, decks like Dragon Druid and Mech Paladin. The weight of evidence is clear: as currently conceived, Cyclone Mage is a loser.  

Cyclone Mage is an utter failure, which leaves Jaina only one viable build for ladder play: Highlander Mage, an archetype held back for the past few weeks by the prominence of Face Hunter. With Face Hunter now in decline, Jaina could receive the shot in the arm she so desperately needs. 

We’re cautiously optimistic about the future of Highlander Mage. Hear us out. 

Highlander Mage already excels against Highlander Galakrond Rogue, a matchup of prime importance at higher ranks. And Jaina smashes Galakrond Zoo Warlock, an archetype gaining steam between ranks five and one. Add to these factors a strong winrate against Quest Resurrect Priest and excellent results against aggro (in the form of Token Druid and Pirate Warrior) and Jaina seems poised for success, both at Legend and lower on the ladder.

In fact, the only impediment to Jaina’s rise comes in the form of Galakrond Warrior, a matchup in which she typically loses. But there’s hope - a new streamlined build of Highlander Mage (one that cuts down on the Dragon synergy) has shown promising results against Garrosh, the most important matchup at lower ranks. 

Paladin

Already slated to be one of this expansion’s forgotten classes, Paladin again failed to raise interest among the playerbase this week, experiencing declines in both popularity and winrate. 

Paladin’s new archetypes have missed the mark entirely. Pure Paladin is a non-starter, suffering harsh losses at the hands of the format’s strongest strategies. Dragon Paladin is even worse. Highlander Dragon Paladin is a jumbled mess of two archetypes, neither of which work on their own. Hopefully, January’s release of 35 new cards can breathe life into the class, because Uther looks dead in the water at the moment. 

In the aggregate, Mech Paladin looks to be Uther’s strongest deck, but that’s not saying much, since the archetype’s matchup spread is truly terrible for the current meta, with losing matchups against Galakrond Warrior, Galakrond Shaman and Highlander Galakrond Rogue, the format’s three most-popular decks. 

Despite abysmal matchups against both Galakrond Warrior and Highlander Galakrond Rogue, Holy Wrath Paladin rebounded in playrate at Legend this week, an apparent response to the increased interest in Galakrond Shaman. This remains a strong matchup, one Paladin wins in about 60% of cases (over a sample of 3,500 games played at Legend), but poor results against the format’s other power players are likely to restrict Holy Wrath’s growth. 

In our featured Holy Wrath build, we double up on Shrink Ray and Wild Pyromancer; board clears come at a premium against the meta’s late-game powerhouses, including Galakrond Warrior.

Priest

Due to an outstanding matchup against Galakrond Warrior, Quest Resurrect Priest remains a powerful option at lower ranks, but the declining popularity of Face Hunter has made the archetype anything but a safe bet. The archetype’s playrate between ranks five and one has dropped precipitously over the past week, falling to a low of 5.5% over the past few days. 

Anduin has never been a sure thing at Legend, where the prominence of Highlander Galakrond Rogue, a deck to which Quest Resurrect Priest loses in about 70% of cases (over a sample of 3,100 games), discourages competitive play. The return of Galakrond Shaman, especially prominent at higher ranks, is even worse news; over a sample of 20,000 games between five and Legend, Quest Resurrect Priest loses to Thrall in about 61% of cases. 

Thanks to poor matchups against Highlander Galakrond Rogue, Galakrond Shaman and Galakrond Warrior, the meta’s three most-prominent archetypes, Aggro Combo Priest is once again on decline between five and Legend. 

Galakrond Priest seems to be the expansion’s most notable failure, failing to gain traction in a meta dominated by numerous powerful strategies. Despite promising early results against mainstays of the format, including Galakrond Warrior, the archetype’s Albatross variant has received only minor experimentation. 

Rogue

Thanks in large part to a single, extremely-powerful card, Necrium Apothecary, Valeera is thriving in the new meta. Rogue currently enjoys three winning archetypes, including, somewhat ironically, the format’s most-successful Highlander deck. 

Rogue’s overall success is no longer much of a headline, but the class continues to undergo intriguing changes. Highlander Galakrond Rogue, the most popular deck at Legend, appears to be losing steam, as does Deathrattle Rogue, an archetype that has coalesced in recent weeks around the Anubisath build. Meanwhile, Deathrattle Galakrond Rogue is gaining ground at Legend, where the archetype has experienced explosive growth over the past week. 

Deathrattle Galakrond Rogue blends a full Invoke package with the powerful handbuffs of Deathrattle Rogue’s Anubisath variant. This new archetype wraps some of the most potent power spikes from Highlander Galakrond Rogue, including the mana-cheating effects of Heistbaron Togwaggle and Galakrond, the Nightmare, in a consistent tempo-minded shell driven by Lackey generation, plus Deathrattle high-rolls. 

In preliminary results, the deck has shown weakness against Valeera’s old rivals, Galakrond Shaman and Face Hunter, but enormous strength against Galakrond Warrior, Highlander Galakrond Rogue and Quest Resurrect Priest, making this archetype a winning choice at lower ranks, one which should grow in popularity in the lower meta over the next week. 

Highlander Galakrond Rogue is the most popular deck at Legend, where Valeera benefits from competitive matchups into Galakrond Warrior and Galakrond Shaman, the format’s second and third best-represented archetypes. Deathrattle Rogue is Highlander’s only true impediment at the highest ranks; over a sample of 5,800 games, Valeera’s singleton list loses out to Deathrattle in about 45.5% of cases. While Highlander Galakrond Rogue has reached a sufficient stage of refinement, sub-optimal builds can still be found on the ladder. In particular, Tess Greymane is a bait; she’s not worth the card slot. It’s much better to run Necrium Blade and increase the consistency of your Deathrattle package. 

Faced by a wave of vicious Face Hunters, Valeera’s Highlander list was largely driven out of the lower meta, but with Rexxar now on the defensive, Rogue could make a comeback. Indeed, the lower ranks should be a happy hunting ground for Valeera, who excels against Quest Resurrect Priest and Highlander Mage, two of the more prominent archetypes at rank five. 

Deathrattle Rogue remains a strong choice on the ladder, but interest in the archetype is waning. Even so, the deck should benefit from an improvement in performance given the recent decrease in Face Hunter at lower ranks. Further improving Deathrattle Rogue’s chances in the lower meta is an excellent matchup against Galakrond Warrior, against which the archetype wins about 64% of the time. 

In other news, Mechanical Whelp has officially been abandoned for Anubisath Warbringer. In most senses, this seems to have been the appropriate choice; the Mechanical Whelp variant improved only the Face Hunter matchup, which is now in the process of drying up. 

Shaman

A little more than two weeks after being weakened by the fastest round of nerfs in Hearthstone history, Shaman has made a triumphant return to the meta. Galakrond Shaman remains a Tier 1 deck, but the archetype has experienced a strong surge of interest over the past week, gaining in popularity throughout the upper meta as players are reacquainted with its power. 

After falling below 10% of the five to Legend meta after the nerfs, Galakrond Shaman has again risen to become the third most popular deck in the game, falling in behind only Galakrond Warrior and Highlander Galakrond Rogue. Nowhere is this growth more apparent than at Legend, where Galakrond Shaman now accounts for a stunning 25% of the meta. 

At lower ranks, the archetype has also experienced sustained gains, growing to command nearly 14% of the format between ranks five and one. In the aggregate, Galakrond Shaman’s performance has been impressive, earning a winrate of 54.35% over the past seven days between five and Legend. As we noted last week, the archetype’s matchup spread is truly remarkable; even after the nerfs, the deck loses to nothing outside of Holy Wrath Paladin, Galakrond Zoo Warlock and a declining Face Hunter. We said it last week, but it bears repeating: Galakrond Shaman is the best choice for the climb from five to Legend. 

Most players between ranks five and one continue to work with a pre-nerf build, but we believe a more powerful version of the deck has emerged at Legend and already become Tier 1. GalaFrog Shaman uses Spirit of the Frog as a potent draw engine, tutoring Invocation of Frost, Earthen Might, Far Sight, Hex and, finally, [Hearthstone Card (Dragon’s Pack) Not Found] itself. 

With careful planning, many of these spells can be combined with Zentimo to triple their effects, which allows you to stall your opponent’s board pressure (with Invocation of Frost) while consistently Invoking Galakrond, the Tempest, generate additional resources (through Earthen Might) and transform bothersome boards (Quest Resurrect Priest, beware!) into croaking frogs. Insane draw thins the deck, improving later pulls and ensuring you draw into your power plays. 

Despite the consistent tempo generated by Galakrond, the Tempest’s Battlecry, GalaFrog Shaman is in reality a control deck, one featuring multiple back-breaking combos. In the early game, patience is key. It’s often optimal to do next to nothing until turns 5 and 6, when a combination of Spirit of the Frog, Zentimo and Invocation of Frost (along with the Coin or Mutate) can lead to an avalanche of tutored spells, generated resources and crushing board control. GalaFrog Shaman manages the early game while setting up massive power plays (Galakrond, Electra Stormsurge and [Hearthstone Card (Dragon’s Pack) Not Found], Shudderwock) to pop off in the mid- to late-game. 

Aggro Overload Shaman has found itself mired at the bottom of a crowded Tier 2. Despite a recent upswing in popularity between ranks five and Legend, the archetype has lost ground overall (especially at lower ranks) in the face of immense pressure from Galakrond Warrior, which is a truly terrible matchup. Over a sample of 3,500 games, Aggro Overload Shaman loses to Garrosh in almost 65% of cases, frustrating Thrall’s chances in the lower meta. The resurgence in Galakrond Shaman, a deck to which Aggro loses in about 55% of cases, is even more bad news. 

Warlock

The past week has been a volatile one for Warlock. 

The first half of the week saw a tremendous surge in popularity for Galakrond Zoo Warlock, both at Legend and lower ranks, as the archetype rocketed to a playrate of 8.66% between ranks five and Legend. This growth was no more pronounced than at Legend, where Zoo’s playrate doubled over the span of just four days. 

Over the last few days, however, the archetype has fallen back again, especially at Legend, thanks in large part to pressure from Galakrond Warrior. This is a tough matchup, one Zoo loses in over 60% of cases, which may hold the archetype in check at lower ranks. 

Notwithstanding volatility in playrate, we believe Galakrond Zoo Warlock is set for a meteoric rise; the archetype has already posted excellent results against much of the meta, including major players in Galakrond Shaman and Highlander Galakrond Rogue. 

Perhaps most important of all, Galakrond Zoo Warlock has emerged as a quasi-counter to Galakrond Shaman, which may well prove the format’s most dominant deck. Over a sample of 28,000 games between five and Legend, Gul’dan beats Thrall in more than 52% of cases. That’s by no means an outstanding statistic, but given the fact that Shaman loses to nothing else outside of Holy Wrath Paladin (and, arguably, Quest Hunter), Zoo’s prowess in the matchup is akin to a superpower. If Galakrond Shaman continues to surge, Zoo’s future looks bright. Zoo benefits both from a strong matchup against Galakrond Shaman and a competitive profile against the rest of the field. No other Shaman-counter, not least Holy Wrath Paladin, can say the same.

In a surprising development given the archetype’s lackluster performance, Handlock has also grown in popularity over the past week, surging to a playrate of 7.45% at Legend. No doubt this is a response to several meta factors, including the declining playrate of Face Hunter (a very poor matchup) and the new interest in Galakrond Zoo Warlock (a strong matchup). 

As currently constructed, Handlock’s matchup spread against the meta’s top decks is decidedly mixed. On the one hand, Gul’dan is strong against Galakrond Warrior, winning in over 54% of cases over a sample of 21,000 games between five and Legend. On the other, he fares poorly against Galakrond Shaman (40.2% winrate) and Highlander Galakrond Rogue (44.5%), which together account for around 25% of the lower meta, and 32% of the Legend format.  

But a new build of the archetype, pioneered by Monsanto, has the potential to turn things around. In preliminary numbers, Monsanto’s Handlock has garnered strong results against Highlander Galakrond Rogue, traditionally a poor matchup for Gul’dan. The deck is also linked to an improvement in the matchup against Galakrond Shaman, while retaining positive results against Galakrond Warrior. At first, Monsanto’s new list appears pretty strange, but the strategy becomes clear after playing a few games: control the board through tokens and Plague of Flames while setting up for a burst lethal with Alexstrasza, Soulfire and Nether Breath. It helps tremendously that many of your tokens (namely Leper Gnome and Elven Archer) also happen to deal face damage. 

Monsanto’s list is still undergoing furious refinement; in recent days, he added Leeroy Jenkins for more burst and Swamp Dragon Egg, a strange inclusion that turns out to be wonderfully synergistic, acting as an additional trigger for Plague of Flames while increasing hand size and improving the consistency of Dragon synergies. 

Warrior

Praise Galakrond. The entire Warrior class has been subsumed by Galakrond Warrior, which continues to rank as the most popular deck between ranks five and one, falling behind only Highlander Galakrond Rogue at Legend. In the upper meta, Garrosh commands nearly 18% of the format, though his dominance drops as you move closer to the rank five floor, where Galakrond Warrior currently accounts for a representation of nearly 14%. 

Galakrond Warrior’s matchup spread remains commendable. Garrosh has but a handful of weaknesses, though Galakrond Shaman, a poor matchup, is again gaining in popularity. Only time will tell if Thrall becomes a true impediment to Warrior’s reign. Quest Resurrect Priest is a major stumbling block at lower ranks, but Anduin’s presence thins higher on the ladder. 

We mentioned last week that Galakrond Warrior is split between a tempo variant and a control variant, then predicted a rise in the tempo build featuring [Hearthstone Card (Armorsmith[Hearthstone Card (, Leeroy Jenkins and Bloodsworn Mercenary. 

Happily, our prediction has come true. The tempo build now rivals the control variant in popularity between ranks five and Legend, leading to improvements in the archetype’s winrate against Face Hunter, Highlander Mage, Quest Resurrect Priest, Galakrond Zoo Warlock and, all-important in this meta, Highlander Galakrond Rogue. We expect the tempo build to predominate over the next week as player’s across the ladder learn of its power. 

At the same time, a third variant of the deck, one which seeks to abuse Scion of Ruin, is gaining in representation. At Legend, including at least one Dragon Breeder to copy Scion has become close to standard, but we suggest going all-in with Barista Lynchen as well. In preliminary numbers, the full Scion package has performed extremely well, especially in Warrior mirrors and against Quest Resurrect Priest.

Pirate Warrior continues to perform exceptionally, but the player base seems to be losing interest. Even so, the archetype this week again earns a spot at the bottom of Tier 1 on the back of strong matchups against the majority of the meta. We’re downgrading Pirate Warrior’s power level a bit this week, in large part because a resurgent Galakrond Shaman could spell tough times ahead for the archetype; over a sample of 36,000 games between five and Legend, Pirate Warrior loses to Galakrond Shaman in more than 58% of cases. 

Our featured build has become standard at both Legend and lower ranks:

With a batch of nerfs just behind us, Hearthstone Senior Game Designer Dean “Iksar” Ayala has already announced that a new slate of changes focused on the power of Galakrond decks are on the way. Are you looking forward to another intervention in the meta? Happy with the way things are? Hoping to see Galakrond knocked down a peg? Let us know in the comments!