Although Scholomance Academy has only been out for a day, we have seen the emergence of many powerful decks defined from these meta-breaking cards. Thus, let's get our prediction blindfolds on and predict the top 10 cards that Blizzard will nerf over the upcoming weeks!
In the consideration of this list, the cards judged are not judged based solely on their power level, but on how polarizing it would be to face against these cards specifically in these decks. Without further ado, let's jump right into it!
Disclaimer: Do note that due to the meta instability, it is highly recommended not to craft any cards currently.
OutOfCards is not responsible for any dust lost in crafting these cards if Blizzard chooses to buff Desk Imp instead!
#1 and #2 - Twilight Runner and Guardian Animals
While these cards are powerful individually to play on curve, the synergistic value of both effectively breaks Guardian Animals as an Ultimate Infestation 2.0.
| Properties | Ultimate Infestation | Guardian Animals (summoning Twilight Runner and Teacher's Pet) |
| Mana Cost | 10 | 7 |
| Damage | 5 | At least 9 damage to minions due to damage if Twilight Runner and Teacher's Pet are summoned. |
| Cards Drawn | 5 | 2 cards from Guardian Animals that is played for free. 2 cards from Twilight Runner. |
| Armour | 5 | Nil |
| Minion Body | 5/5 Ghoul | If both minions survive, at least a 5/1 and a 4/1 body. |
It is worth noting that although draw RNG can ruin the Guardian Animals combo, the payoff is tremendous if you are able to pull it off. Who knew recruiting Beasts and giving them Rush could be so strong? I'm sure Possessed Lackey did.
Deck Spotlight
Nerf Predictions
- Twilight Runner will get the Ancient of Lore treatment and get its card text changed to "...draw one card" instead.
- Guardian Animals' Mana cost will go up from 7 to 8.
Other Comments
- Survival of the Fittest - In our opinion, the card is balanced for its mana cost if played on curve. However, it is worth noting that the card is the huge payoff of cheating the card out earlier due to other cards such as Kael'thas Sunstrider. Thus, we believe that it will not be touched by the nerf bat this expansion.
#3 - Lightning Bloom
Looks like the community was right all along! As the second most-top rated card of the set in our Community Compendium at a score of 83, who knew that pre-nerf Innervate. which was used in every Druid deck in existence, would now be used in every Druid AND Shaman deck instead?
Deck Spotlight
P.S - List of decks containing Lightning Bloom is non-exhaustive, considering that every Shaman and Druid deck is playing it now.
Nerf Predictions
- Lightning Bloom's effect will get changed entirely. Blizzard, may we suggest that it be changed to "Deal 3 damage, gain 1 Mana Crystal this turn. Overload: (1)" instead?
#4 - Secret Passage
Standing as the king of the set in our Community Compendium with a score of 85, we have... this. Drawing 5 cards at 1-mana is pretty absurd, as it is able to trigger Combo cards that you have drawn as well to act as a finisher. This card is an auto-include in every Rogue deck currently, ranging from the hyper-aggressive Stealth Rogue to Tempo Rogues.
Deck Spotlight
Nerf Predictions
- Secret Passage's effect will get reduced from "... 5 cards from your deck" to "... 4 cards from your deck".
#5 and #6 - Raise Dead and Flesh Giant
As card-game professionals will say, Health is just a resource until there's one hit point remaining. We'd argue that the cost of Raise Dead, at 3 Health currently, is too little for its' effect of adding two great minions to your hand. Furthermore, it synergizes with the Soul Fragment mechanics and the support cards, which would result in an easily-discounted Flesh Giant early on.
Deck Spotlight
Nerf Predictions
- Either Raise Dead's Health cost will go up from 3 to 5, or its' card effect will be changed from "Return two friendly minions..." to "Return a friendly minion..." instead.
- Flesh Giant's Mana cost will go up from 8 to 10.
#7 and #8 - High Abbess Alura and Goody Two-Shields
The effects of both cards' Spellburst is insane in gaining tempo on the board, which is why they make it onto the list of potential nerfed cards.
For Alura, we'd say that even her low-roll of First Day of School isn't too bad if she is played on curve, while her high-roll spells such as Libram of Hope could essentially end the game if the opponent has no way to deal with it.
For Goody Two-Shields, if played on-curve, her 4-Attack could potentially trade into 3 early-game minions with the Spellburst'd Divine Shield, thus setting up the board heavily in the Paladin's favour in the mid-game.
Deck Spotlight
Nerf Predictions
- High Abbess Alura's Mana cost will go up from 4 to 5.
- Goody Two-Shields' Attack will go down from 4 to 3.
Other Comments
- Blessing of Authority - While the effect of buffing minions by +8/+8 signifies a threat that your opponents must be dealt with immediately, currently, our view is that Pure Paladin has too many good cards in the current rotation to add Blessing of Authority into the list.
#9 and #10 - Tour Guide and Voracious Reader
Slow decks hate them while Aggro decks love them! Tour Guide offers Hunters an early shot at shooting your opponent's face, while Voracious Reader allows you to draw at most 3 cards a turn if you have managed to hit your opponent in the face successfully with all of your cards. All in all, if the Hunter is really lucky with their game, they could close the game up before their Mana hits 8!
Deck Spotlight
In MrYagut's words... "Face, face, we just need to go face."
Nerf Predictions
- Tour Guide's Mana cost will go up from 1 to 2, or its' card effect is changed to "Your next Hero Power costs (1)" instead.
- Voracious Reader's Mana cost will go up from 2 to 3.
Honourable Mention - Kael'Thas Sunstrider
The high-roll potential of getting a 0-cost Guardian Animals or Survival of the Fittest makes the match very un-fun for the opponent. Furthermore, the design of the card poses a card design limitation on printing interesting high-cost spells. Thus, we predict that in this expansion cycle, Kael'Thas will once again receive the aforementioned Nerf Bat from our disciplinarian... not that he's been hit hard enough in the Outlands.
Nerf Predictions
- Kael'Thas Sunstrider will get The Caverns Below treatment and get its' card effect changed from "...every three spells" to "...every four spells" instead.
We can't wait to see how many of our predictions turn out to be... right? Currently, our prediction rate is 100%, considering that we have never done this before!
If your nerf list synergizes or differs from ours, do post a comment down below and let's discuss!
Comments
I'd have to imagine Kael'thas would get nerfed again. I have heard/seen the Druid stats aren't actually amazing, BUT I think Kael'thas creates and encourages a really unfun style of play with it's mana cheating. I don't know enough about design to be an expert on it or w/e, but I think it should be "your third spell you cast on your turn costs (1)." That way it's not "every 3rd spell" and whatever spell you casts still *costs* something. When you make expensive cards free it defeats the purpose of making them expensive.
Gibberling Druid is absolutely busted, and while credit goes to Lightning Bloom and Voracious Reader, I also think Gibberling might just be too nuts. It's very much a "60% of the time of the time, it works every time" kind of deck (actually 52% odds of getting it in your opening hand if you fully mulligan without the coin).
The only reason that these hyper aggression based decks are standing on two legs rightnow is because the majority of people are experimenting with different decks for each class and figuring out what works and what doesn’t. Aggro always reigns supreme because their gameplay never really changes “me go face? Yes”. Once the meta stabilises and we get some more optimised control decks coming to the surface, aggro will be knocked down a peg (hopefully).
That's certainly the cycle we have been used to since Frozen Throne slowed things down by giving super powerful late game tools (most notably hero cards), but the reverse was true for pretty much the entire time between Naxx and Frozen Throne, when HS was locked in what felt like a never ending aggro meta. (Old Gods provided a glorious respite, but that didn't last long).
Importantly, Outland broke that cycle and brought us our first real aggro meta for years. If Scholomance is going to change that, it needs a lot of tools that help control out, but instead most of the strong cards look to be helping aggro out more than anyone else. The main exception to this is druid, which certainly doesn't qualify as aggro, but whatever it is aggro seems the best way to beat it, so it isn't really helping matters.
So I personally expect aggro to keep standing just fine unless nerfs hit it.
I think Secret Passage is highly overrated. It'ss not 1-mana draw 5, because most of the time you don't have enough mana to use everything of what you get anyways, even in low curve aaggro decks.
It also clashes with Voracious Reader
Speaking of which, I don't believe Voracious Reader will get hit anytime soon either. It's just good enough to be useful...hell, I'd say it's necessary because aggressive decks are already heavily dependant on class specific draw option, so having a neutral one at least helps deck diversity.
I'M pretty amused about Flesh Giant though. It's like they learned absolutely nothing and just fused Mountain Giant and Molten Giant into a single abomination.
Its likely not a problem now because most aggro rogue list is pretty disjointed. And losing that shadowstep + Leeroy combo really hit it hard. It'll likely take a few weeks before someone comes out with a more consistent list. For my own part, just having 2x prep in the list makes it a whole lot easier to start spending those 5 cards, thinning out the deck fast.
Voracious Reader isn't going to get nerfed. I kinda forgot how disruptive having 2 Jeeves in the hand was back then, and I'm experiencing it now. Basically if you somehow have both readers in hand, you're not likely to be winning that match.
Only secret passage is broken AF
nerf prediction for Kael'thas Sunstrider doesn't fit his theme of 3 spheres. I predict that they will simply give him the Dragonqueen Alexstrasza treatment making third spells cost (1). Its a small nerf but it is a 1 turn delay for every Druid and it might be enough to not kill the deck.
Glide, anyone?
I lost count how many times I just concede using control priest, just the moment I have all good cards in hand, and it all dissapear.
I actually don't think Druid's problem is Guardian Animals or Survival of the Fittest, but rather Lightning Bloom, Kael'thas Sunstrider and Overgrowth. Because of Kael'thas Sunstrider, Blizzard can't print good low-cost and high-cost spells for any class, or else we see the shenanigans that are happening right now. An interesting nerf idea for Lightning Bloom I saw on a forum thread was instead of 0 mana gain 2 mana crystals & overload 2, why not something like 2 mana gain 4 mana crystals & overload 2? It's the same effect; you get 2 bonus mana and you get overloaded the next turn, but you need 2 mana to play it, meaning you can no longer turn 1 Coin/Innervate > Lightning Bloom > Overgrowth, or Lightning Bloom with no mana left. This nerf eliminates some problematic features of the card such as being a 0 mana fodder for Kael'thas Sunstrider and early-turn mana cheating, but keeps in some of the card's fantasy, like Lightning Bloom into Kael'thas Sunstrider on turn 5. If Blizzard changes Kael'thas Sunstrider also to only work while it's on the board, you can get rid of that interaction too.
I think another thing for consideration is that Kael'thas Sunstrider works multiple times in a turn, and with Druid's multitude of 0 mana spells, it's very likely they'll be able to play big spells for free many times as well. I think Blizzard has tried recently to make 0 mana stuff a prominent feature, but it turned out to be very very strong. A simple nerf to "every third spell you cast costs 1" would be pretty drastic and might be a bit too harsh combined with other nerfs.
That said, this expansion is off the charts in terms of power level, and most classes have a competitively viable deck that is strong in its own right. I don't think Secret Passage is as problematic as people think; it's early into the new expansion, the meta will adjust to these hyper-aggro decks. The hyper-aggro face Rogue has no board stabilisation, meaning it has to keep tempo throughout the game until the opponent dies. The instant the opponent can start efficiently removing minions, the game is lost for Rogue. It's a fragile game plan that works now because everyone's trying new decks and being very greedy about it, and none of the decks have been optimised.
Considering the fact that none of these decks are optimised, isn't it really early to call for nerfs? All classes have at least one deck that feels strong, and yes, maybe Druid's antics are a bit unbearable at times, but this expansion's power level is through the roof, and it's genuinely been the most fun I've had in Hearthstone. It's literally been one day, people don't know what the best deck is. People haven't built their decks to counter matchups, they've built them to try out the new cards and the new mechanics. Maybe after the meta stabilises, these cards won't be as problematic as they seem.
They could have honestly printed Lightning Bloom to simply refresh 2 mana crystals instead of gain. I think that was the original intention but someone in the team may have thought it would be a good idea to make it OP now and nerf it later.
Haven’t played enough yet to have an opinion on nerfs. Been really enjoying Weapon Rogue though. Running a Krastinov, which I don’t see in many lists, but he feels good. One game as soon as I got him online with my Self Sharpening Sword the opponent immediately quit.
I have 7 tour guides and a golden Voracious Reader so here's hoping you're right.
It may be a bit early, but its clear as day to anyone whose been playing that something needs to be done about druid. Its not so much that druidstone has just returned, but we are now facing situations where the two cards Lightning Bloom and Overgrowth are basically destroying even decks that are meant to counter them. I personally think that its perhaps a little too early to start planning nerfs, but I think that kael'thas situation has got to be looked at. Basically both shaman and druids are running this card, and its not hard to guess why. That down, I think we can easily forgive Guardian Animals and Survival of the Fittest, neither of which come close to the stupidity of cheating a massive Kael'thas Sunstrider into survival of the fittest.
As for paladin. Goody Two-Shields have been predictably impactful, but that's assuming paladin manages to get ahead in the early turns, which isnt really that easy. High Abbess Alura is also similarly strong, but that's a massive coin toss. It could just as easily be Libram of Justice, as much as it could be hope. And to set it up on turn 4 means you have to keep on a 0 mana spell. Not easily done. Given how strong Tour Guide and Voracious Reader are, I think nerfing even a single card from paladin just makes the class completely unplayable. Paladin is basically the most 'fair' class currently in hearthstone, so they don't need any changes.
Raise Dead and Flesh Giants are hardly problems. Raise dead is only in particularly stupid in rez priest, but even that requires that awful combo of Psychopomp and Convincing Infiltrator to first show up. I wouldn't change anything here too.
I heard that Tour Guide and Secret Passage is ripping wild apart with odd rogue. But team5 have always put standard first over wild, so I don't expect anything to be done about this now. Aggro rogue is good, but in my opinion, fair. Its nowhere near as powerful as many have thought, but that might be because its not polished. I think we can leave this off for now and come back later. Its not like team5 is adverse to those 5 nerf bats per expansion these days anyway.
The expansion just came out yesterday. Aren't these calls a bit early?
I think they'll nerf Kaelthas to spells costing 1 instead of 0. Kaelthas is just broken especially in druid. Change Kaelthas and you nerfed druid for good
I wouldn't include #7 and #8 for now, maybe even #5 and #6, but every other card is problematic due to mana cheating or massive card draw. Also if they changed (0) cost generated cards to (1), shouldn't it be fair to do the same for kael' thas?
I think Kael'thas might instead be "the third spell" every turn. instead of "every three", because three is improtant for flavor.
I learned my lesson after the last expansion and am just sitting on all of my dust from extra cards for when there's the early rounds of nerfs. Druid's definitely given me the most headaches very early on, though Enrage Warrior has helped me pull off some fun wins even against a couple of crazy druid decks.
I'd be up for nerfing Kael'thas as follows: The third spell you cast each turn costs 0 (means it only works once a turn, will put a stop to some really stupid shenanigans in Wild). Also Kael's effect would only count when he's on the board, so if you play two spells to ramp up to playing him, you're at 0/3 for his effect. Also wrecks Mechathun Warlock which consistently wins around turn 8 if you're playing anything remotely controlly.